Model output discussion - mid January

[Had Worse]

22 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

RIP- HARRY-GEORGE-JOSH..

HOW TRAGIC!?..

MY DAUGHTERS PALS??

???

Not model related I know, but to clear the confusion up.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-42843841

[Singularity]

Forgot about the UKMO 12z for a bit there .

You can just about make out the breakaway low sliding across the far NE of Scotland on the +168 and that follows a better trough shape than the 12z ECM for the disruption and sliding sequence. So if one allows for ECM being a bit too trigger-happy with that, then the UKMO can be seen as a more reliable suggestion that it can be done.

Now, does anyone have any anti-Nina solution and a firefighting aeroplane that can be sent on an urgent mission to the tropical Pacific? 

[Ice Day]

29 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

RIP- HARRY-GEORGE-JOSH..

HOW TRAGIC!?..

MY DAUGHTERS PALS??

???

Really sorry to hear that mate, absolutely heartbreaking for everyone affected.  Puts our chase for cold into some sharp perspective!

Onto the models, it's been a very strange day with very little cheer for the cold persuasion, then the ECM came along.  A cracking run but, as has already been mentioned, the evolution between 168 and 192 seems suspect but as Steve M explained earlier, it is plausible.  Is this another case of the GFS latching onto a solution first before dropping it, then picking it back up a few days later when the other models have sniffed the same outcome?  Let's hope so, it's happened before.  The uppers at 216 are cracking for most of the UK with -8 to -10 uppers widely

Then at 240 we have -12's approaching the east coast. 

Not taking this too seriously at the moment but certainly nice to see given the poor earlier output.

Edited January 27, 2018 by Ice Day

[bobbydog]

31 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

RIP- HARRY-GEORGE-JOSH..

HOW TRAGIC!?..

MY DAUGHTERS PALS??

???

sad mate. tragedy can get too close to home sometimes. 

[SMU]

8 minutes ago, Singularity said:

 

Forgot about the UKMO 12z for a bit there .

You can just about make out the breakaway low sliding across the far NE of Scotland on the +168 and that follows a better trough shape than the 12z ECM for the disruption and sliding sequence. So if one allows for ECM being a bit too trigger-happy with that, then the UKMO can be seen as a more reliable suggestion that it can be done.

Now, does anyone have any anti-Nina solution and a firefighting aeroplane that can be sent on an urgent mission to the tropical Pacific? 

I would disagree with it being better than ECM as ECM closes the energy off just SE of the UK where as UKMO is to flat...

ECM mean at day 10 dropped to 2c max which is the lowest for a while - control looks to be similar...

[bobbydog]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

I would disagree with it being better than ECM as ECM closes the energy off just SE of the UK where as UKMO is to flat...

ECM mean at day 10 dropped to 2c max which is the lowest for a while - control looks to be similar...

the 00z ECM was a mild outlier by quite a wide margin compared to its ensembles, so it wouldn't be surprising to see some decent op solutions over the next few runs (not looked at the 12z ens yet)

[SMU]

3 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

the 00z ECM was a mild outlier by quite a wide margin compared to its ensembles, so it wouldn't be surprising to see some decent op solutions over the next few runs (not looked at the 12z ens yet)

Just going through the EPS now - there will be a lot of clusters tonight !

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Just going through the EPS now - there will be a lot of clusters tonight !

Where you getting them from please? - the site I use are slow as ****, only up to Tuesday so far.

[SMU]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Where you getting them from please? - the site I use are slow as ****, only up to Tuesday so far.

Weather Us one

member 31 probably has the coldest 850s for the UK @-14 although there are a few -16s holding over near continent-

Ice day!!

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

Weather Us one

member 31 probably has the coldest 850s for the UK @-14 although there are a few -16s holding over near continent-

Ice day!!

Thanks - using the same site but they wont update for me!

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Weather Us one

member 31 probably has the coldest 850s for the UK @-14 although there are a few -16s holding over near continent-

Ice day!!

That's the 0z run.

[SMU]

Ah yeah- stupid me !!

