Model output discussion - mid January

[joggs]

21 minutes ago, Summerstorm said:

Just for fun of course as it is out in FI but here is the uppers chart to go with it. I will coin the famous phrase and say what could go wrong 

 

The old fi,low res tease lol

[shaky]

Jma takes a backward step in regards to scandi heights at 84 hours compared to yesterday for the same timeframe!!might not seem much but little things like this could affect the overall pattern!!hopefully ecm gives a beaut of a run to calm the nerves!!

[bobbydog]

14 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

It's hardly "whining". And to be honest I agree with @Optimus Prime - on face value I can't see anything noteworthy in low res, but I will bow to those with better knowledge!

eh paul?

you can't see anything noteworthy in low res??

whats this? -

its not candy floss!...

[MattTarrant]

2 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

eh paul?

you can't see anything noteworthy in low res??

whats this? -

its not candy floss!...

I think he means 'High Res'

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:

I think he means 'High Res'

By this time tomorrow it'll be High Noon: Oh don't forsake me oh my darlin'...

[Paul_1978]

2 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:

I think he means 'High Res'

Yes I did thank you. I can no longer edit my post.

However point till stands - nothing particularly noteworthy <240. 

Would be delighted to be proven wrong. 

[snowray]

38 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Now this I will only believe when I see it!

I am seriously fed up with these very snowy armageddon FI charts at D13, D14, D15. Blinking ridiculous, and they show up again, and again, run, after run, then they just......VANISH in thin air! Soooooooo Annoying!

The 06z was showing even more nationwide snowfall at D15 so this is a downgrade I guess.

[supernova]

GEM struggles to get uppers much past -4 throughout. Very flat after this weekend, very meh.

 

[Decemberof2010]

I'll say it before anyone else.

Ignore the GEM it's cannon fodder

(if it's showing what nobody wants)

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, supernova said:

GEM struggles to get uppers much past -4 throughout. Very flat after this weekend, very meh.

 

GEM notoriously bad for uppers.

no that’s not a euphemism 

[Devonshire]

40 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I’m already wondering what’s for desert

The Sahara has already had snow this month

[Methuselah]

11 minutes ago, snowray said:

I am seriously fed up with these very snowy armageddon FI charts at D13, D14, D15. Blinking ridiculous, and they show up again, and again, run, after run, then they just......VANISH in thin air! Soooooooo Annoying!

The 06z was showing even more nationwide snowfall at D15 so this is a downgrade I guess.

Well SR, if the 18Z isn't a downgrade I'll eat someone-else's hat!

[Duane S.]

Some GEFS members still toying with the notion of very interesting and favourable trough disruption straight after the initial ridge.

Edited January 31, 2018 by s4lancia

[Singularity]

 

 

That Siberian High has been trending stronger with each new run today and the 12z is the second run in a row to have it take a nice long vacation toward Greenland or thereabouts, with increasingly frigid results for the UK.

The associated diving troughs into Europe fit well with the MJO analogues for a 6-7 traversal in Nina years, so this suggestion from GFS is very realistic in terms of the overall progression. The details on the other hand...! Past experience tells us all too strongly how much the models tend to be overly 'smooth' and 'clean' at such range, with not enough disturbances in the flow messing with the cold air transport.

 

Before all that we still have the cold weather looking likely for much of next week, and yes it is a shame how that low to the east has moved into a less helpful position on the 12z runs so far (there's a regional anomaly such as I cautioned about earlier!) but with such deep cold pooling around it, this need not affect the frontal boundary stall-slide process as much as the models may suggest. In this respect, UKMO's sudden progressiveness going from day 5 to day 6 is pretty odd to look at. In any case, that low to the east might well move a fair bit again anyway, so let's not go throwing toys about just yet... 

[tight isobar]

12z ens/london..

Im still smiling ☺

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

Nothing marginal about this chart

Bearing in mind the UKMO has led the whole thing, no need for worry with this chart. This is a snow maker.

[The Northern Ramper]

1 hour ago, bobbydog said:

sidney wont be happy...

Those charts cannot be right as they show snow for Walsall, we all know Walsall needs uppers of -25 to get a dusting.

[tight isobar]

Ecm looking to loop pv across,  for eastern migrate?

Allowing height-atlantic some depth of push....??

[snowray]

10 minutes ago, Singularity said:

 

 

That Siberian High has been trending stronger with each new run today and the 12z is the second run in a row to have it take a nice long vacation toward Greenland or thereabouts, with increasingly frigid results for the UK.

The associated diving troughs into Europe fit well with the MJO analogues for a 6-7 traversal in Nina years, so this suggestion from GFS is very realistic in terms of the overall progression. The details on the other hand...! Past experience tells us all too strongly how much the models tend to be overly 'smooth' and 'clean' at such range, with not enough disturbances in the flow messing with the cold air transport.

 

Before all that we still have the cold weather looking likely for much of next week, and yes it is a shame how that low to the east has moved into a less helpful position on the 12z runs so far (there's a regional anomaly such as I cautioned about earlier!) but with such deep cold pooling around it, this need not affect the frontal boundary stall-slide process as much as the models may suggest. In this respect, UKMO's sudden progressiveness going from day 5 to day 6 is pretty odd to look at. In any case, that low to the east might well move a fair bit again anyway, so let's not go throwing toys about just yet... 

Kind of makes me laff that it was the Arpege and NAVGEM that were the only two still being rather progressive at T144 this morning, and I thought surely not?!

There you go, weather models for you, even our lesser brethren can surprise. 

[Chesil View]

Just now, Ramp said:

Those charts cannot be right as they show snow for Walsall, we all know Walsall needs uppers of -25 to get a dusting.

I can assure you they are right because they show south Dorset missing out completely on the snow as per usual.

[ICE COLD]

-10 850s into the east coast at t96 ?

[The Northern Ramper]

1 minute ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

I can assure you they are right because they show south Dorset missing out completely on the snow as per usual.

Move house?

[SMU]

cant Really argue with ECM 96

epic chart- -10c incoming Sunday lunch

[tight isobar]

And building blocks get going....

The transfer from eastern quadrant gains..

Via another mod-out..

Also the looping of polar v-feeding into scandi influx..destination...uk!!!

Edited January 31, 2018 by tight isobar

[frosty ground]

54 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Yes I did thank you. I can no longer edit my post.

However point till stands - nothing particularly noteworthy <240. 

Would be delighted to be proven wrong. 

What would class as noteworthy....?