Model output discussion - mid January

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, doctor32 said:

That is ridiculous really... at least the realistic one is good for me, although i already have lying snow so could just be showing that haha

Hope this is just a mild blip and the models show some more blocking that is favourable to the uk soon

BTW of course I'm not saying there wont be any lying snow outside the areas on the Euro4, you can never get that kind of accuracy with these kind of things but a model the other day had heavy snow with uppers of between 4 and 8c - which is just plain ridiculous.

[Midlands Ice Age]

17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

BTW of course I'm not saying there wont be any lying snow outside the areas on the Euro4, you can never get that kind of accuracy with these kind of things but a model the other day had heavy snow with uppers of between 4 and 8c - which is just plain ridiculous.

Yep Feb very true...

It was for today as it happens.

AND it was for the Midlands...

Guess what it snowed and some of it  was very heavy (though the uppers were not +8, but +2).

 Strange thing is coincidence.

 

I must admit that it did not give much more than a few cms as it thawed on landing.

Definitely odd though.

The same model also forecast widespread snow for tomorrow, for a good portion of mid and northern Britain for a good few hours.

Coincidence?

I do wonder   if there was a problem with the reporting programs.

Perhaps it is the only way to get snow in the UK?

MIA

Edited January 20, 2018 by Midlands Ice Age

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Yep Feb very true...

It was for today as it happens.

AND it was for the Midlands...

Guess what it snowed and some of it  was very heavy (though the uppers were not +8, but +2).

 Strange thing is coincidence.

 

I must admit that it did not give much more than a few cms as it thawed on landing.

Definitely odd though.

The same model also forecast widespread snow for tomorrow, for a good portion of mid and northern Britain for a good few hours.

Coincidence?

I do wonder   if there was a problem with the reporting programs.

Perhaps it is the only way to get snow in the UK?

MIA

The uppers were not +2c -they were below freezing.

 

EDIT : or at least they were on analysis charts at 12 oclock.

Edited January 20, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

I’m here....

liking the swathe of nothingness to the north on the ECM - 

Still 7-8 weeks of snow potential for the UK remember !

A model saying......where do I go?

 

BFTP

[Froze were the Days]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I know - although that's 2 very cold runs in last 24 hours, the best way to view them for a forecasting POV is ensemble mean on the NOAA website but although just for fun, if another few of those were to come out over next couple of days thus then shifting the mean towards blocking then I would begin to get more interested, thee CFS is generally garbage but it does usually cotton on around now for next month when cold has verified in the past.

12z cfs runs similar again to the 0z but the cold doesn't last as long but very similar synoptics to a point at the beginning of February.

[bobbydog]

compared to the 12z,

the 18z has more amplification than an AC/DC gig.

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Here comes the 2018 blue touch paper alighteth moment -18z.

[feb1991blizzard]

1mb near or actual reversal.

[Matthew Gill]

Skull and crossbones on the gfs 

 

[comet]

It could all go pear shaped of course but the GFS runs seem to be getting their act together with regard the strat warming. After a week or more of downgrades the runs now seem to be consistent or even intensifying the warming and we are now talking about the 10 day range not right at the end of FI.

The change to cold or very cold for the end of the month onwards into Feb could be starting to gain momentum again. although this could be due to the model seeing a strong MJO phase 7-8 response but we know how unreliable these forecasts have been throughout the winter so far. If we do see a strong MJO response then watch the other indices such as GWO, AAM etc falling into place.

Edited January 20, 2018 by comet

[feb1991blizzard]

I will have a cluster 6 please.

[Nick F]

Trend to dampen the earlier MLB signal in medium range to more of a Azores high extension into western mainland Europe on today’s runs, more especially the EC ops but also the 12z GEFS and EPS mean by day 10.

12z EPS clusters certainly looking more Atlantic trough dominated at day 10

Though the 18z GFS op appears to have gone back to higher pressure over the UK once again, when it looked like the 12z was trending away from this idea like EC. 

The brief Nly this Friday looking a bit more potent though with each subsequent run, 18z has -10C T850 into far N of Scotland. 

 

[Nick F]

15 minutes ago, comet said:

The change to cold or very cold for the end of the month onwards into Feb could be starting to gain momentum again. although this could be due to the model seeing a strong MJO phase 7-8 response but we know how unreliable these forecasts have been throughout the winter so far. If we do see a strong MJO response then watch the other indices such as GWO, AAM etc falling into place.

