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Model output discussion - mid January


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK

I think we've an epic February on our hands. 2009 teases - a cold December, mild January and that famous snow event in the February. Perhaps even a Feb 1986 with the cold. I think even in Weston-super-Mare we may see a good bit of snow! 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Minus 12 nudging into the NE by 108,a significant upgrade over the 12z

gfs-1-108.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS now aligned to the ECM @96 with snow showers moving into the SE corner in SUB -10c air...

stella tastic

47A749DD-49E1-4731-8AF6-CDC99B6D8C8E.thumb.png.c81212d8ca4484ce9be009835418a653.pngFE790C52-BDD8-4ED3-9055-ED0C8BC845BD.thumb.png.07015ff68251334d2a2cf0a523293947.png

Looking good Steve ?. Just wanted to say keep up the good work on here , I love your posts/commentary it makes this forum. And there's loads more very good posters but Steve is number 1 LOL . 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

18z brings deeper cold in for sure

D44B373F-169D-4E15-A58D-60649B4F886B.thumb.png.dcd7c3dab8587c3a576e9dcd3b120f3f.png555C9193-9439-4357-B531-24FC65C5FA55.thumb.png.0fc50300ab42d5543ee815ccde700161.png

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

:cold::cold::cold:

gfs-1-108.png?18
Related image

Edited by PerfectStorm
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Nice back swerve...

And for compansation..we have mighty cold ebbing into the north atlantic..

Its one way traffic 2 cold!!!!

gfs-0-108.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Mild sector gone by 120:yahoo:

gfs-1-120.png?18gfs-1-126.png?12

this is turning out to be Scand-tastic:D

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Good lord there's some frigid uppers crossing the North Sea.  The mild wedge is shrinking away as well.

gfs-1-120.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

You okay there liam??!!!

images.jpeg

gfsnh-0-126.png

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Out to 138....wow.  Just wow.

gfsnh-0-138.png?18   gfs-1-138.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)

Everyone who earlier predicted that winter was over has been proven absolutely spot on.

Over the East Coast at 96hrs and the rest of the country soon thereafter. Cheers! :rofl:

102-779UK.GIF

96-779UK.GIF

200-2.gif

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So let’s talk parameters

Theta E 6c. Check

735A5FD1-F912-411E-B016-E298A79617B5.thumb.png.8ff007472fca98c9f835176d07f6764a.png

 

850 Thicknesses - 1260-70 incoming check

A1EBA35A-B7BA-4F46-9946-70864CB591C6.thumb.png.34fbe4f3f1808065216a6b9449a4ce5e.png

850 Temps -12 / -13c   check

FD507B8C-65E8-4300-B0F4-575ED03DA416.thumb.png.e1979b56ca1930df23ddfe03ea978929.png

 

Convective snow Window from 96 to 126 from the east = 30 hours.... 

ideal location - Suffolk / Mid Kent / East Kent - Then eyes to the NW..

s

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

who lives in NE Scotland to SW england:rofl:

gfs-1-138.png?18

still cold though:)

and there is no way out of this cold spell if it goes to plan.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Nice back swerve...

And for compansation..we have mighty cold ebbing into the north atlantic..

Its one way traffic 2 cold!!!!

gfs-0-108.png

Yes I noticed the back swerve too tbh, much better than the 12z imo

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

Out to 138....wow.  Just wow.

gfsnh-0-138.png?18   gfs-1-138.png?18

Wow lovely trough disruption I prefer this to ECM and that’s saying something....

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

Wow what a 18z GFS. These upgrades really have progressed fast in the last day or two. 

These really are remarkable charts. Yes we may have seen slightly colder uppers than this reaching our shores from the East before but to have an extensive mass of -10 uppers approaching from the West also is truly amazing.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
10 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Minus 12 nudging into the NE by 108,a significant upgrade over the 12z

gfs-1-108.png?18

Because it's the 18z...always OTT or underwhelming.

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