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Model output discussion - mid January

Paul

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Just this minute treated myself to the GFS 12Z animation. It screams: aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaarrrgh!!!:sorry:

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Looking at the latest runs make you realise that in terms of model watching (though not always matched by the actual weather) this has been a good, interesting Winter so far.

The GFS 12z just reminds me of the last few Winters of zooming through the charts, sighing and leaving the page.

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Steve Murr s 72 hours for this winters signature pattern is almost upon us.... should be interesting give the latest from GFS..... suspect it’ll be quietly ditched

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Ditched the easterly at the start of the week.

But possibly Feb will deliver.

But nothing showing as of yet.

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Not sure any amount of spin can save tonights outputs so far.

Dreadful stuff from a cold perspective, the GFS was a sleeping pill , one felt it could have gone on for another two weeks and the flat pattern would have have just continued.

Until more amplification shows upstream then I'm afraid we're stuck in a rut.

Even the GEFS have dropped any pretensions, and little sign of the high to the south being pulled much further north or ne.

 

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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Not sure any amount of spin can save tonights outputs so far.

Dreadful stuff from a cold perspective, the GFS was a sleeping pill , one felt it could have gone on for another two weeks and the flat pattern would have have just continued.

Until more amplification shows upstream then I'm afraid we're stuck in a rut.

Even the GEFS have dropped any pretensions, and little sign of the high to the south being pulled much further north or ne.

 

The only possible crumb of comfort on the GEFS is deep in FI there are hints - the tiniest hints it has to be said, but the pattern does look like retrogression is an option.

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

The only possible crumb of comfort on the GEFS is deep in FI there are hints - the tiniest hints it has to be said, but the pattern does look like retrogression is an option.

Just looking at the MJO forecasts and lets hope the GEFS are wrong because they go from phase 4 into the COD, the worst possible outcome.

If the ECM continues with its MJO view then that's the output more likely to throw some hope. That goes from phase 4 into phase 6 within the next 10 days.

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9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Just looking at the MJO forecasts and lets hope the GEFS are wrong because they go from phase 4 into the COD, the worst possible outcome.

If the ECM continues with its MJO view then that's the output more likely to throw some hope. That goes from phase 4 into phase 6 within the next 10 days.

There is a strat warming going on now - I'm led to believe its caused by a mountain torque event in the Indian sector (around 3-4), when we get these top down warmings (although at the moment its certainly looking heavy odds against an SSW), just wandering if the MJO then continuing around into 7 and 8 (usually the best for blocking) is what causes the blocking or the fact that the mountain torque event has already been instigated then leads to the warming and subsequent blocking and whether or not its just a co-incidence that the blocking and MJO 7 or 8 have happened within a certain timeframe because strat warmings and the MJO both have time lags.

In other words cause and effect.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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As others have said little sign in the output at the moment of any Atlantic mid latitude highs trying to ridge north. Do not for one moment believe though that this is because of low AAM or Nina signal that would be plain wrong. From what I can see at the moment is that wave 1 forcing is pushing the vortices down towards our side of the pole from the Pacific and without really any wave 2 response despite being told heights over Alaska and Scandi are conducive to wave to propagation going forward (another red herring) we would really need to see a strong phase 7-8 signal in the mid to long term.

Edited by comet
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8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

There is a strat warming going on now - I'm led to believe its caused by a mountain torque event in the Indian sector (around 3-4), when we get these top down warmings (although at the moment its certainly looking heavy odds against an SSW), just wandering if the MJO then continuing around into 7 and 8 (usually the best for blocking) is what causes the blocking or the fact that the mountain torque event has already been instigated then leads to the warming and subsequent blocking and whether or not its just a co-incidence that the blocking and MJO 7 or 8 have happened at a timeframe because strat warmings and the MJO both have time lags.

Mountain torques aren't my forte unfortunately.  In terms of the MJO phases 6 and 7 are correlated as pre -cursors to SSW's. Over half of all verified SSW"s have those as a pre-cursor.

Its a bit like the chicken and the egg though. The more amplified phases of the MJO will drive more warmer air into the Arctic.

 

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The UKMO is the flattest upstream at T144hrs. The ECM as per usual the most amplified.

The ECM does at least bring in some cooler air at times but I’m very dubious when it shows the most amplified pattern. We’ve been here before many times during the winter!

After that it looks similar to the GFS.

 

 

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I presume the building of High pressure from the Azores in fl  from ecm, gfs   bringing very much milder weather will most probably verify.

Of course if they both showing very much colder   weather with high pressure building down from the Arctic you just know 100% they would NOT  verify.

You just know it don’t you:nonono:

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Absolute filth :nonono:

D82AF1D8-FAF3-496C-AF85-A0353FD8723D.thumb.png.6fda316274e77703ef3b0158ec79975d.png

not what a coldie wants to see for end of Jan. 

