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Model output discussion - mid January

Paul

By Paul
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snowbunting Enthusiast

snowbunting

Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Wild!
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
Posted

Im looking at the ensembles... pretty much in agreement to 180hrs plus. The 850s are up then down then up then dowm then up then down... lol

Fascinating model watching as the Uk becomes the battle ground for some very cold weather. 

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weirpig Maestro

weirpig

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Posted
7 minutes ago, Sawel said:

If 18z GFS comes to fruition then scenes like this will be common in 7-10 days time...

North of the M4

 

antarctic_megafauna_by_sameerprehistorica-davqix4.jpg

cats-brown-snow-animals-cat-wallpaper-iphone-6-plus-1600x1080.jpg

What ! The 18z shows a snowfest north of the m4. Not  a vicious primitive marandering herbivore stalking an ice ridden plain. Hang on. We'res Lilly Allen live 

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted

The ens are very good broadly good agreement with the OP that’s reassuring to around T180 - not only is something afoot I think the wheels are now in motion. Hold tight! 

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Jason M Experienced

Jason M

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Posted
1 minute ago, RAIN RAIN RAIN said:

But for the m4 southwards... 

2FD20B2F00000578-3385901-image-a-7_14520

IF this verifies I don't think the M4 will be getting many mentions tbh. There would be nothing marginal about this. As Steve has said, Ice days would be a dead cert given its still only early Feb.

Very positive tonight but I think personally I'll wait until we see if this is backed up in the morning! Its rare to see a complete fail at this range, but not unheard of!

 

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

It makes a change to see these last minute upgrades !

Whats good to see is further westwards corrections and a bit more amplitude upstream which sharpens up the troughing.

In terms of the trigger shortwave this is now due within T 96 hrs and even by the UKs recent bad luck this should verify.

After that the actual high set up and depth of cold will probably take a few more runs to pin down.

Its been a real roller coaster for coldies the last week.  But let’s hope this time all the drama and model chopping and changing will be worth it. :cold-emoji:

 

Edited by nick sussex
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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted (edited)

Coldest set of EC T2m ensembles for London I’ve seen yet this winter

B137F0CA-71A1-49CB-8A59-165E1956265F.thumb.png.da19975e758b4d419598b6d1e61a18d4.png

Edited by Nick F
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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

The control run is out to 180 and is very similar, just variations on a theme really and slightly lower uppers (-10's instead of -12's), so nothing really to be worried about there.  Mean uppers at 144 showing -8's across pretty much the whole of the UK.  This is pretty remarkable and not often seen.  

gensnh-21-0-144.png

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted
6 minutes ago, weirpig said:

What ! The 18z shows a snowfest north of the m4. Not  a vicious primitive marandering herbivore stalking an ice ridden plain. Hang on. We'res Lilly Allen live 

Love it..?

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Nick F said:

Coldest set of EC T2m ensembles for London I’ve seen yet this winter

9A621663-2F88-4B35-BD54-21C399519F47.thumb.gif.48f06e53f3dab5f54e1320a56ee514bd.gif

Posted em, earlier..quite crazy...

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted
15 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

This bodes very well indeed in terms of how our ens graph may look!

gens_panel_ago4.png 

Wow don't think I have ever seen the ens look so in sink not much difference between each stamp at all.

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Froze were the Days Accomplished

Froze were the Days

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
Posted

Just seen the Beeb forecast for the weekend and typically underwhelming...'mainly cold rain' and a 'raw wind setting in on Sunday' - in fact such a raw wind temps will be down to 5-7c in the south. :nonono:

Fantastic pub run but as I mentioned 18z always likes to go one way or the other.

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Jemma Croton Aficionado

Jemma Croton

Posted
  • Location: Swindon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Always Snow.
  • Location: Swindon
Posted
1 hour ago, supernova said:

Everyone who earlier predicted that winter was over has been proven absolutely spot on.

Over the East Coast at 96hrs and the rest of the country soon thereafter. Cheers! :rofl:

102-779UK.GIF

96-779UK.GIF

200-2.gif

?? Read this with Offspring - Kids Aren’t Alright playing and I swear to god he’d dancing perfectly in time with the music. I’m dead ??

The 18Z is absolutely blinding. I hope this keeps going. Cannot wait to see Walsal eat humble pie in the AM!! ?

I make that now a solid 7 consecutive runs with upgrades. I’ve not seen that happen for some time. Next weeks looks set to be pretty bloody spectacular. Just in time for half term too!! 

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

Short ens Tightly bunched until towards the end

ED2CA4B7-91F1-440F-A554-A841BEBB39DC.thumb.gif.276e7b566e656db07e7e6ea96b7d0241.gif

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted
Just now, tight isobar said:

Posted em, earlier..quite crazy...

Have posted the 12z up rather than 00z now, tablet or weathercast site doing strange things with saving pictures.

 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)

FI I know. But, hey - lying snow, no wind, freezing fog, minus double-digit minima. What could possibly go wrong!:santa-emoji:

Netweather GFS Image

Sidney The Eagle?

Image result for skiing squirrel

Edited by Ed Stone
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John Michael How Explorer

John Michael How

Posted
  • Location: Gravesend (by the thames) and work Borough Green deliveries on job around the South east
  • Weather Preferences: Snow November to March. Heat and sun late April to early October
  • Location: Gravesend (by the thames) and work Borough Green deliveries on job around the South east
Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The main player is in fact our ridge that developes in to Scandi/west Russia deflecting lows on a NW to SE tragectory.

tempresult_hna3.gif

Is that the same player that earns £500000 a week and got a good kicking at Wembley tonight ? you should def stick to model forecasting rather than the footy pal. Good old Spurs⚽️⚽️

Edited by John Michael How
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

Just when you thought things couldn't get any better, the GEFS show a mean Easterly with blocking at 300 hours - of 20 member suite!!

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

Bang tidy 

A9EE4DBA-84AA-4C50-8E2B-B8071B085BF3.thumb.gif.e36d5dbe87d4b6f0d79019a76043ac81.gif

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

A good number of Easterlies setting up around mid month within GFS ensembles

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

gensnh-21-1-300_hlt5.png

That’s incredible for a mean 300hr chart

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted
2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Short ens Tightly bunched until towards the end

ED2CA4B7-91F1-440F-A554-A841BEBB39DC.thumb.gif.276e7b566e656db07e7e6ea96b7d0241.gif

Yes, just saw that.  Not unexpectedly the GFS run was a cold outlier at the end, but the mean 850's drop below -5 from next Monday until Friday.  Very nice indeed.

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