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Model output discussion - mid January

Paul

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Nothing on the latest MetO forecast but still looks like there is the possibility of snowfall across NW England and some central parts tomorrow evening/night.

Could be marginal and not sure how heavy any ppn will be but shows up well on JMA.

J48-21.GIF?18-18J48-7.GIF?18-18J48-594.GIF?18-18

UKMO 144 looks pretty decent if you want to chase an Easterly down the line. (and who doesn't?)

UN144-21.GIF?18-05

As usual GFS is faster and flatter

gfsnh-0-144.png

So worth considering that GFS at day 9/10 would obviously have any blocking further South and East than UKMO 

gfsnh-0-240.png

Things that make you go "ummm"

 

 

Edited by Mucka
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2 hours ago, jvenge said:

Did someone order double digit south westerlies?

gfs-9-144.png

gfs-0-144.png

Nope.

Request they be returned to sender please.

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So much off topic stuff in here at the moment, please take a minute to read our posting guide, and make sure you're posting into the relevant thread:

 

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Oh well. If it can't be cold, it might as well be really mild:

UW144-21.GIF?18-06UW144-7.GIF?18-06

Probably cooler for a while after as colder air digs in behind, before turning milder again. Not much else to add really. Meh.

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UKMO extended generally remaining milder by mid next week we could be seeing temps into double figures

ukm2.2018012500_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.79ab18e79088dfaf163c8817fe9c005a.png

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Looking further ahead gfs been  consistent  building pressure to the east north east there could be  chance colder spell from east later January   early February folks can shoot me down its my take on the output...:cold:

IMG_0434.PNG

Edited by abbie123
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7 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Looking further ahead gfs been  consistent  building pressure to the east north east there could be  chance colder spell from east later January   early February folks can shoot me down its my take on the output...:cold:

IMG_0434.PNG

It's a possibility for sure - think we need to focus on the first two weeks of Feb for this.

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Weird, could have sworn this was the model output discussion, rather than the general winter discussion. Can we keep it to the actual model output in here please..

Winter thread is here - I'll move the posts in question over to it, but for this whole topic thing to work,it does require everyone plays a part, so please think before posting!

 

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GFS throws up a little interest but it's covered in mucus so I'd rather avoid it. ECM shows the return of a Barlett high which could possibly go down as one of the worst charts I have seen this season. 

Awaiting @Man With Beard clusters to see how much more were straying from the light.

 

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From an operational-point of view looks as though things may begin to revert-again- perhaps...

Azores warmth getting flatter and squeezed out....

And troughing better aligned!!..

Lets see if a new evolution maybe in the offing???

gfsnh-0-144.png

Edited by tight isobar

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19 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

GFS throws up a little interest but it's covered in mucus so I'd rather avoid it. ECM shows the return of a Barlett high which could possibly go down as one of the worst charts I have seen this season. 

Awaiting @Man With Beard clusters to see how much more were straying from the light.

 

Studying individual members - no sign of NE heights by 28 Jan, but lots of blocks centred directly to our east and stretching to Russia. They would provide cold/dry continental air over the UK esp. the south, but a slight topple would allow a mild SWly and at this stage you wouldn't want to pin your hopes on either solution. 

In reality, the Bartlett mean is a blend of these eastern blocks and other runs which have low pressure much closer to the UK.

Beyond 29 Jan, too much scatter to make a reasoned comment.

 

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hgt300.png hgt300.png

A little adjustment toward UKMO 00z. Need a good deal more in the same direction for the jet to track W of N up the W flank of the blocking high while the trough digs into Europe.

AAM projections from GEFS are almost into phase 4 GWO now but still not quite doing the business. ECM/EPS unknown as such, but the way the output for our part of the world is behaving, they seem to be applying even more of a Nina suppression than GEFS/GFS at the moment.

Still that chance that the models are making a mess of things for next week but increasingly we do, after all, end up looking right at the end of the month for changes. I could just about live with that but it'll take a proper cold blast to produce satisfactory results down this way.