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Just now, karlos1983 said:

Absolute filth :nonono:

D82AF1D8-FAF3-496C-AF85-A0353FD8723D.thumb.png.6fda316274e77703ef3b0158ec79975d.png

not what a coldie wants to see for end of Jan. 

This is not a bad chart going forward. European heights underpinning it in MJO phase 6 and would be more likely from that position to build a classic high level block from there North East/West as we hit phase 7/8. Lots to be positive about and building blocks. We have to go through a UK high to get to an MJO induced Scandi or green one. People are being impatient and the negativity is painful to listen to!

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3 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

This is not a bad chart going forward. European heights underpinning it in MJO phase 6 and would be more likely from that position to build a classic high level block from there North East/West as we hit phase 7/8. Lots to be positive about and building blocks. We have to go through a UK high to get to an MJO induced Scandi or green one. People are being impatient and the negativity is painful to listen to!

I agree. I am feeling more optimistic about the end of Jan/early Feb. Our most classic cold spells have almost always been preceded by an anticyclonic spell over or close to the UK. Time to keep the faith. 

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Just now, blizzard81 said:

I agree. I am feeling more optimistic about the end of Jan/early Feb. Our most classic cold spells have almost always been preceded by an anticyclonic spell over or close to the UK. Time to keep the faith. 

Agreed. People forget the UK high in 2010. People need to be patient. Week 2 February is the landing date for our best cold spell for me so we won't see these charts at day 10 for another week or so

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9 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Absolute filth :nonono:

D82AF1D8-FAF3-496C-AF85-A0353FD8723D.thumb.png.6fda316274e77703ef3b0158ec79975d.png

not what a coldie wants to see for end of Jan. 

I know many are quick to call HP centered over Europe as Bartlett high often wrongly but this is, a winter killer. Perhaps a slimmer of hope on ECM 12Z T+240 it will retrogress with that amplified ridge off E CONUS.

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15 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Absolute filth :nonono:

D82AF1D8-FAF3-496C-AF85-A0353FD8723D.thumb.png.6fda316274e77703ef3b0158ec79975d.png

not what a coldie wants to see for end of Jan. 

but what a dry weather fan dosen't mind seeing, trend on last few GFS and EC to dry things out, but we all know nearer the time it will be more unsettled than models currently showing, happens in summer too

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26 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Absolute filth :nonono:

D82AF1D8-FAF3-496C-AF85-A0353FD8723D.thumb.png.6fda316274e77703ef3b0158ec79975d.png

not what a coldie wants to see for end of Jan. 

looks good to me, very similar to the chart of the 18th of January 2012, well that got you guys nothing but it sure worked for us across the pond :p

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First decent one of these for a long time FWIW.

cfs-2-2-2018_uau4.png

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32 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

This is not a bad chart going forward. European heights underpinning it in MJO phase 6 and would be more likely from that position to build a classic high level block from there North East/West as we hit phase 7/8. Lots to be positive about and building blocks. We have to go through a UK high to get to an MJO induced Scandi or green one. People are being impatient and the negativity is painful to listen to!

I’d rather not take that gamble, if ever there was a choice, which there isn’t. These are more likely to hang around like a bad smell, than slip off north or north east! We’ve seen many more hang around than go north. At least it would be dry...... 

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36 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Absolute filth :nonono:

D82AF1D8-FAF3-496C-AF85-A0353FD8723D.thumb.png.6fda316274e77703ef3b0158ec79975d.png

not what a coldie wants to see for end of Jan. 

Looks ok to me dry frosty in south milder north west you go and still long way out so maybe as we approach time frame high could be further north or east..

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It's just one set but the extended eps are horrific tonight.  Low heights close to Iceland, high heights over continental Europe (Euro High).

Let's hope it is a blip.

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21 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I’d rather not take that gamble, if ever there was a choice, which there isn’t. These are more likely to hang around like a bad smell, than slip off north or north east! We’ve seen many more hang around than go north. At least it would be dry...... 

True HLB happens in this way you need a ticket to enter the raffle. Relying on WAA is fraught with short wave drama. Look at the darker red colour on the 500 Heights they are closer to the pole so when we get amplification there's less amplification needed to establish blocking 

Edited by inghams85
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Having followed this thread for about 3 winters, and with limited knowledge, and living darn south (below m4 by 10 miles!!!) even I recognise that despite some great potential this year it really has been so close but no cigar and i think that's how it might stay down here. I'm blaming the ecm...proper eye candy with no end product! I dont have any models to post, my post will almost definitely get moved to another thread but at least that's something that will have at least verified this winter! Some excellent experts on here...keep up the good work!

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