Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - mid January


Paul
Message added by Paul

Before posting in to the model discussion, please read our guide to posting in the model threads.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

So let’s talk parameters

Theta E 6c. Check

735A5FD1-F912-411E-B016-E298A79617B5.thumb.png.8ff007472fca98c9f835176d07f6764a.png

 

850 Thicknesses - 1260-70 incoming check

A1EBA35A-B7BA-4F46-9946-70864CB591C6.thumb.png.34fbe4f3f1808065216a6b9449a4ce5e.png

850 Temps -12 / -13c   check

FD507B8C-65E8-4300-B0F4-575ED03DA416.thumb.png.e1979b56ca1930df23ddfe03ea978929.png

 

Convective snow Window from 96 to 126 from the east = 30 hours.... 

ideal location - Suffolk / Mid Kent / East Kent - Then eyes to the NW..

s

Are we sure we will be looking to the NW or will we stil be looking East?!!!

gfsnh-0-144_yss8.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Ding ding...Easterly Round 2.  -12's pouring in from the North Sea, this is turning into and epic run here.

gfsnh-0-150.png?18 gfsnh-1-150.png?18

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Because it's the 18z...always OTT or underwhelming.

Dont be too sure on that stat!...

18z performed ok last 12 months..

I'll try post compare suites asap...

Not far lagging behind ozz ...i think..on a suite 2 suite basis...

Edited by tight isobar
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

h850t850eu.png h850t850eu.png

Wait, we finally actually have a proper pub run?

First the LP drops down much cleaner akin to the ECM 12z, and then we see a good deal more amplification upstream which increases the odds of the Azores High becoming a helping hand rather than a hindrance.

hgt300.pnghgt300.png

Okay so maybe there is a slight jittery nature to my typing now...

h850t850eu.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Llangwm, Dyfed
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but wind & rain
  • Location: Llangwm, Dyfed
2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

who lives in NE Scotland to SW england:rofl:

gfs-1-138.png?18

still cold though:)

and there is no way out of this cold spell if it goes to plan.

 

Thats where the front has stalled and dumping all the snow 

gfsnh-2-138.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

At this rate,the trough disruption will happen in the NE states lol

in all seriousness,this is an epic run

Siberian express on the way if this came off

gfsnh-0-162.png?18gfsnh-1-162.png?18

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
20 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

I don’t know if anyone saw this earlier but the uppers are quite something heading in from the ECM

E1D79004-FEFC-4DAB-9441-FDD8DEE8DB66.jpeg

It's not Dad's Army :)

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
3 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Because it's the 18z...always OTT or underwhelming.

Well according to a NOAA scientist that’s not true each run should be treated equally. Trend setter. :laugh:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

It’s been a long time so it’s not surprising that some may have forgotten just how stubborn scandi heights can be once established! It should come as no surprise if it decides to stick around!

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham

The upgrades continue to appear and the 7th onwards is now zoning in. Tomorrow's runs could be very special and with stratstratospheric feedbacks and blocking expected to retrogress to Greenland in MJO phase 8 this could be very very very special! 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
2 hours ago, snowray said:

Reminds me of some of the snow events from the early 90's, on one occasion I remember well it snowed as far east as Heathrow, parts of the west were snowed in.:)

Here we go, this is exactly what I had in mind. Front stalls in the west and gets pushed back by the cold in the east, classic. Some place could get 24 hours of snow, Wales, SW, NW would do best, and of course Scotland. The snow could extend into the Midlands as well. :)

SE will have to content themselves with snow showers.

gfs-2-126.png

gfs-2-132.png

gfs-2-138.png

gfs-2-144.png

gfs-2-150.png

gfs-1-150.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Are we sure we will be looking to the NW or will we stil be looking East?!!!

gfsnh-0-144_yss8.png

Remember the 7th/8th/9th for easterly winds and expected trough disruption we spoke about mate two days ago ;'-)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

I've not posted for a while but tonights update has me crawling out of the wood work (so given how this winter has been so far, expect downgrades all the way from here because that seems to be the theme as soon as I become interested)

Great 18z run. Liam Dutton said on Twitter earlier though that the 18z and 06z generally shouldn't be paid too much attention to due to less starting data, so looks like that's not just a myth amongst these forums.

Having said that - If the 18z is right, we'll probably be seeing Satellite pictures of the entire UK covered with snow.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

gfsnh-0-174.png?18

 

If we can get high pressure better placed near Scandi as here then the ridging in the Atlantic should be much better due to the trough being held up - should be a classic.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

At 174 and yet another pulse of cold from the east/north east.  This is never ending!!!

gfsnh-0-174.png?18 gfs-1-174.png?18

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
3 minutes ago, Danny* said:

I've not posted for a while but tonights update has me crawling out of the wood work (so given how this winter has been so far, expect downgrades all the way from here because that seems to be the theme as soon as I become interested)

Great 18z run. Liam Dutton said on Twitter earlier though that the 18z and 06z generally shouldn't be paid too much attention to due to less starting data, so looks like that's not just a myth amongst these forums.

Having said that - If the 18z is right, we'll probably be seeing Satellite pictures of the entire UK covered with snow.

In the nicest possible way then, would you mind deleting above post and leaving immediately. You may return once cold uppers are established :rofl:

mild sector almost non existent as precip marches towards us from the NW

BC43D77D-2C62-468D-8721-A00F9A65FF00.thumb.png.35720a0f746c66301b57710e0aa6a171.png96990DBA-9160-4D88-B121-A6FB11311572.thumb.png.b77767289553c405fd6fd0d8904b005a.png

Edited by karlos1983
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

313 members viewing tonight not surprised when we have got beautiful charts to look at like this beast  ?

IMG_1172.PNG

Edited by ICE COLD
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...