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Model output discussion - mid January

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Reasonably decent 240 ECM.

Primed for an attack towards Greenland what you think?

Cold air not far away

Screenshot_20180120-190012.png

Screenshot_20180120-190122.png

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Retrogression signal there definitely viable, at T+240 some shallow weak heights to the north too. I’m fairly confident this would go onto an arctic airstream story of the winter not having to wait long for interest.

4C97E3C2-3848-4AEC-8221-86CF286F2B9F.thumb.png.c1c94ea68eeb01e9b5f7c581d6acebd3.png

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51 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

We just  CANNOT get sustained northern blocking in the model output, during the winter months any more,thats  why only really Scotland are having a cold winter ,because their location is far enough north to benefit from colder maritime polar air than further south.

Further south you need maritime Arctic air or  continental polar/artic air to bring cold and snow further snow,because of the shorter sea track

thats the simple explanation,of the differences and still NO sign of blocking setting up in the correct location from ANY model to bring a decent cold spell for all the country.

It may be a simple explanation but completely inaccurate :oops:

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16 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

It may be a simple explanation but completely inaccurate :oops:

Ok that’s fair enough,but maybe you can explain what is needed to get cold weather and snow for much of low-lying land in the UK,  if you think Northern blocking and air masses  originating from that region is not accurate when looking for  cold weather then what is needed then:cc_confused:

Im just posting what I have read from weather books,that for much of the uk,to get a decent cold spell you need the air mass to be Arctic or continental in origin ,and none of the models are CURRENTLY showing that happening in the reliable time-frame at least.

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50 minutes ago, booferking said:

Primed for an attack towards Greenland what you think?

Cold air not far away

Screenshot_20180120-190012.png

Screenshot_20180120-190122.png

Yes - although you want some amplification upstream, in my opinion, you don't want the 'pathway' to deliver the intial north westerly into the UK littered with small troughs / shortwaves, you want it clean initially and any features to evelop close to the uk once cold air already over us.

Like this (of course never verify like this as its a mean of 50 members) but with a steeper flow with a more N'ly component and less W'ly.

EDH1-240_pku8.GIF

EDIT : that looks a very decent ECM mean btw to me.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

I’m here....

liking the swathe of nothingness to the north on the ECM

Still 7-8 weeks of snow potential for the UK remember !

728BDEAB-ECD2-4692-8702-1D6BCD32709D.thumb.png.0e35592d3781dd8316d125008571609d.png

Check that run out ive just posted right through to end Month 2 - that would surely give 47 and 63 a run for its money and with the fixture congestion in Aplril and may it wouldn't do Englands world cup any good.

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My sense, looking at all the mean, ensemble and cluster charts, is that a cold start to February is definitely possible but a snowy one is pretty unlikely. 

The ECM mean would probably get one thinking that an attack of heights towards Iceland might be possible

EDM1-240.GIF?20-0

but many clusters in the last four runs have done something a bit like the above (Azores high a little west), and they have almost all pushed heights east rather than north in the D11-D15 - compare the top two clusters from this morning's run which were not massively unlike tonight's mean and look where they go a few days later (control run is a complete outlier)

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018012000_264.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018012000_312.

i.e. heights pushed east not north

There is no cluster in the past few days that has raised heights over Greenland, but plenty that have done so slightly to our east. 

That would suggest we are more likely to see a continental ridge close to us. Could be cold (more likely in S) - but probably dry (again more likely in S)

Edited by Man With Beard

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13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Check that run out ive just posted right through to end Month 2 - that would surely give 47 and 63 a run for its money and with the fixture congestion in Aplril and may it wouldn't do Englands world cup any good.

Gone by the next run - I saw that on the cfs 0z run, 6z run back to mild mush!

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1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

Gone by the next run - I saw that on the cfs 0z run, 6z run back to mild mush!

I know - although that's 2 very cold runs in last 24 hours, the best way to view them for a forecasting POV is ensemble mean on the NOAA website but although just for fun, if another few of those were to come out over next couple of days thus then shifting the mean towards blocking then I would begin to get more interested, thee CFS is generally garbage but it does usually cotton on around now for next month when cold has verified in the past.

