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Model output discussion - mid January

Paul

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I would like/hope that the two knowledgeable posters above can continue with a debate about their differing opinions, leaving out having ago because a lot of learning could be had by all. Debate nicely.:D

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Definite downgrade on the 2 GEFS suites since 18z and there is no point dressing it up any other way, I think we need to accept that earlier suites were too early with any potent Easterly and just keep fingers crossed on the D13-16 parts of the suites for the next couple of days.

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4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

I would like/hope that the two knowledgeable posters above can continue with a debate about their differing opinions, leaving out having ago because a lot of learning could be had by all. Debate nicely.:D

YES!! It's absolutely fantastic when you get two experienced people putting across their theories and takes on what might happen - but it is made so so so much harder if snipes and negative angles begin to influence the otherwise terrific takes on things 

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Definite downgrade on the 2 GEFS suites since 18z and there is no point dressing it up any other way, I think we need to accept that earlier suites were too early with any potent Easterly and just keep fingers crossed on the D13-16 parts of the suites for the next couple of days.

18z suites have been overly enthusiastic recently. 

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Could someone please explain what drivers are behind the chunk of vortex that has sat north west of the UK since time and memorial is this hindering a cold outbreak for us sorry if this appears incredibly naive but I have to learn 

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4 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

18z suites have been overly enthusiastic recently. 

Yes, lets hope the 0z and 6z suites have been under enthusiastic very recently!

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7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Definite downgrade on the 2 GEFS suites since 18z and there is no point dressing it up any other way, I think we need to accept that earlier suites were too early with any potent Easterly and just keep fingers crossed on the D13-16 parts of the suites for the next couple of days.

Really ens still looks pretty decent to me? In fact that cold snap as February draws in has got some more longevity it seems this morning perhaps some folk might get more than they bargained for.

6FE289CB-29B7-411E-844A-81772F8C8303.thumb.gif.5a2440e625dfde8e632e4e7c531fa4a7.gif

ECM op a stark outlier in FI so that’s good news most are interested in cold conditions.

36DB16E0-11AE-416B-B6D4-0C781E8C5030.thumb.png.8a81573693e5d3793399bcde6786c93a.png

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1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Really ens still looks pretty decent to me? In fact that cold snap as February draws in has got some more longevity it seems this morning perhaps some folk might get more than they bargained for.

6FE289CB-29B7-411E-844A-81772F8C8303.thumb.gif.5a2440e625dfde8e632e4e7c531fa4a7.gif

ECM op a stark outlier in FI so that’s good news most are interested in cold conditions.

36DB16E0-11AE-416B-B6D4-0C781E8C5030.thumb.png.8a81573693e5d3793399bcde6786c93a.png

Its the trend though Daniel, a lot of those stonkers are gone now we are getting into the semi-reliable.

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, lets hope the 0z and 6z suites have been under enthusiastic very recently!

Probably something going on there, bias and such.

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1 minute ago, snowfish1 said:

YES!! It's absolutely fantastic when you get two experienced people putting across their theories and takes on what might happen - but it is made so so so much harder if snipes and negative angles begin to influence the otherwise terrific takes on things 

Indeed! Well put sir. The problem is everyone has their own weather "god". It could be the PV, northern jet arm, AH, phasing systems, MJO, AO, Teleconnections etc. Either way, as a community, if we were all to work together the discussions and leaning (and probably resultant forecasts) from this site would be much enhanced. The use of provocative language (such as tepid, toothless, blink and you'll miss it etc) is also pretty tiresome as is the relentless imbyism. Are we not,  as scientists, supposed to be objective, not subjective?

 Nick

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9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its the trend though Daniel, a lot of those stonkers are gone now we are getting into the semi-reliable.

You said the same a few days ago however, and then see what afterwards was being produced. 

GFS op a mild outlier from 2nd and ECM op from 4th while the output may not look as good as this morning I do not think the wider picture has changed at all.

Edited by Daniel*
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Thank you for all the respectful yet differing viewpoints from Nick F, Steve M, Tamara. Makes for fascinating reading and the difficulties of long range forecasting. I wonder if the Sst anomalies over in the Nw Atlantic are adding to the lows sweeping out of the Canadian side?:cc_confused:

3C1D0B8A-C16D-42A4-9C1D-1EE50F086B74.jpeg

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Just now, Daniel* said:

You said the same a few days ago however, and then see what afterwards was being produced. 

GFS op a mild outlier from 2nd and ECM op from 4th while the output may not look as good as this morning I do not think the wider picture has not changed at all.

You could argue that both ways, iwould say that the timeframe has if you look at raw data, it keeps getting put back, however, that really is the timeframe (10-15 feb) we should have been looking at from the outset anyway wrt lagged responses from MJO etc, but the fact that we had half a GEFS suite suggesting potent cold before hand probably fooled us into thinking it may be quicker.

