Model output discussion - mid January

[damianslaw]

Models all in agreement for significant ridging of pacific heights north into the Pole with heights building over the Pole - what this does is something we haven't really seen properly so far this season -' development of a dense pool of cold uppers over Scandi' - combined with a return to a more amplified jetstream flow, we have all the foundations for a possible protracted colder period as we move through early Feb -may take a couple of northerly topplers to get there as indicated by the models tonight - so no surprise to see no easterly just yet within the 240hr timeframe - but perhaps only a matter of time.

[feb1991blizzard]

Was hoping for some guidance but forget that on the 18z op with that ridiculously deep low suddenly appearing from nowhere.

[Ice Day]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Was hoping for some guidance but forget that on the 18z op with that ridiculously deep low suddenly appearing from nowhere.

Yes, no consistency vs the 12z but could be some fun and games about to commence.  Not a bad looking chart at 198, brewing up an easterly maybe?

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Yes, no consistency vs the 12z but could be some fun and games about to commence.  Not a bad looking chart at 198, brewing up an easterly maybe?

Oh no - your right there - this could actually trump any op run not just this year but for a few years if you look at the uppers profile to the east, we just need that low to phase correctly with the troughing to the east - the other part is fine - enough WAA into Greenland from that slow moving low over Canada will definitely keep the PV out of harms way.

[Daniel*]

This is important any continental flow will subsequently be that bit colder not seen with prior easterly debacle.

 

[snowray]

Could be a very nice run, HP setting up over Iceland, lovely stuff....here comes our easterly?

Look at all that lovely cold air to our east!

18z the trendsetter again maybe?

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, snowray said:

Could be a very nice run, HP setting up over Iceland, lovely stuff....here comes our easterly?

Look at all that lovely cold air to our east!

18z the trendsetter again maybe?

There is actually a chunk of less cold air getting to our latitude to our east. What gets here first in fi? The beast from the west or the tepid easterly!  Actually, when I made this joke a few weeks ago, the tepid easterly bloody verified!!!!!

[Ice Day]

Describe this chart in one word.  I'll start....'primed'

  

As noted by Feb above, this is a very different looking run from the 12z and will no doubt look different again on the 0z's.  However, we are in that run where all routes seem to lead to cold, but of course this can change but there's an awful lot going for the coldies among us at the moment.

 

[snowray]

Nationwide snow at D10, and this is only the beginning. 

[ICE COLD]

This is gonna be a stonker 

[feb1991blizzard]

-14c to -20c not a million miles away tantalisingly poised for action.

[snowray]

WOW, this could be epic!

 

Lovely charts from the 18z, almost erotic now!

[feb1991blizzard]

Feet of snow piling up in my location at 300.

[andymusic]

FI - GFS 18z - down the pub - SNOWMAGGEDON

[Nick F]

24 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Models all in agreement for significant ridging of pacific heights north into the Pole with heights building over the Pole - what this does is something we haven't really seen properly so far this season -' development of a dense pool of cold uppers over Scandi' - combined with a return to a more amplified jetstream flow, we have all the foundations for a possible protracted colder period as we move through early Feb -may take a couple of northerly topplers to get there as indicated by the models tonight - so no surprise to see no easterly just yet within the 240hr timeframe - but perhaps only a matter of time.

Agree, some significant cold building over Scandi and NW Russia in the reliable timeframe, just need to wait for the flow to buckle and heights to rise in the GIN corridor to unleash that cold towards us.

GFS continues the idea of the flow buckling to allow height rises towards Iceland then subsequently over the GIN corridor during the 1st weekend of February, the persistence of this signal from GFS is encouraging, though obviously we need ECM on board too. 18z certainly offering narnia, but takes a long time to get there sinking that low SE painfully slowly.

 

[Snowmadsam]

1 minute ago, andymusic said:

FI - GFS 18z - down the pub - SNOWMAGGEDON

I think it's been more than down the pub. It's taken some highly illegal substances!!

It's gone on a mad one! That come down is gonna be nasty on the 0z.....

But still very interesting to watch, as many have thought. Feb seems to be the time to shine

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Agree, some significant cold building over Scandi and NW Russia in the reliable timeframe, just need to wait for the flow to buckle and heights to rise in the GIN corridor to unleash that cold towards us.

GFS continues the idea of the flow buckling to allow height rises towards Iceland then subsequently over the GIN corridor during the 1st weekend of February, the persistence of this signal from GFS is encouraging, though obviously we need ECM on board too. 18z certainly offering narnia, but takes a long time to get there sinking that low SE painfully slowly.

 

Problem is though if it sinks faster then it will carry on sinking and no sooner as we've got a potent snowy Easterly in, the wedge of height will collapse on top just as quick, quickly supressing precipitation from the North.

[bobbydog]

26 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Was hoping for some guidance but forget that on the 18z op with that ridiculously deep low suddenly appearing from nowhere.

ahh go on then, we'll take your dodgy deep low....

[Ice Day]

3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Agree, some significant cold building over Scandi and NW Russia in the reliable timeframe, just need to wait for the flow to buckle and heights to rise in the GIN corridor to unleash that cold towards us.

GFS continues the idea of the flow buckling to allow height rises towards Iceland then subsequently over the GIN corridor during the 1st weekend of February, the persistence of this signal from GFS is encouraging, though obviously we need ECM on board too. 18z certainly offering narnia, but takes a long time to get there sinking that low SE painfully slowly.

 

You're right, the low took for ever to sink, but even then this run still gave a cold solution!  Lots to be resolved but we're entering the best set up for extended cold probably since 2010, but of course being the UK we could end up with another disappointment, only time will tell. 

I hope the mods have stocked up on Pro Plus as they could be doing some long hours over the next few days"

[karlos1983]

There it is again !!

[Nick F]

22 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

You're right, the low took for ever to sink, but even then this run still gave a cold solution!  Lots to be resolved but we're entering the best set up for extended cold probably since 2010, but of course being the UK we could end up with another disappointment, only time will tell. 

I hope the mods have stocked up on Pro Plus as they could be doing some long hours over the next few days"

Pleasantly surprised that the GFS is showing the blocking develop so soon to the north, given the forecast MJO doesn’t get into phase seven until first few days of February, taking into account the lag of 5-10 days. So, could be the effects of the –EPO ridge building into the arctic before the upper flow response to the MJO moving into western Pac that’s causing the flow to buckle, so when the MJO does impact the upper flow, we could be locking into a protracted cold pattern through February.

What is encouraging this winter is that although last winter saw a weak La Nina too – with –EPO ridging, this winter the 500mb patterns have featured a lot more troughing over mainland Europe, whereas last winter featured a lot of ridging – which suggests La Nina is not the only driver of the patterns, but the state of the Polar Vortex and also effects of the eQBO are shaping up a different winter to last, despite La Nina base state.

[Daniel*]

12 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

There it is again !!

Looks like a big displacement to me keeping vortex away from its usual home. GFS 18Z is quite exceptional for SE England snow would really pile up something is definitely afoot. 

[Man With Beard]

EC Clusters keep up the theme of this morning and step up the NE block cluster a notch more

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Control says yes, yes, yes yes Yes Oh GOD YES! 

 

Edited January 26, 2018 by RAIN RAIN RAIN

[feb1991blizzard]

Number 18 on the GEFS for me please.