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Model output discussion - mid January


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Message added by Paul

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14 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Nice to see some Purbs going very cold again towards the end of the run, one to watch


They’re the best I’ve seen in years exciting ! what I’ve been waiting for five years for this. :) 

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5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm really excited about next week's nationwide wintry potential, the Gfs 6z for example shows ice days, very frosty, icy nights and at least some snow at times, parts of the uk may do very well for snow and frosts would be severe over the snow fields. There is reload after reload of cold through low res with just a few mild days..plenty of wintry weather looks to be on the way next week ❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄:cold::)

Yup pretty exciting indeed and Tuesday is starting to appear to have good potential snow-wise, maybe some snow showers in the south with the bitterly cold uppers clipping this area on Monday.

The stockpiling of cold air to our east is impressive. The Scandi high may get pushed back a bit further east. We would still be left in very cold air. However to tap into some really serious cold we want the high to remain over Scandi. Not beyond the realms of possibility given the 06z ensemble set.

Given cold air can be very stubborn and we have a very strong MJO phase coming up we may see this for a while, lets see what happens though.

We just need to focus up to around T144 given the synoptic pattern and the signs look good!

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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London ECM temperature ensemble time series below.

Latest 15 days together temperature forecast for London

Cold and trending colder!

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Locking this one now, new thread:. 


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      Please continue with the model discussion here, as we perhaps head towards the hottest spell of what has already been a rare, very dry, very warm summer?
      Please keep on topic in this thread, by only discussing the model output. This isn't the place to be discussing (or arguing) over weather preferences and the like, so please don't be tempted to go there! And as ever, please also keep it friendly...
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