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1 minute ago, MP-R said:

That's what dreams are made of, though April looks a bit chilly and May is once again trough central!

Yes - in fact it even carries on into April - complete snowfests for large areas of lowland Britain right through mid April.

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Some *slight* improvement temps-wise on the GFS today so far. Not screaming DDD (double digit dross) like it was a few days ago. ECM is still showing at least 4 days of such muck next week though.

You could write the model output discussion soundtrack:

  • Some truly awful outputs: cry me a river :cray:
  • The trend to said outputs: highway to hell :shok:
  • The possibility of that being the foreseeable outcome: time to say goodbye :80:
  • And when we get the 18z pub run: will you still love me tomorrow? :nea:

 

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How accurate is the ICON model when it comes to ppn?

As this looks way off for such a short timescale???...

iconeu_uk1-42-2-0.thumb.png.7e2173af89d16a9718b1b9b17c8b6739.png vs radarCapture.thumb.JPG.fbd32c35e4a453cad321b1a80357305a.JPG

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1 minute ago, doctor32 said:

How accurate is the ICON model when it comes to ppn?

As this looks way off for such a short timescale???...

iconeu_uk1-42-2-0.thumb.png.7e2173af89d16a9718b1b9b17c8b6739.png vs radarCapture.thumb.JPG.fbd32c35e4a453cad321b1a80357305a.JPG

Not very.

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Not very.

So i should not use it for tomorrows snow potential then?

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1 minute ago, doctor32 said:

How accurate is the ICON model when it comes to ppn?

As this looks way off for such a short timescale???...

iconeu_uk1-42-2-0.thumb.png.7e2173af89d16a9718b1b9b17c8b6739.png vs radarCapture.thumb.JPG.fbd32c35e4a453cad321b1a80357305a.JPG

Looks way North on radar.  Pretty big differences at such a short range? :sorry:

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1 minute ago, doctor32 said:

So i should not use it for tomorrows snow potential then?

No - look at this chart here.

iconeu_uk1-1-19-0_rsb2.png

Its has heavy snow over me and for the previous 3 hours - if I get 8cm and parts of the East midlands get 15cm tomorrow I will eat my duodenum.

iconeu_uk1-45-21-0_lts9.png

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1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

Ok that’s fair enough,but maybe you can explain what is needed to get cold weather and snow for much of low-lying land in the UK,  if you think Northern blocking and air masses  originating from that region is not accurate when looking for  cold weather then what is needed then:cc_confused:

Im just posting what I have read from weather books,that for much of the uk,to get a decent cold spell you need the air mass to be Arctic or continental in origin ,and none of the models are CURRENTLY showing that happening in the reliable time-frame at least.

OK mate thanks for your reply.....will show some charts to answer your question tomorrow. ...:hi:meanwhile the mild weather progged  from the models is decreasing by the hour....a very interesting winter and bloody cold:cold:

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The theme of the winter so far has been for any tropical maritime airstream to be quickly shoved aside thanks to enough amplification in upstream flow to kick the azores high back west quickly pulling down northwesterly, and the models for next week are continuing this theme, suggestion of a long lived longdrawn southwesterly now disappearing down the pan, yes a couple of very mild days tures-wed more so in the south then ite back to cool NW flow.

What are the models showing next, a resurgent azores high building northwards into southern regions probably stretching into the near continent, bringing dry mild conditions by day, return of frost by night, the north prone to atlantic incursions - but crucially the jet is forecast to be much weaker, and this should allow heights to build further north and possibly NE blocking out the atlantic as we enter February - a good building block to a possible colder period, not necessarily snowy though! This is very much an episodic winter; it continues to be a forecasters headache with no force seeming to win the battle.

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Here is a realistic map of lying snow tomorrow.

18012118_2012.gif

 

And here is a 8ullshit one.

iconeu_uk1-46-25-0_wot4.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here is a realistic map of lying snow tomorrow.

18012118_2012.gif

 

And here is a 8ullshit one.

iconeu_uk1-46-25-0_wot4.png

That is ridiculous really... at least the realistic one is good for me, although i already have lying snow so could just be showing that haha

Hope this is just a mild blip and the models show some more blocking that is favourable to the uk soon

Edited by doctor32
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