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Model output discussion - mid January

Paul

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3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Yup it is the coldest Op run yet with Easterly flow at 144

ECH1-144.GIF?01-12ECH0-144.GIF?01-12

Going to be some excited boys and girls this morning.

I'm a very excited Boy this morning Mucka shall I go find my new toboggan ?

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3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Yup it is the coldest Op run yet with Easterly flow at 144

ECH1-144.GIF?01-12ECH0-144.GIF?01-12

Going to be some excited boys and girls this morning.

Indeed, very nice. T144 tho, so a few nervous times ahead but looking good.

IMG_0446.PNG

IMG_0447.PNG

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EC 144

Great chart, coldest uppers of the winter from a very cold east.

IMG_3280.thumb.PNG.baceab45988cc1d759d42904cbd79a14.PNG

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Your not wrong Chris -12 850hpa in the east at 144hrs on the ECM. Easterly back at 144hrs,  quite similar to last night's 18z GFS

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5 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Never bank on an easterly (even with seemingly cross model agreement) until it's within 48-72 hrs out... That's the golden rule. We've been here umpteen times before over the years.

On a related note, that 18z GFS is a tad yummy.

After seeing your I was expecting the worst then I had look at charts looking good to me cold with snow chances in places .  And also ecm looking colder with increasing chance snow..

Edited by abbie123

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2 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

I'm a very excited Boy this morning Mucka shall I go find my new toboggan ?

If ECM is right you had better hurry and find it before it gets buried. :D:cold:

ECM0-168.GIF?01-12

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So the GFS pushes the cold from west further east than last night and the ECM does the opposite, pushes the cold air further west. 

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Well well well. As I've said before, it's often in the mid timeframes that these little corkers start to appear. 

What a set of runs I've been enlightened with after having a busy week and not much time to look at the models. 

Going by the latest ECM, it may be time to unpack the skis!! GFS still has us in a snowfest in the short to mid term too, then it'll be about how this spell continues. 

 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91

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Classic beast from the east, this run is probably the coldest we have seen for years within the 96-168 period.

IMG_3281.thumb.PNG.68c40d363b26ea73b21fe888e343d4a7.PNG

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Ecm looks a bit of a belter hin the reliable with fronts running into frigid air and plenty of sub minus 10 uppers about.

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard

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4 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Classic beast from the east, this run is probably the coldest we have seen for years within the 96-168 period.

IMG_3281.thumb.PNG.68c40d363b26ea73b21fe888e343d4a7.PNG

Sorry,But that is not a classic beast from the east.If we was 2k miles further north east........your on.

Edited by joggs

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23 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

After seeing your post I was expecting the worst then I had look at charts looking good to me cold with snow chances in places .  And also ecm looking colder with increasing chance snow..

 

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Same theme from the models this morning - wintry with some snow at times.  This could be the real deal folks - strap in and enjoy.

Still think the models are struggling day 7+ - lots will change in the medium range but we have one snow event within 72 hours (Saturday) now!

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It's a trade off between deep cold on the one hand and snow on the other. The GFS/UKMO may look worse for continued cold, but they do get Tuesday's front right across the country, likely to be snow for all except maybe south facing coasts in the SW. ECM is colder for longer but the front for Tuesday doesn't even reach England except in extreme west.

Edited by Man With Beard

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And so the pattern continues... the battle of Britain goes on and on.. deep into Fl territory. West or East... perhaps both. No let up in the models. Winter is knocking hard on all of our doors.  

I havent seen this scenario before in my lifetime.. not to this repetitive state. 

Analysis of the ensembles show this battle really well... west showing the encroachment of the warm sectors with east illustrating the warm sector being consumed by cold weather. 

 

 

 

 

 

t850Western_Isles.png

t850Aberdeenshire.png

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So next week looks like cold from the east vs cold from the west.

Dry for most away from the extreme east and west vs snow potential more widely.

Edited by MattStoke

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Just a question for those more experienced. 

Why are the bbc still going for N.Westerly sourced air nxt week 

And still have temps in the south between 5&7c  

They are not showing any thing like what the posters on this forum have been showing for the last 12 hrs now.

How can there be temps like there forcasting wth minus 10-12c uppers from a frigid east. ??

Im assuming they have there own mods and are completly disagreeing wth what what the majority of us in here are hoping for & seeing ??

 

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1 minute ago, craigore said:

Just a question for those more experienced. 

Why are the bbc still going for N.Westerly sourced air nxt week 

And still have temps in the south between 5&7c  

They are not showing any thing like what the posters on this forum have been showing for the last 12 hrs now.

How can there be temps like there forcasting wth minus 10-12c uppers from a frigid east. ??

Im assuming they have there own mods and are completly disagreeing wth what what the majority of us in here are hoping for & seeing ??

 

I find Meto and BBC are very slow to lower temps in response to colder periods of weather forecast. Give it till Sunday and then you will see it all change for next week. The clue with the meto is when the forecast turns cloudy and dry all day long!

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