F5. !!!

[feb1991blizzard]

At 360, theres a handful of sub -10c 850s.

[feb1991blizzard]

Here are the NOGAPS ensembles for the SE.

[Johnp]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here are the NOGAPS ensembles for the SE.

Isn't using Nogaps ensembles a bit like using a chocolate saucepan - in the Sahara desert?

[feb1991blizzard]

Looks pretty reflective of most other suites if you ask me. while we are at it, here are the GEM ens for the same Location

[Nick F]

This thread has gone from disillusionment over the outlook this morning to a sense of mild optimism now the ECM has pulled off, out of the blue, a Scandi high that does actually advect cold upper our way. I suspect there will be more ups and downs on the way until the models grapple what do with changes over the Pacific as we head into early Feb. The joys of taking each run literally!

Models in my experience often won't lock into a blocky pattern until its within 7 days or so..... so I see no harm at looking at a combination of ensemble guidance, status and direction of travel of the atmospheric drivers and oscillations (MJO, AAM/GWO, etc), and overall northern hemisphere setup and not hug each GFS or EC run change as if it were a new direction of travel we must believe in. 

Now I don't want to start WW3 in here with the non-believers again, let's expect many will have different ways of looking at what may happen beyond the reliable timeframe of the models, no one can claim success all the time in the weather game if the best pro Mets, but the GLAAM heading positive and MJO heading through phase 7 towards 8 argues at decent amplitude for a pattern change for the better for us coldies as we head through February based on analog evidence of previous events.

 

Edited January 27, 2018 by Nick F

[Bottled Snow]

ECM has put the cat amongst the pigeons tonight......only one run but actually similar to a lot of the more decent GEFS members over last few days, which ironically have reduced in number today. However as another poster has stated sometimes GFS picks up a signal then drops it before reverting again as other models come on board. The clock is ticking so hopefully ECM is picking up the right signal tonight. If we could get to a similar place as ECM suggests tonight,then with MJO hopefully also playing ball a little further down the line , Feb could offer the most interesting cold prospects since March 2013 (or dare I say it) even since December 2010.

I see similarities with this winter and that of 2004/2005 which brought some cold episodes in December and January from the west before  February finally brought (at least synoptically speaking) a stunning easterly. Hopefully a more potent one in the offing this year if we manage to hit the jackpot.

 

Out of interest does anyone know if Glosea is still going for easterlies into Feb?

 

BS

Edited January 27, 2018 by Bottled Snow

[Duane S.]

Lots of moans and groans about the GEFS downgrading today.

Let’s just put this into perspective. The latest GEFS, the 12z, for one of the warmest winter areas in the UK...

Hardly awful.

 

 

[markw2680]

6 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Lots of moans and groans about the GEFS downgrading today.

Let’s just put this into perspective. The latest GEFS, the 12z, for one of the warmest winter areas in the UK...

Hardly awful.

 

 

I’d say that’s actually pretty impressive imo, awful lot of chopping and changing to come I suspect but at least we have something to chase although I do sound a bit sad saying that

[SMU]

GFS over Scandi not quite the same but the 180 jet is very similar

[Ice Day]

Now then, this is a move towards the ECM at 192

GFS  ECM 

[snowray]

18z looking like it wants to build pressure again around Iceland.

[Allseasons-Si]

The gfs  and ecm at 192,very similar!

the 18z is miles better than the 12z suit.

there is some consistancy at last

-8's incoming in from the east/northeast at 210

+a high of 1030 developing over Scandi

let the battle comense

Edited January 27, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[feb1991blizzard]

Not sure this will be an absolute belter but I'm very happy with it, its on a par with ECM and it arrests the slide of downgrades on GFS recent op / ens runs, more important though I would like to se a good GEFS suite, ive already been through the D15 eps runs, not sure how the graph will turn out overall but should be more frigid runs, as there is some -11 and -12c 's over London at the time so should mean some max's below freezing although not sure whether the models take into account the urban warming effect as it could be why the London max temps never seem to correlate well with the uppers.