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You could argue that both ways, iwould say that the timeframe has if you look at raw data, it keeps getting put back, however, that really is the timeframe (10-15 feb) we should have been looking at from the outset anyway wrt lagged responses from MJO etc, but the fact that we had half a GEFS suite suggesting potent cold before hand probably fooled us into thinking it may be quicker.

Bit of a typo there, but there is no trend apparent with GEFS > erraticness there’s been corkers interspersed by less good suites I think this is fairly normal to see. It keeps be, putting back? Fair point morning suites were not good but both ECM and GFS are an mild outlier in FI - maybe we see different models potential is getting nearer and may to have truly manifest itself in NWP, only GFS goes out to week 2..

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before I joined this great forum btw 10 years ago 

I rarely ever got disappointed as I used watch the BBC models which only went up to 4 days in advance

 

it' simple really dont get excited past t96

infact I not even look past it you should try it 

 

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13 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

before I joined this great forum btw 10 years ago 

I rarely ever got disappointed as I used watch the BBC models which only went up to 4 days in advance

 

it' simple really dont get excited past t96

infact I not even look past it you should try it 

 

That's like telling a teenager to wait for a girl they are sure is going to be the one they want to get married to....l"d rather have the highs and lows of life than a steady plod!

Edited by Timmytour
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15 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

before I joined this great forum btw 10 years ago 

I rarely ever got disappointed as I used watch the BBC models which only went up to 4 days in advance

 

it' simple really dont get excited past t96

infact I not even look past it you should try it 

 

That would be boring this thread would not have no purpose knocker would get more company :p for science to grow you need to push the boundaries progress is being made. I feel some are too critical on the models they do not discriminate against UK cold contrary to some believes, it’s just computer data. I think this excitement you speak of is more of an immediate reaction rather than a sustained sense of excitement, good run(s) does that. I think by now people should know to never expect this or that until you see it for yourself.

Edited by Daniel*
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One wee 'problem', with which I can readily identify, is that newbies can get sucked into believing that the weather and the models are one and the same thing; perhaps us 'old hands' kind of encourage that type of thinking too?

IMO, the models do not, in any way at all, control the weather but the 'weather' in a way controls the models; all models, from the very simplest to the most sophisticated and complex, rely 100% upon constant feeds of down-to-earth data...

It doesn't bother me much that different people see things from different vantage points. IMO, both the holistic approach adopted by the 'Teleconnectionists' is just as valid as that by those who prefer to extrapolate (I'm not totally sure that that's the right word?) 'outwards' from individual model runs, or a phasing shortwaves, or whatever...? I do suspect, however, that one day, both these approaches will be used in tandem with each other, and that some kind of 'synthesis' will be the end game...?

I hope so, in any case.:)

 

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The GFS’ low pressure problem usually reaches its peak around day 9 or 10, which it spends a large number of runs having to unwind. It’s what makes it such a frustrating model to watch for this part of the world and why day 5 or 6 is only edging into reliable. As a rule of thumb, I always look at it and imagine what if the lows it inexorably spins up are weaker and any high pressure block stronger, then you get a better picture of where the UK will probably lie. Often that means the beneficial FI runs downgrade but, this time, it would work the other way.

Edited by ukpaul

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51 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

Could someone please explain what drivers are behind the chunk of vortex that has sat north west of the UK since time and memorial is this hindering a cold outbreak for us sorry if this appears incredibly naive but I have to learn 

Great post and great question . St. John’s island seems to take a constant hammering of cold plunging after cold plunge this and every winter

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36 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

before I joined this great forum btw 10 years ago 

I rarely ever got disappointed as I used watch the BBC models which only went up to 4 days in advance

 

it' simple really dont get excited past t96

infact I not even look past it you should try it 

 

To be honest most of the posts on here center around the unreliable output rather than the sensible output of a few days ahead. The outer realms of model outputs often have the most interesting synoptics regarding winter cold or summer heat and rarely comes to fruition ,and often we are left sitting on the fence with a very watered down version of epic heat or super cold.  I think that this thread is actually quite fun to view the varying degrees of model output because it's a great talking point and even though we all really know that the weird and whacky  output at the ten day range is very unlikely to verify ,there's a little bit in all of us that perhaps the super doupa cold synoptics at day ten and beyond  may just this once verify...:cold::)

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56 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

Could someone please explain what drivers are behind the chunk of vortex that has sat north west of the UK since time and memorial is this hindering a cold outbreak for us sorry if this appears incredibly naive but I have to learn 

As I've said, continuous ridging of heights in the NE Pacific is almost certainly to blame. I would like to see this totally gone next winter and see a different approach from the jet stream across the US, instead of it being supplied with rocket fuel along the eastern seaboard. We need it to dive down SE out of the states instead of parallel along the coast heading NE, not only to have reduced power, but to displace/replace high pressure over the Azores with a deep low. This would then leave room for heights to develop around Greenland and to get the proper omega style high in place up there instead of repeated failed ridging that ends up being a mediocre toppler. 

If you look at the likes of the real true snowfests of 78/79, 62/63, 46/47, the charts for back then clearly showed what I have mentioned above. All of them had absence of the Azores high. 

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