Model output discussion - mid January

[tight isobar]

Just now, shaky said:

Question is is that better then the 00z at the same time!!

Micro-scale...YES..

[Daniel*]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

Was going by the IKON euro chart

Strange that oh well I understand why. Regardless how few hours faster it comes in it’s decent proper cold air from E reaching London and other surrounding eastern counties that is now secure it’s been a long time..

[Daniel*]

Much colder air in quicker quite noticeable..

06z  00z

[SMU]

^^^

GFS 06z is in for 81/84 - Also I can see the Atlantic is tilted more Southwards v the 00z So it will make less eastward progression this run-

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Micro-scale...YES..

 

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Micro-scale...YES..

In they come..v-decent height placement.

[Fingers]

Cold air definitely getting further west quicker on this run, -10 encroaching in to Wales T84 rather than London. 

[SMU]

The Scandi High now reaches more of the UK at 96 - not the isoline shape over us-

that bump means the Atlantic will struggle to get across....

[tight isobar]

@ just 96hrs an most uk looking into the freezer...

Big cold spell looks nailed!!!

[ukpaul]

Both West and East stronger this time, squeezing out that area of warmer 850s from the 00z. A slightly more positive tilt helps in advancing them both.

EDIT: Although the East loses power and the Atlantic moves through more quickly. Still cold, though, albeit the coldest 850s not getting as far west.

Edited February 1, 2018 by ukpaul

[TEITS]

Putting aside the excitement. I am finding the chart below to be so incredibly unusual. I cannot recall anything in the past when we have such a pool of cold air to our E & W.

[Jemma Croton]

Another blinding run. I’m keeping track and it’s now 8 solid runs supporting this prognosis with upgrades. I’d be very surprised if this doesn’t now verify

[tight isobar]

Quite incredable!!!..

Massive cold pool extending well into the atlantic.

And another easterly shot possibly lining up..as we rotate the flow...madness...

[Daniel*]

T138 between previous output a nice correction west not a huge one more of a surface high to NE.

[mulzy]

Front on Tuesday dies a death as it traverses the country - not much for the south eastern quarter of the country on this run.

...But cold is well and truly bedded in.

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

6 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Putting aside the excitement. I am finding the chart below to be so incredibly unusual. I cannot recall anything in the past when we have such a pool of cold air to our E & W.

This is what I was rambling on about last night.  I wonder whether it will become the new norm or whether it is just a blip?

[Weathizard]

2 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

This is what I was rambling on about last night.  I wonder whether it will become the new norm or whether it is just a blip?

I doubt it would ever become the norm, with the Atlantic to our west uppers are nearly always modified heavily before they get to us, the setup we are seeing progged right now is highly unusual and the depth of cold coming out of that area is immense, probably helps with the modification.

 

Big snow events pretty much always come from Atlantic sources so although fraught with danger more Atlantic influence could be profitable for some.

[Chris101]

9 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Putting aside the excitement. I am finding the chart below to be so incredibly unusual. I cannot recall anything in the past when we have such a pool of cold air to our E & W.

I've looked at charts now for a good 15 years and researched a number of good cold spells and its certainly a new one for me.

Usually we may go into a cold spell with some ideas of outcomes in our minds looking at flows, depths etc, but with this one i see new territory.

[weirpig]

10 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Front on Tuesday dies a death as it traverses the country - not much for the south eastern quarter of the country on this run.

...But cold is well and truly bedded in.

Thats a good point.  But to be honest im not sure of GFS take on this.  I expect it is under estimating the block to the East  i expect the  Band not even to make it across Wales before being pushed back.   We shall see

[frosty ground]

More of a mild sector makes it across the UK by Thursday next week, i think we can thank the Azores high for that.

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

5 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I doubt it would ever become the norm, with the Atlantic to our west uppers are nearly always modified heavily before they get to us, the setup we are seeing progged right now is highly unusual and the depth of cold coming out of that area is immense, probably helps with the modification.

 

Big snow events pretty much always come from Atlantic sources so although fraught with danger more Atlantic influence could be profitable for some.

I do agree although I can't help thinking there might be something else at play here?  Arctic ice melt making sea temperatures colder and therefore less modification?

Anyway that is for another thread.  The good news is it is turning cold in the near future and based on most of the models it is going to stay that way for the foreseeable.  

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Very snowy gfs 06z couple of snow events in there 

[Man With Beard]

Arrival of very cold air now between T72 and T96. Now getting into the period where a major backtrack on the cold actually reaching us is unlikely - probably by 18Z run tonight.

Once the cold air is in, anything that hits from the west likely to turn to snow.

[John Michael How]

20 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I doubt it would ever become the norm, with the Atlantic to our west uppers are nearly always modified heavily before they get to us, the setup we are seeing progged right now is highly unusual and the depth of cold coming out of that area is immense, probably helps with the modification.

 

Big snow events pretty much always come from Atlantic sources so although fraught with danger more Atlantic influence could be profitable for some.

The only big snow events in the SE in the last few years 2010 2009 etc have all come from the East/ENE

[bluearmy]

I’m with dave on this - can’t recall a set up where we were approached from both directions by such low uppers 

the -10c isotherm probability from the eps T132 illustrates nicely 

 

Edited February 1, 2018 by bluearmy

[snowfish1]

40 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Putting aside the excitement. I am finding the chart below to be so incredibly unusual. I cannot recall anything in the past when we have such a pool of cold air to our E & W.

Teits

i have only studied the charts for a few years and I have NEVER seen such axles r battleground. Or East vs west cold air on both sides !!