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I reckon this 240 hours chart from ECM will be along the right lines in terms of the broad pattern. Assuming the MJO forecasts are to be believed we'd be somewhere around phase 6 towards the end of the month - which would favour high pressure developing around the UK - so expect the high to our South to edge northwards after this 240 hour chart.

If we then progress into Phase 7/8 - which is quite possible/likely (we did do during previous cycles this winter/last autumn - http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/) - then there's every chance that this will develop into some kind of Scandi block which then retrogresses - I'm thinking along a similar time frame to Feb 1991 - whether it packs any punch remains to be seen, but this winter may have a final kick to it.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foroper.shtml

ECH1-240.GIF?18-12

Basically we can forget about January (although it's been decent for some), but February really does like quite promising for now.

 

Edited by beng
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26 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Studying individual members - no sign of NE heights by 28 Jan, but lots of blocks centred directly to our east and stretching to Russia. They would provide cold/dry continental air over the UK esp. the south, but a slight topple would allow a mild SWly and at this stage you wouldn't want to pin your hopes on either solution. 

In reality, the Bartlett mean is a blend of these eastern blocks and other runs which have low pressure much closer to the UK.

Beyond 29 Jan, too much scatter to make a reasoned comment.

 

EC clusters pretty much confirm this. Mid-latitude block over Europe is the best option for cold (pos. UK block later), otherwise the Atlantic is on top

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018011800_240.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018011800_288.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018011800_360.

Must emphasise though, this is just one run. All the previous 6 runs had a Scandi based block, so too soon to say if that's been scrubbed out for good.

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graphe3_1000_241_25___.gif

A distinct split in the Ensembles around the 28th 

These look like sets of ensembles from December and earlier this month, a 5 day mild spell and then a dip to below average. If the pattern repeats we should start to see the jet take more of a NW/SE trajectory allowing more PM air over the UK. 

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Much better charts from the GFS 6z for southern areas as we can look forward to having more influence of higher pressure which takes potential secondary lows and storms across the north. So finally a pattern change after 4 rounds of severe gales in just 2 weeks in the S & especially SW of the U.K. including Wales & ROI. 100% improvement IMO

image.png

image.png

Edited by Draig Goch

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2 hours ago, beng said:

I reckon this 240 hours chart from ECM will be along the right lines in terms of the broad pattern. Assuming the MJO forecasts are to be believed we'd be somewhere around phase 6 towards the end of the month - which would favour high pressure developing around the UK - so expect the high to our South to edge northwards after this 240 hour chart.

If we then progress into Phase 7/8 - which is quite possible/likely (we did do during previous cycles this winter/last autumn - http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/) - then there's every chance that this will develop into some kind of Scandi block which then retrogresses - I'm thinking along a similar time frame to Feb 1991 - whether it packs any punch remains to be seen, but this winter may have a final kick to it.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foroper.shtml

ECH1-240.GIF?18-12

Basically we can forget about January (although it's been decent for some), but February really does like quite promising for now.

 

I have been touting the likelyhood an East/northeasterly due to strat/trop forcing towards end of Jan into Feb for a while now, but it really all comes down to the magnitude of the mjo forcing and strength of wave1.

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So far this winter we have not had to wait more than about a week or so after a cold:/snowy spell  to get a gist on the modelling of where the next burst of cold and snow may come from and I don't see any real difference to this going forward. Some are calling winter over but without wishing to offend,this probably has more to do with their impatience than anything else.

We have some suggesting that because this is a nina winter that the imprint of cold start mild finish means we are doomed and were this a super strong la nina then I might be drawn but this is a weak nina winter so I would argue that the overarching nina imprint is also weak and can allow other factors to overide it.

Further more despite the modelled milder spell after the weekend we have an extremely dishevelled and disorganised PV which from experience often leads to second half of winter action for the UK.

In addition the meto outlook stresses uncertainty for late January. and Feb.

