Model output discussion - mid January

[Allseasons-Si]

11 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

All i see is trough disruption after trough disruption,we  could be buried come this time next week.

The main player is in fact our ridge that developes in to Scandi/west Russia deflecting lows on a NW to SE tragectory.

Edited January 31, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[Ice Day]

OK, so now I have my breath back, time to return to terra firma.  From 90 - 222 hours that was probably the best run I've seen in the internet age.  We need to see how the ensembles are as this could be a large outlier.  We should also prepare ourselves for slightly less spectacular output in the morning, let's face it they can hardly upgrade from here (he says trying to temp fate).  But even a watered down version should give the a decent wintry outbreak.

 

[karlos1983]

That truly was a “Pun run special” 

i cant remember a more relentless operational run in terms of cold in my days of watching this model malarkey. 

[Purga]

Just when it looks like it may be over and a westerly regime is setting up

Blink... and BHAM... another freezing easterly blast

 

[ANYWEATHER]

• Tits up tomorrow  then 

[snefnug]

3 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

Not nice??

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

• Tits up tomorrow  then 

Snow down at the weekend then

night all.

Edited January 31, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[bobbydog]

the 18z is snowier than snowy the snowman's snowiest snowball in a snowstorm!

[ICE COLD]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You just beat me to it!!

It's not right at the end either that charts at T288 . Back to the run again and that was the best run I have ever seen I think bloody amazing . Even in FI the beast comes back . ?

[SMU]

21 minutes ago, TheBeastFromTheEAST said:

U mentioned kent... I like the sound of that.. ☺

BBC weather at 2155 say cold from now and colder all next week with snow possible anywhere. Could you just confirm that the cold showing coming from the east is whats showing still as the main player only they say Northwestly all next week with the Azores high drifting closer to the uk? Thanks Steve.

It’s a tricky call-

The charts for midweek next week up till lunch today we’re orientated as an exact 50/50 split across the UK with the NW encroachment up by say Cumbria & the continental flow extent well into the midlands - The slither If milder uppers ( -6c ) was the dividing line-

However ECM & GFS 18z now have made more of the bottom end of the Scandi High from 120-168 allowing for more of a ‘continued’ Easterly theme weds & beyond -

Treat this like a see - saw 

* More Easterly strength = Less NW progression SE over the Uk & vice Verda-

At the moment I think the NW flow will be very restricted to Ireland etc - with the rest of the UK very very cold ( ice days ) 

This is of course based on the premise that the Easterly does set up properly as depicted @96- ...

[Purga]

2 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

the 18z is snowier than snowy the snowman's snowiest snowball in a snowstorm!

That's snow joke...

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Well I don't really like to get too excited but "oh my god" the 18z is probably the best run I have seen on here  spectacular. 

[snowice]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Snow down at the weekend

night all.

Night till 4am for the ooz ? 

[Blizzardof82]

Great runs today but where is Frosty?

[Met4Cast]

Given that we're talking about times just 96hrs away for the beginning of the Easterly component (and thus the much colder air) we'll know by the 06z whats going to happen. If the 06z runs continue to show this, then for me it's utterly game on and we can start getting rather quite excited. 

[Decemberof2010]

Just now, Blizzardof82 said:

Great runs today but where is Frosty?

Still Uploading the highlights of tonight's 18z. He should be done for midnight

[karlos1983]

This bodes very well indeed in terms of how our ens graph may look!

 

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

What fascinates me watching this GFS 18z roll out is the sheer scale of the cold uppers on offer across our part of the hemisphere.

It seems to me that anywhere North of 50N is in the firing line whether you look East or West.  Fair enough you could expect uppers in the -10 to -12 range just across the North Sea during a continental freeze up but to see the same kind of uppers stretching across the Atlantic to our West is pretty remarkable!

It's not the first time this Winter we have seen this either.  I can only assume it is changes over the Arctic such as icemelt which is cooling the North Atlantic down and with the savagely cold Polar Vortex almost becoming a semi permanent feature across Canada / N USA in recent years it is allowing for such conditions albeit modified to seep across the pond to the UK?

Whatever it is it is making for a much more relaxing time when viewing the models knowing that Atlantic incursions could actually be colder than our friend The Beast from the East!  The Guest from the West?!  

Edited January 31, 2018 by Kentish Snowman

[Met4Cast]

I think the Control run has ordered in a few more shots to celebrate with the OP. It's a yes

 

[Sawel]

If 18z GFS comes to fruition then scenes like this will be common in 7-10 days time...

North of the M4

South of the M4

Edited January 31, 2018 by Sawel

[karlos1983]

Just now, Sawel said:

If 18z GFS comes to fruition then scenes like this will be common in 7-10 days time...

North of the M4

 

You won’t be able to see the M4, so fear not. 

Edited January 31, 2018 by karlos1983

[Chertseystreamer79]

If the 18z verifies or disappears by morning I think it will always be referred to as 'THAT PUB RUN'

 

 

incredible scenes!

Edited January 31, 2018 by Chertseystreamer79

[supernova]

Best pub run since 2010 far as I can remember. Not saying for a moment the outcome is likely to verify and/or be comparable but truly an epic GFS tonight. So good, in fact, I'd be surprised if the Op doesn't stand out like a parsnip on a snowman when we get the ensembles. Here's praying it doesn't. Either way, joyful model watching tonight. Snow dreams all.

[Nick F]

Only just looked at 18z and tuned in here, but rather unusual to see a protracted flow from points east for such long period in a GFS run, from t+78 right through to t+384 the flow across much of southern Britain is from the NE, E or SE and bitterly cold too. Looks too good to be true and probably is, but by no means are we in for the usual short cold snap next week before mild Atlantic flow returns, newer and newer runs today suggest no end in sight to cold weather with risk of snow. But with the UK under a col (neither low or high pressure in control), anything could happen.

Edited January 31, 2018 by Nick F

[SMU]

News from the ENS

Mean @120 for the first time has -10c into Norfolk 

Also in the 144-168 arena more runs deepening the Italian low pulsing Easterlies Across Europe ( one to keep an eye on )

S