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Model output discussion - mid January


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham

So whilst people are wondering what will happen in the Pacific in a weeks time the GFS is throwing out a rather potent but short lived cold spell with the potential for some white stuff even in the South East 

gfs-0-168.png?6

gfs-0-192.png?6

A feature of this winter is low to track over the UK form the North West.

Also of note is that by day 5 the cold air is back in Scotland and working its way south. Must be having a good skiing season up there

Edited by frosty ground
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Next Thursday's GFS, which is not three bad, for those of us snow-starved denizens of the Saarf-east!

h850t850eu.png

Maybe better than the average toppler, though!

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
1 hour ago, jvenge said:

Worth adding that it has been wrong for the last 5 days about that forecast position into P4. It has repeatedly been keen for a strong move into P4, only to stall in 3. Therefore, sincerely, considering it is consistently wrong at T24, I'm gonna say that forecast is fairly useless.

The point of my post there was that the observed point is at last into P4 rather than P3. 

It has been going too far with the day zero point yes, so tomorrow's observation will likely remain just on the P4 side of the dividing line. 

As this is the transition phase this does at least show some appetite for a move toward something more Nino-like, though it is tentative to say the least.

I believe it's the reason why we're seeing more of an EPO ridge and downstream amplification options (compared to a few days back) prior to any MJO P6-7 influence. 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

No clusters this morning :( 

but looking at the individual ECM ensemble members, worth noting that many build quite a decent Atlantic block up to Iceland between D8 and D12, allowing a half-decent cold snap for the first week of February. After that, some progress to Scandi whilst others collapse completely over Europe, but such detail probably too far away to consider.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
48 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

South east England get snow this time that's if gfs is on the money..:cold:

IMG_0453.PNG

Pressure looks pretty high....don't think we'd see a great deal more than a few dandruff flakes and a raw wind out of that.

gfsnh-10-132.png?6

Looking quite toasty up there!

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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
16 minutes ago, mb018538 said:


gfsnh-10-132.png?6

Looking quite toasty up there!

And at only T+132 as well. Makes a change from the T+384 strat charts that we see. Is something finally happening up there? Best head over to the Strat thread to find out!

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
1 hour ago, Nick F said:

Steve Murr sausage a la 06z, the SE that's missed out on the cold recently gets a turn late next week with -10C T850s, pity it's unlikely to verify at t+216!

GFSOPEU06_216_2.thumb.png.0932171fa8585aa9b917c7edfa22abb5.png

I hope it doesn't verify...12 hours later we're bathed in sunshine whilst they are digging themselves out in Spain!

 

Nothing exciting in that Strat chart IMO..its not strong enough to knock the vortex off its perch......yet.  

Edited by KTtom
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
1 hour ago, Paul_1978 said:

And at only T+132 as well. Makes a change from the T+384 strat charts that we see. Is something finally happening up there? Best head over to the Strat thread to find out!

Round two at 240z 

gfsnh-10-240.png?6

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

“If Candlemas be fair and clear
There’ll be two winters in one year!”

image.thumb.png.eb122ad60545637ff0778aff7a2cc098.png

image.thumb.png.e65516d4d9f02a212b9b5f495ba98284.png

:p:clapping:

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

These predicted warmings in the upper strat aren’t doing much more than displacing the vortex a bit towards n Scandi

Yes  thought as much but every little helps. Hoping MJO  can help further by moving through 7-8-1 but I know it does not guarantee anything. Surely we can get lucky, not that our Scottish friend are bothered :wink:

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

ECM ens - steady as she goes.

ensplume_small.gif
GEFS - uh, did someone give it a boot up the behind?

The model's gone from the least to most enthusiastic in the space of two days. Convective feedback error perhaps? 

 

Regardless, P5 and P6 under Nina promote ridges with an axis crossing the UK so it's encouraging if you wish to have a more pronounced break from the wet and windy weather, although the models seem keen to modify this at least a little as a result of the goings on in the stratosphere and consequential vortex movement.

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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
5 hours ago, abbie123 said:

South east England get snow this time that's if gfs is on the money..:cold:

IMG_0453.PNG

I will only start to BELIEVE  it when the countdown  gets down to 1 hour away ?

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Boo. Hiss. Another near miss!:cray:

h850t850eu.png

i don't want to hear the rest of that rap....

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3 successive runs from the GFS where the wave height@192 is insufficient to cover the ground needed to get the ridge to Scandi - being that it gets cut off over the North Sea-

not to much to be excited about ATM - although some time left for change.

Its interesting people are still hanging their hats on the modelling of the MJO when the GFS can’t even get it right at day 1-2...

s

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

3 successive runs from the GFS where the wave height@192 is insufficient to cover the ground needed to get the ridge to Scandi - being that it gets cut off over the North Sea-

not to much to be excited about ATM - although some time left for change.

Its interesting people are still hanging their hats on the modelling of the MJO when the GFS can’t even get it right at day 1-2...

s

Yep nothing interesting at all this side of the 192 hour charts Steve

Unless gfs-1-132.png?12

There will be no Easterly this year! save your self the trouble of looking for one all the time.

Edited by frosty ground
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Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
18 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

A downgrade on the 12z for GFS around the mid term 192hrs, too much energy going in the northern arm unfortunately

It looks like a repeat of what has happened all season with the azores ridgeing up getting flattened then a repeat there is nothing to suggest anything different this time its been like this all season there is just to much energy to our norh

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Yep nothing interesting at all this side of the 192 hour charts Steve

Unless gfs-1-132.png?12

There will be no Easterly this year! save your self the trouble of looking for one all the time.

There might be further down the line, and when there is brutal cold near by as well.

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Posted
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
  • Location: Chepstow Wales

An interesting pressure analysis across Europe tonight, very deep cyclone along the Norwegian coast, resulting in excessive rainfall / snowfall over west-central Norway. Further south, a high pressure system dominates Mediterranean and Balkan peninsula. A small upper low with weak surface pressure remains over far SE Mediterranean and affecting Middle East.

27337370_2159370410952715_4755397170743950731_n.png

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