IMO we are unlikely to see cold or very cold for end of this month spurred by the MJO, as there is a lagged response after    the MJO moves into more favourable 7/8/1 ... so could be looking at 10-15th Feb before we see the pattern change to become favourable for HLB, if current forecasts for the MJO to move at decent amplitude into these phases is correct.

Of course, like you mention, there are other drivers that may work against MJO or may alter the pattern before any feedback from the MJO imprints on the upper flow patterns to make a change.

[feb1991blizzard]

Deep FI I know but 18z GEFS show promise right at the end and the ECM London ones dip a bit,

[booferking]

Lots of blocking showing up in gefs 18z Greenland highs and Easterlys but there was one that was epic not far of what cfs was shown earlier.

[BlackburnChris]

2 hours ago, Nick F said:

IMO we are unlikely to see cold or very cold for end of this month spurred by the MJO, as there is a lagged response after    the MJO moves into more favourable 7/8/1 ... so could be looking at 10-15th Feb before we see the pattern change to become favourable for HLB, if current forecasts for the MJO to move at decent amplitude into these phases is correct.

Of course, like you mention, there are other drivers that may work against MJO or may alter the pattern before any feedback from the MJO imprints on the upper flow patterns to make a change.

EMON yes ... but most other models stall in phase 6 

[snowray]

11 minutes ago, BlackburnChris said:

EMON yes ... but most other models stall in phase 6 

Don't we still need the good old SSW before we can even think about decent northern blocking? Mid Lat block like an Atlantic HP looks more likely to mre as we go into February.

[Daniel*]

14 minutes ago, snowray said:

Don't we still need the good old SSW before we can even think about decent northern blocking? Mid Lat block like an Atlantic HP looks more likely to mre as we go into February.

Absolutely not and by the looks of things it’s not needed! No real purple monster there and it’s being kept NW of where we don’t want it. A rarity to see how slack it is to the north/northwest, ideal for blocking to suddenly form. No blockbuster of a block but even a slither of heights can be just what’s needed.

[snowray]

13 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Absolutely not and by the looks of things it’s not needed! No real purple monster there and it’s being kept NW of where we don’t want it. A rarity to see how slack it is to the north/northwest, ideal for blocking to suddenly form. No blockbuster of a block but even a slither of heights can be just what’s needed.

Yh thats what I mean we could certainly get a slither but I was talking about serious Northern blocking like this chart that was posted above. 

[Cheese Rice]

6 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

BTW of course I'm not saying there wont be any lying snow outside the areas on the Euro4, you can never get that kind of accuracy with these kind of things but a model the other day had heavy snow with uppers of between 4 and 8c - which is just plain ridiculous.

I think your getting a bit confused between cold in the upper atmosphere and surface cold/inversion at varying levels.  

The 18z Euro4 has uppers of 4.c and snow as an inversion stops the mixing. 

[feb1991blizzard]

12 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

I think your getting a bit confused between cold in the upper atmosphere and surface cold/inversion at varying levels.  

The 18z Euro4 has uppers of 4.c and snow as an inversion stops the mixing. 

You can have uppers close to freezing but not that high, it cant turn from water to crystal a few feet off the surface it doesn't work like that surely?? it would be freezing rain.

[That ECM]

When there is this much difference in t240 charts then much is to be resolved. The deflating thing from a coldies perspective is that when there is an attempt for heights to build a system on a strong jet comes and flattens it. Ecm chart shows this situation. 

[Cloud 10]

Poor agreement between ECM and GEFS means for the end of January,at least for the UK,with ECM going for deep troughing.

 

Certainly hasn't been a boring winter.

 

ECM..GEFS..

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended remains pretty much the same as yesterday with a mild moist air coming in from the west it won't be cold be unlikely to see much sunshine either with a lot of cloud and some rain at times

[MR EXTREMES]

The gem is the closest your get this morning to possible progression to something little colder with heights being pulled out to our southwest.

Other than this broadly speaking some more unsettled weather this week then settling by the end of this week.

Further on not alot to go on la Nina still dictating the atmospheric chaos.

As it stands Feb looking pretty mediocre.

 

Edited January 21, 2018 by MR EXTREMES