The models in the short to medium term are doing exactly what GP said they would in terms of possibly over egging the azores high movement into Europe. This is something that could lead to sudden changes in the medium term output once the models start to correct back. We shall see how this pans out.

It seems to me that with so much still up in the air and while understanding the frustration of those yet to see any snow (and that includes myself) that writing off any further wintry weather just halfway through January is rather premature to say the very least. One thing is for certain no Meteorologist worth his salt would do such a thing.

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4 hours ago, carinthian said:

Mild all the way next week according to GFS model. Where can it all go wrong ?  Well done to most models with the track and timing of the disturbance that has gone through the British Isles last night. Our own fine mesh snow model did well in its predictive amount of snowfall here in  village, forecast was for 30cm at 1650m absl in location 2kmx2km, that's just amazing accuracy. Further up the mountain saw 50cm. Some picture this morning you might like to see or even enjoy. Regarding todays models not good but maybe UKMO holds a better prospect of Euro Ridging NE in the longer term.

C

26805383_1787793767899889_7484974240458087908_n.jpg

26841021_10156138040378628_2695078517046747374_o.jpg

Just as an observation of the updated fax at 120h, seems to indicate limited progress of the warm front on Sunday and then fronts /low seem to be sliding into the continent. Maybe I am reading more into this as a matter of hope. There again the UKMO model earlier had strong height rises at 144h after the clearance of the fronts and mild murk in the south. Maybe just to keep us interested in tonights run. Picture below of a friendly wave from near by Obertauren which is totally buried in snow at the moment. Its just crazy snowfest so far this winter.

C

fax120s.gif

26757759_10155792633919713_2823537203999388121_o.jpg

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Things must be bleak in the model output today we’ve not even moved on from page 4 in 10 hours :rofl::rofl:

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Good post there BB, it would not surprise me to see the ridge setting up away from mainland W. Europe having simply passed through that region along the way.

Refining what I posted this morning - the jet could dig straight into Europe via the UK again, but the MJO may well adjust from the GWO response such that the jet digs down to the west of Europe than then looks to undercut ridging that has displaced out of Europe to be centred or a little NE of the UK.

It depends just how much the Rossby wave & La Nina background suppresses the MJO signal as it moves through phases 5-6.

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif

ECMF has more members retaining more amplitude today. This makes the 00z operational seem a bit of an overly suppressed solution if interpreting from it's rather flat output in the Atlantic-European sector.

The 6-7 venture as we reach the final days of Jan and begin February seems to be ticking down like clockwork with this model, however...

ensplume_small.gif

GEFS shows little interest. 

IIRC, it's not often in the past few years that ECMF has been more keen on Pacific convection than GEFS. 

The big question then becomes whether we are seeing the La Nina atmospheric bias of GEFS impact the MJO predictions. What the actual propagation does over the next 4-5 days will be very telling. It's encouraging that so far into phase 4 (i.e. over the past two days), it has been more amplified and faster than the GEFS mean.

Essentially, GEFS currently depicts Tamara's Nina-wins scenario, and ECM the Nina-loses scenario. Helpful isn't it? :laugh:

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4 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Essentially, GEFS currently depicts Tamara's Nina-wins scenario, and ECM the Nina-loses scenario. Helpful isn't it? 

To be honest, even with the ECM take on the MJO, that would still be a big ask to override La Nina forcing. So more like "La Nina MIGHT not win". I think GWO output from ECM is not daily accessible. I'm sure a few are watching it, though.

In any event. It is likely to February now and it becomes a bigger ask as winter progresses. That line of dominoes is a little longer as the days roll on.

Just to add. This is in reference to HLB. The UK has done okay from ridges and cold zonal this winter. 

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Worth keeping an-eye on transitions sunday..

As a feature looms..and exactions are atm fraught with miss-dynamics.

And obviously the overal, setting into last part jan...far from deciphered...

Lots to watchout for imo!!??

gfs-0-54.png

gfs-2-54.png

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