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Model output discussion - mid January

Paul

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3 minutes ago, andymusic said:

whose broken the ECM - own up? lol

It’s on ecmwf.int 

looks broadly the same evolution as the 00z run 

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

It’s on ecmwf.int 

looks broadly the same evolution as the 00z run 

nothing on meteociel or wetterzentrale - thank you kindly

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No sign of mid or high latitude height rises on the latest ECM. High pressure over Russia too far away.

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There is still some Short term interest for coldies in Scotland & the north of England in the next 24 hours and again sunday into monday (plus parts of NE and eastern England) based on the 12z model suites, but alas for many us coldies outside these areas, today's model outputs can be described by the cunningly hidden subliminal mssage in this post.. :whistling:

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5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

No sign of mid or high latitude height rises on the latest ECM. High pressure over Russia too far away.

This "beast" from the east is too shy to be a beast. More like a reclusive hermit that hasn't left it's home for 30 years! 

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Fax charts haven't updated on meteociel either. 

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26 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

There is still some Short term interest for coldies in Scotland & the north of England in the next 24 hours and again sunday into monday (plus parts of NE and eastern England) based on the 12z model suites, but alas for many us coldies outside these areas, today's model outputs can be described by the cunningly hidden subliminal mssage in this post.. :whistling:

Quality..😂

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5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended looking milder

ukm2.2018012412_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.11bb2dd0153fb190471c64e906a1712c.png

t144 850's

UW144-7.thumb.GIF.e3701cb1a1cb9a2f3bc36dfd9bd9ffd9.GIF

Certainly back into the milder triangle of death!

Once again the cold syphoned into south east europe...

Its quite a turnaround in the last 24hrs or so!!!!

Edited by tight isobar
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JMA showing hints of being a bit more meridional with heights edging further north than other models.

 

IMG_3594.PNG

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GFS 12z shows a wedge of cold air across us by the end of next week with fleeting cold spells mixed with milder air. Getting much more exciting now for coastal areas with eastern parts of the Bristol Channel currently being one of the coldest areas of water in the UK, down to a very cold 5C that's the coldest I've seen for a number of years, IMO it's only a matter of time before we see at least a dusting of snow. 

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9 minutes ago, Johnp said:

JMA showing hints of being a bit more meridional with heights edging further north than other models.

 

IMG_3594.PNG

Looks like a customs scan of a gentleman's lower quarters ;-)

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2 minutes ago, Dafydd Tomos said:

GFS 12z shows a wedge of cold air across us by the end of next week with fleeting cold spells mixed with milder air. Getting much more exciting now for coastal areas with eastern parts of the Bristol Channel currently being one of the coldest areas of water in the UK, down to a very cold 5C that's the coldest I've seen for a number of years, IMO it's only a matter of time before we see at least a dusting of snow. 

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That might explain why surface CAPE levels were non existent through the channel yesterday, despite the torrential hail showers not one flash of lightning. Can't remember the last time I saw 5C. I'm now getting excited too, can't wait until February.

Icon & JMA also showing more cold air arriving from the NW after a mild period to start next week. 

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Just one set but the extended eps not looking that great - no real coherent signal but we have lost the significant heights to the north-east.

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8 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Just one set but the extended eps not looking that great - no real coherent signal but we have lost the significant heights to the north-east.

Great

I’m glad the ECM is broke on Meteociel same old s h i t e being spewn out as above. :p 

Perhaps a snowy Sunday to look forward to? According to ECM so I hear? I suppose GFS is more progressive then with the breakdown knowing the way of how things go, all will see cold rain.

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9 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Just one set but the extended eps not looking that great - no real coherent signal but we have lost the significant heights to the north-east.

Been trending blocked for quite a few days now. Where the blocking establishes remains uncertain but you can guess that the models wil put forward many options before it definitely ends up centred to our south! 

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Surprised to hear the extended EPS mean has no signal for NE heights - looking at the individual ECM ensemble members, more than 50% have strong heights to the east by D12 (though in a range of positions varying from to our ESE to NE). By D15, there is a lot more scatter but certainly not a zonal walkover.

 

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Latest from ECM

12Z data files will not be available. We contacted them and the problem will be handled tomorrow morning. Sorry for the inconveniance.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

Knocker has broken into the ECM office and stole the data from the very cold op run,he is getting his red crayons out now:rofl:

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1 hour ago, Dafydd Tomos said:

GFS 12z shows a wedge of cold air across us by the end of next week with fleeting cold spells mixed with milder air. Getting much more exciting now for coastal areas with eastern parts of the Bristol Channel currently being one of the coldest areas of water in the UK, down to a very cold 5C that's the coldest I've seen for a number of years, IMO it's only a matter of time before we see at least a dusting of snow. 

image.jpeg

image.png

May I ask where you can find sea temps? I haven't seen any maps like that before.

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While after this weeks excitement in Scotland and the north the models look rather unexciting in the medium. Perhaps one crumb of comfort can be drawn from the fact that the Meto are saying there is a great deal of uncertainty as we head into late January and February. I,m sure we,ll have some more interesting output to ponder in the not too distant future.

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