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Model output discussion - mid January

Paul

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11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Evening All-

It’s been a poor few days - not helped in here by some people who may as well have the grim reaper following them around!

Whilst the Operationals & Ensembles don’t look that great I believe they are still being over progressive with eastward Atlantic progression & the ridge when it comes ( about 144-168 ) will be slightly better aligned - 

So whilst the medium period forecast has deteriorated I’m still positive that we will end up with a favourably positioned High pressure to the North east-

The ECM Op & control tonight are on a similar wavelength & judging by the UKMO 168 you would intimate that the 168-192 chart shows the ridge extending NE- although it may be hard to grasp what may be directly to our East / SE

heres the ECM day 10 control -

0236C7D1-644D-4FE7-B80F-6DED2E52909C.thumb.png.63a0e8be7b4413b2d71efe3a55a5b2ea.png 

which is why Day 11/12/13 get colder & colder-

Anyway that’s my perspective .....

thanks

i would agree with this. i said a couple of days ago we could end up with this scenario. assuming the models are underplaying the russian high, this would stop or slow the progression of the jet, allowing a more meridional flow, in turn forcing the azores high northwards towards greenland. if the two highs link up favourably with a trough over europe... well, its going to get a lot colder....

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GEM 12z has a ridge of high pressure building so could be a much better start to next week in the south as we lose the cold, wet weather and replace it with something much milder, drier and less windy too :)  

image.png

Edited by Draig Goch
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image.thumb.png.70a486ad098389d9fa553043b89c5716.pngimage.thumb.png.79e82b928de9b4f3af634ba69dcfb126.png

Fascinating GFS 18z so far,,,,,:angry:

image.thumb.png.317231a9bf2a88b25d64533d7388e86e.png

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2 minutes ago, Purga said:

image.thumb.png.70a486ad098389d9fa553043b89c5716.pngimage.thumb.png.79e82b928de9b4f3af634ba69dcfb126.png

Fascinating GFS 18z so far,,,,,:angry:

image.thumb.png.317231a9bf2a88b25d64533d7388e86e.png

For some it may not seem ideal but I think that it'd be nice to have this then chase the marginal rain/snow events or phantom easterlies.. A break from the unsettled windy weather here in the south would be lovely.

Sometimes we have to take what we get and if that is what we get, i'm not one to complain.

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It’s looking more likely now that next week will see the Azores High move east and amplify through Spain and head north east into Central Europe leaving the uk in a ssw west flow, the south and south east will see the driest and milder temps whilst north western parts will see more average temps under more influence of the upper trough centred around Iceland. Now the thing about the direction of amplification of the Azores though Central Europe intrigues me because it looks like it has the potential to link up with the Russian high and form a block which could retrogress towards the uk towards the end of next week and into the start of the week after. One to watch I think as this could be the holly grail set up. One issue though is the upper trough to our nw which also needs to move back to Canada so it will allow the Russian high to move west. 

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As I sit here in South Wales listening to the wind howling from yet another secondary low taking the same track for the 4th time this month and we're only just over half way through it, IMO it's an absolutely amazing GFS 18z with high pressure building in the south, so a very welcome relief from all this cold, wet and very windy weather with the low pressure drifting further north away from us :good: perhaps the start of a more substantial pattern change finally. 

Edited by Draig Goch
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6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Well, who knows. I could be the grim reaper who fell into a barrel of t*ts and came up sucking his thumb but I cannot  recall a cold ecm control run ever verifying :)

You must either be new to NWP addiction, or very young. Sorry if I sound trite, but the model that has previously handled northern blocking better than most, was the ECM. It, like all other models has it's bias and faults. but it is considered by most to be the most consistently successful and close to reality. 

Remember, all it takes is for a butterfly to flap it's wings... Somewhere!

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1 minute ago, Rocheydub said:

You must either be new to NWP addiction, or very young. Sorry if I sound trite, but the model that has previously handled northern blocking better than most, was the ECM. It, like all other models has it's bias and faults. but it is considered by most to be the most consistently successful and close to reality. 

Remember, all it takes is for a butterfly to flap it's wings... Somewhere!

Not new to NWP and not very young either so you may need to find another reason for our differing opinions :)

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1 hour ago, lorenzo said:

Perhaps the peak of the W2 split broke the ECM..http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=100&forecast=all&lng=eng

Here's hoping it does similar Long term damage to the vortex, although this will play out a fortnight from now once we see the path taken by the MJO..

The old upward thrust is certainly giving it a go - a corporal Jones special lets hope.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/strat.php?run=2018011718&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=384

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God bless the 18z gfs. It throws up the longest fetch easterly for about 60 years lol. 

