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Model output discussion - mid January


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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

So let’s talk parameters

Theta E 6c. Check

735A5FD1-F912-411E-B016-E298A79617B5.thumb.png.8ff007472fca98c9f835176d07f6764a.png

 

850 Thicknesses - 1260-70 incoming check

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850 Temps -12 / -13c   check

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Convective snow Window from 96 to 126 from the east = 30 hours.... 

ideal location - Suffolk / Mid Kent / East Kent - Then eyes to the NW..

s

Are we sure we will be looking to the NW or will we stil be looking East?!!!

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In days of old, When nights were cold, And models weren't invented, We might have hoped, we might have prayed, But we didn't drive ourselves demented.   The MJO the QBO,

netweather members celebrate when the long-awaited easterly finally arrives...

00z EC showing interesting battleground snow event for the north and west next Tuesday, as Atlantic frontal system moves in from the west and bumps into the cold air If only my wife could u

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2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Because it's the 18z...always OTT or underwhelming.

Dont be too sure on that stat!...

18z performed ok last 12 months..

I'll try post compare suites asap...

Not far lagging behind ozz ...i think..on a suite 2 suite basis...

Edited by tight isobar
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h850t850eu.png h850t850eu.png

Wait, we finally actually have a proper pub run?

First the LP drops down much cleaner akin to the ECM 12z, and then we see a good deal more amplification upstream which increases the odds of the Azores High becoming a helping hand rather than a hindrance.

hgt300.pnghgt300.png

Okay so maybe there is a slight jittery nature to my typing now...

h850t850eu.png

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2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

who lives in NE Scotland to SW england:rofl:

gfs-1-138.png?18

still cold though:)

and there is no way out of this cold spell if it goes to plan.

 

Thats where the front has stalled and dumping all the snow 

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3 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Because it's the 18z...always OTT or underwhelming.

Well according to a NOAA scientist that’s not true each run should be treated equally. Trend setter. :laugh:

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It’s been a long time so it’s not surprising that some may have forgotten just how stubborn scandi heights can be once established! It should come as no surprise if it decides to stick around!

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The upgrades continue to appear and the 7th onwards is now zoning in. Tomorrow's runs could be very special and with stratstratospheric feedbacks and blocking expected to retrogress to Greenland in MJO phase 8 this could be very very very special! 

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2 hours ago, snowray said:

Reminds me of some of the snow events from the early 90's, on one occasion I remember well it snowed as far east as Heathrow, parts of the west were snowed in.:)

Here we go, this is exactly what I had in mind. Front stalls in the west and gets pushed back by the cold in the east, classic. Some place could get 24 hours of snow, Wales, SW, NW would do best, and of course Scotland. The snow could extend into the Midlands as well. :)

SE will have to content themselves with snow showers.

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6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Are we sure we will be looking to the NW or will we stil be looking East?!!!

gfsnh-0-144_yss8.png

Remember the 7th/8th/9th for easterly winds and expected trough disruption we spoke about mate two days ago ;'-)

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I've not posted for a while but tonights update has me crawling out of the wood work (so given how this winter has been so far, expect downgrades all the way from here because that seems to be the theme as soon as I become interested)

Great 18z run. Liam Dutton said on Twitter earlier though that the 18z and 06z generally shouldn't be paid too much attention to due to less starting data, so looks like that's not just a myth amongst these forums.

Having said that - If the 18z is right, we'll probably be seeing Satellite pictures of the entire UK covered with snow.

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gfsnh-0-174.png?18

 

If we can get high pressure better placed near Scandi as here then the ridging in the Atlantic should be much better due to the trough being held up - should be a classic.

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3 minutes ago, Danny* said:

I've not posted for a while but tonights update has me crawling out of the wood work (so given how this winter has been so far, expect downgrades all the way from here because that seems to be the theme as soon as I become interested)

Great 18z run. Liam Dutton said on Twitter earlier though that the 18z and 06z generally shouldn't be paid too much attention to due to less starting data, so looks like that's not just a myth amongst these forums.

Having said that - If the 18z is right, we'll probably be seeing Satellite pictures of the entire UK covered with snow.

In the nicest possible way then, would you mind deleting above post and leaving immediately. You may return once cold uppers are established :rofl:

mild sector almost non existent as precip marches towards us from the NW

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Edited by karlos1983
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Out to 186 ish & prepare for the Atlantic to finally make an appearance 

sadly it’s only sliding south from the west so snow for any zone where there’s PPN- the rest frozen solid by then if the 18z lands

8A8724BE-C0D6-4339-8891-60B09275C72A.thumb.png.ceddc71c535fa408f68e52b769e5f258.png

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