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Model output discussion - mid January


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In days of old, When nights were cold, And models weren't invented, We might have hoped, we might have prayed, But we didn't drive ourselves demented.   The MJO the QBO,

netweather members celebrate when the long-awaited easterly finally arrives...

00z EC showing interesting battleground snow event for the north and west next Tuesday, as Atlantic frontal system moves in from the west and bumps into the cold air If only my wife could u

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4 minutes ago, John Michael How said:

The only big snow events in the SE in the last few years 2010 2009 etc have all come from the East/ENE

Atlantic air bumping into cold from the east/NE, yes. Unless I'm remembering wrong I'm pretty sure 09 & 10 our major snow falls were frontal.

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ECM op was actually a slight outlier against its ensembles, but not a great amount of difference between the op cluster and the others except a slightly stronger block to the east

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018020100_168.

The op run looks by far the keenest to bring milder air back in by T240 (note SW-NEly direction in the lines towards the UK) - many other runs look like driving the Atlantic trough down through the UK and into Europe again, which will probably limit the extend of mild air encroaching:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018020100_228.

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Gfs 06z still looking nice to get the cold in, my only dislike would be that the first disruption of the trough doesn't look as nice as i might have hoped, unlike last nights 18z it doesn't really drop South to bolster our low heights over Europe.

Obviously this is just one run though and as far as i can see were doing just fine for now.

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45 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

@ just 96hrs an most uk looking into the freezer...

Big cold spell looks nailed!!!

gfs-1-96.png

That's done it......

image.thumb.png.e9ff2d9f0d10fb6594892dab8c402f02.png

:D

Don't worry, FI to the rescue

image.thumb.png.7a2512f226e60e3db558041ef3a5f2b0.png

Feb should be an 'interesting' month and not in the Steve Davis sense :laugh:

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I’m with dave on this - can’t recall a set up where we were approached from both directions by such low uppers 

the -10c isotherm probability from the eps T132 illustrates nicely 

A762F02C-B5D1-45BC-A8E3-321E67890098.thumb.jpeg.f0b6fed99e87fb2f213079c4b408d57d.jpeg

1646E92D-E4A5-4B7E-9433-D4F1627EEF1E.jpeg

Is that a ramp Blue :D

 

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10 minutes ago, John Michael How said:

The only big snow events in the SE in the last few years 2010 2009 etc have all come from the East/ENE

2012 gave me about 6 inches but it was a breakdown event.

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6 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Atlantic air bumping into cold from the east/NE, yes. Unless I'm remembering wrong I'm pretty sure 09 & 10 our major snow falls were frontal.

the major snow event in Feb. 09 which brought very heavy snow to London &. Home Counties was not frontal at all but easterly lake effect snow

off the north sea..

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Good to see this level of consistency in the strat and moving closer day by day. We haven't had this for a number of years, it'll be interesting to see how it affects the second half of February going into March.

gfsnh-10-312_mzs1.png

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3 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

the major snow event in Feb. 09 which brought very heavy snow to London &. Home Counties was not frontal at all but easterly lake effect snow

off the north sea..

Yes I recall that event.

It was a Sunday when -13C upper temps spread W and during the evening hrs the Thames Streamer developed and bought snow to the areas you mention inicluding thundersnow.

The snow I recieved during that period was frontal when 8 inches fell in 4hrs from the S.

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19 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I’m with dave on this - can’t recall a set up where we were approached from both directions by such low uppers 

the -10c isotherm probability from the eps T132 illustrates nicely 

A762F02C-B5D1-45BC-A8E3-321E67890098.thumb.jpeg.f0b6fed99e87fb2f213079c4b408d57d.jpeg

1646E92D-E4A5-4B7E-9433-D4F1627EEF1E.jpeg

That’s a fantastic strong signal for some deep cold affecting Eastern / SE England. :cold:

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Exceptional charts again today, GFS 6z show 850mb temps of -8 / -9C for Wales next Tuesday afternoon but at the same time the BBC forecast for here in Tenby is showing 8C with unbroken sunshine. Now either the models are disagreeing with each other or that's one hell of a very steep lapse rate which may end up triggering off some heavy, thundery showers! 

image.jpeg

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So developments this morning seem to be favouring more & more of low pressure sliding south at 120 ( variation on location ) but post that another push west of deep cold out of the continent-

PTB 5 is prob the best case for all concerned

120

2CA587BC-EE72-4209-9DF6-915D8B2669D1.thumb.png.1b6cf23048e74022ce8856320909a50b.png

144

A4221475-3714-493B-9655-434E463C5EED.thumb.png.95786580fc49e879f5f083b337af9cf8.png

 

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Support from the 06z ensembles for a cold spell lasting until 11th Feb is pretty much solid. We have a few members go a little less cold temporarily around the 9th as a weather system tries to move in, but at the moment it stays below the threshold for snow (at least further East)

ENS.thumb.png.27949cc5e64d6304ba7e50836bb6c8cf.png

That is a solid set of ensembles for cold, probably the best this winter. A fair amount of scatter in the long-range as you'd expect but even then it doesn't exactly scream milder air returning.

EDIT: These are yesterdays ensembles. I cannot get used to the new Wetterzentrale layout. Here are the 00z ensembles, still a solid set for cold.

GFSENS00_52_0_205.thumb.png.950f3bca6f04c3f4cda30efe8fa63aa4.png

Edited by Danny*
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15 minutes ago, Danny* said:

Support from the 06z ensembles for a cold spell lasting until 11th Feb is pretty much solid. We have a few members go a little less cold temporarily around the 9th as a weather system tries to move in, but at the moment it stays below the threshold for snow (at least further East)

ENS.thumb.png.27949cc5e64d6304ba7e50836bb6c8cf.png

That is a solid set of ensembles for cold, probably the best this winter. A fair amount of scatter in the long-range as you'd expect but even then it doesn't exactly scream milder air returning.

Yesterdays suite pal...

31-01-18

 

Todays below..perhaps a milder blip b4 droping off again...but mild may not even get in!!??

Most members want to stay cold cold cold...?

MT8_London_ens (2).png

Edited by tight isobar
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19 minutes ago, Dafydd Tomos said:

Exceptional charts again today, GFS 6z show 850mb temps of -8 / -9C for Wales next Tuesday afternoon but at the same time the BBC forecast for here in Tenby is showing 8C with unbroken sunshine. Now either the models are disagreeing with each other or that's one hell of a very steep lapse rate which may end up triggering off some heavy, thundery showers! 

image.jpeg

Perhaps UKMO is showing less cold upper air at that time? Anyway Tuesday is a long way off in terms of weather forecasting and a lot can and probably will change by then. We might end up somewhere in between UKMO & that GFS 6z by the time Tuesday comes. 

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3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Nice to see some Purbs going very cold again towards the end of the run, one to watch

graphe_ens3_aip9.gif 

yes Karlos  Those are a cold set.  Even more so when you consider its London.  Going on for 14 days with -5 or below uppers. Not to be sniffed at.

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