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1 hour ago, bobbydog said:

i would agree with this. i said a couple of days ago we could end up with this scenario. assuming the models are underplaying the russian high, this would stop or slow the progression of the jet, allowing a more meridional flow, in turn forcing the azores high northwards towards greenland. if the two highs link up favourably with a trough over europe... well, its going to get a lot colder....

and the GFS skips the greenland stage and goes straight for the jackpot-

gfsnh-1-384.thumb.png.62922b819a8d903ed7602d5224cd9ca9.png

gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.cda561470c4fd215847c2d120323a934.png

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Possibly the most bizarre chart I’ve ever seen in my model watching days

1816297B-5E76-4847-AC2C-3FC8940F009C.thumb.png.a09754d5f7558beffccf6e591adec086.png

take a bow gfs, you’ve surpassed yourself there. Easterly from China, piece of cake :doh:

Edited by karlos1983

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Very quite and a bit miserable in here last couple of days , understandably giving the horrible output thought  I would post these from the pub run . Trends ??

 

IMG_1037.PNG

IMG_1038.PNG

IMG_1039.PNG

IMG_1036.PNG

Edited by ICE COLD
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The amount of verifying easterlies v model teases is like Arsenal’s shots to goals ratio!

Wheres Karlos he shares my pain! :D

When easterlies are good they knock spots off these recent PM slushfests but they seem to be so rare now.

It looks as if the models if they’re going to eventually get there are going to be going the long route with the help of the Azores high.

 

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11 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Possibly the most bizarre chart I’ve ever seen in my model watching days

1816297B-5E76-4847-AC2C-3FC8940F009C.thumb.png.a09754d5f7558beffccf6e591adec086.png

take a bow gfs, you’ve surpassed yourself there 

If the flow into UK had an even more NE'ly component to it and the isobars were straight all the way to what must be a residual chunk of vortex (1040mb pressure with sub 520 heights!!!), then it would be the best chart I have ever seen in my model watching days.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The amount of verifying easterlies v model teases is like Arsenal’s shots to goals ratio!  = other stuff

Wheres Karlos he shares my pain! :D

When easterlies are good they knock spots off these recent PM slushfests but they seem to be so rare now.

It looks as if the models if they’re going to eventually get there are going to be going the long route with the help of the Azores high.

 

I’m here, just figuring out how many shortwaves could possibly get in the way of that easterly :nonono:

ps. Don’t get me started on the other stuff:diablo:

Edited by karlos1983

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If the flow into UK had an even more NE'ly component to it and the isobars were straight all the way to what must be a residual chunk of vortex (1050mb pressure with sub 520 heights!!!), then it would be the best chart I have ever seen in my model watching days.

Bigger isn’t always better! :oops: :D

Some of the best easterlies have arrived  via the smaller Scandi high with PV chunk dropping south over western Russia .

These big highs look good but the UK is often at the weak end , the last big high I remember was Feb 2012.

The cold air struggled to get right the way through the UK although it brought some severe cold to mainland Europe.

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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Bigger isn’t always better! :oops: :D

Some of the best easterlies have arrived  via the smaller Scandi high with PV chunk dropping south over western Russia .

These big highs look good but the UK is often at the weak end , the last big high I remember was Feb 2012.

The cold air struggled to get right the way through the UK although it brought some severe cold to mainland Europe.

agreed as iposted earlier re - initial thin wedges with frigid close by, but the way that is setup with the aforementioned tweak, we would be looking at record breaking uppers if it went the journey.

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6 hours ago, carinthian said:

I feel very disheartened  for snow lover in lowland Southern Britain anyway, even though I am up to my neck in it !  It looks very much like a snowless January for many other lowlanders in Europe as well. Only hope now is to tap into the Brutal Cold now in Siberia as its really a flow from the east or northeast that will produce the goods down south. Lets hope for the biggest of flip of flips and a welcome nice surprise in February. 

C

You have to laugh ! The GS 18z run starts February with one mother of a Easterly with that brutal cold straight from Siberia. Hands up for keeping the mythological beast alive.

c

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28 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

and the GFS skips the greenland stage and goes straight for the jackpot-

gfsnh-1-384.thumb.png.62922b819a8d903ed7602d5224cd9ca9.png

gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.cda561470c4fd215847c2d120323a934.png

That would do me! Interesting that in GEFS of earlier I have saved some members were just like that.

FC1AB354-91F3-4FF4-BA62-1644A249B603.thumb.png.3952b5193175d3a17f7c29a566b3e6b8.png

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imagine the scenes if the GFS was to verify.

M1 Northbound -

1085.thumb.jpg.b9449f7784b504c06158484167687e39.jpg

just south of the M4 -

img_0536.thumb.jpg.078f73fbd588da8026f13e267332dbe9.jpg

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14 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

GFS been worryingly consistent over the last few days. It seems the fat lady's throat has recovered after our last scare and she's about to belt out one hell of an aria...

Whilst its been a good ride, its time to get off methinks. The writings on the wall with this thread, as all but the most dedicated cold ramper have jumped ship. The end is nigh for winter 17/18 I fear.

699650_orig.gif

That is just silly very silly to write off the rest of season at this point in high winter just because models don't see any sign of prolonged cold on the horizon. Go and look at the model charts from Jan/Feb 1991

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Did someone order double digit south westerlies?

gfs-9-144.png

gfs-0-144.png

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