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Model output discussion - mid January

Paul

By Paul
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inghams85 Community Regular

inghams85

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham
Posted

Well I hung myself out there to get whipped by calling for upgrades from yesterday's 12z and happy to say we're seeing this now. The models inability to sort out energy distribution until within the correct timeframe and bias to drip feeding tropical data means the 120-168 period will only upgrade further. Great start to the day

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
Posted (edited)

This is the GFS Ens forecast for the zonal wind-

551A6947-D6A9-4F5E-8C77-E517F531C72C.thumb.png.c583ae7a36998c8896371d30941504d2.png

The bottom ENS member ( green line ) touches -40ms which would be something akin to zonal easterlies across the mid latitudes- but most get close to the 0 M/S line -

The mean ( black line ) is now sub 0 M/S indicating a technical SSW but it’s still a while away -

Edited by Steve Murr
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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
Posted (edited)

WOW

look how sharp the newly updated JMA 78 is compared with the 84 00z!!!

127F0847-18EA-4021-8910-928F4190369A.thumb.png.059daa8f3d48f72d833b55a39da2cbc8.png1F287724-562C-4C3A-9293-415BC073A489.thumb.png.d69bbcd9ff603c64fb6ac1596b6dc84e.png

snow a lot further West- deep cold screaming SW into The Low Countries ..

look how much better the wedge is ...

Edited by Steve Murr
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Snowmadsam Aficionado

Snowmadsam

Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
Posted

Just a reminder folks to contain yourselfs...remember ONE run. Gotta have that trend. :)

Just trying to keep the feet on the ground :)

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted
4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

WOW

look how sharp the newly updated JMA 78 is compared with the 84 00z!!!

127F0847-18EA-4021-8910-928F4190369A.thumb.png.059daa8f3d48f72d833b55a39da2cbc8.png1F287724-562C-4C3A-9293-415BC073A489.thumb.png.d69bbcd9ff603c64fb6ac1596b6dc84e.png

snow a lot further West- deep cold screaming SW into The Low Countries ..

look how much better the wedge is ...

Jesus steve it just keeps upgrading!!i really do think theres gona be a significant snow event this weekend across the spine of the country!!on to the 12zs for a snowy feast lol!!

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Snowmadsam said:

Just a reminder folks to contain yourselfs...remember ONE run. Gotta have that trend. :)

Just trying to keep the feet on the ground :)

???!! The trend has been mounting day2 day sam-..

The gift is now the talk?

Some of us have stuck-steadfast as the evos toyed.

Its coming into both reliable/semi reliable..

And continues on an' upgrading route.

Edited by tight isobar
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Fourty Point Three Degrees Seasoned

Fourty Point Three Degrees

Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
Posted (edited)

GFS ens has cold conditions right out until mid Feb: 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49987&model=gfs&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw

Edited by - 40*C
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Snowmadsam Aficionado

Snowmadsam

Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
Posted
2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

???!! The trend gas been mounting day2 day sam-..

The gift is now the talk?

I know, but look what has happened before. I'm keeping my feet on the ground or I will start checking every model run again! haha!

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Deffo not getting too excited just now. An 'I'll believe it when I see it' stance is, I believe, always better for avoiding heart palpitations.:D

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Duane S. Veteran

Duane S.

Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
Posted
8 minutes ago, Snowmadsam said:

Just a reminder folks to contain yourselfs...remember ONE run. Gotta have that trend. :)

Just trying to keep the feet on the ground :)

Umm, yes and no.

Yes, nothing is certain yet.

No, this has been building for days.

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
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Posted (edited)

Quite a messy picture on Saturday into Sunday with regards to snow potential, as an upper trough extending SE disrupts and Atlantic frontal system moving in from the west stalls against the  cold block to the east and forms a surface low which sinks south along the boundary.

20180131_0638.PPVL89.thumb.png.f31fd53f0d99f10a313a5b8687308962.pngsatT850_21z.thumb.png.2a901077b56d90a183c8e08c979b3ca1.pngsatTH850_21z.thumb.png.62a5a5198cda00eaddb10ddc87e1a78f.png

Cold air pulled in on the north side of this low from both the east and northwest lifting out milder air at the surface - hence the occlusion of the frontal boundary and risk of snow. Snow most likely for northern, western and central hills, but could get to lower levels with evaporative and nocturnal cooling helping.

gfs_ptype_thick_uk2_14.thumb.png.b297bceca5323d0cfeed8150f5834fd1.pnggfs_ptype_thick_uk2_15.thumb.png.c7399d2aa3e3cfbe04695d7173cd6641.pnggfs_ptype_thick_uk2_16.thumb.png.6e4fbee799632d43c0a4ea6ded78634a.png

00z ECM has the frontal/trough disruption further west though, perhaps thinking resistance for eastward progression of fronts will be greater because of the cold block to the east.

ecm0125_nat_msl_t850_6urk_2018013100_084.thumb.jpg.7ae9cbed15ec0d07293bac8274e681ee.jpg

06z GFS shows a snow streamer for the SE on Monday morning, as those uppers drop from the east

monT850.thumb.png.95a73498360f20d39882e5ee5eab2a44.pnggfs_ptype_thick_uk2_22.thumb.png.f006af34f1370992ee7c4c152c9b1459.png

Poor Sidney ...

Squirrel-Meme.thumb.jpg.6be4413e70dae84cc7d9558143e8dfbd.jpg

 

Edited by Nick F
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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted
Just now, s4lancia said:

Umm, yes and no.

Yes, nothing is certain yet.

No, this has been building for days.

And You've been all over it for days s4, fair play. :hi:

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Chris101 Aficionado

Chris101

Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
Posted
19 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

Well I hung myself out there to get whipped by calling for upgrades from yesterday's 12z and happy to say we're seeing this now. The models inability to sort out energy distribution until within the correct timeframe and bias to drip feeding tropical data means the 120-168 period will only upgrade further. Great start to the day

Still a way to go but yourself and Tight have done very well so far on this one,nearly the biggest heist of winter so far.

Top modelling:good:

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Jemma Croton Aficionado

Jemma Croton

Posted
  • Location: Swindon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Always Snow.
  • Location: Swindon
Posted
16 minutes ago, Snowmadsam said:

Just a reminder folks to contain yourselfs...remember ONE run. Gotta have that trend. :)

Just trying to keep the feet on the ground :)

We’ve had a solid 24hr + of upgrades though. It’s pretty fair to say this is trending

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted

The classic example of a cold UK chart even with a raging vortex over Canada

gfsnh-0-108.png?6  gfsnh-1-108.png?6

I do kind of wonder how I've missed this - when I get a minute I'll go back through the recent charts and see if there were signs I missed, or if it was the models (UKMO excepted) that missed it.

The 6th/7th need serious flagging for snow - when a front gets squeezed by cold left and right like this, big risk

gfs-1-156.png?6

 

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TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
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Posted

Must say considering I have only been home a few days following a spell in intensive care, I am finding the output very pleasing and healing at the same time.

Can someone bring me up to speed though. When was the potential E,ly first modelled and by which computer model.

I won't be contributing much to this thread as im still very weak. Just enjoying the contributions from others especially Steve M who is equally obsessive about E,lys as I am.:yahoo:

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

And You've been all over it for days s4, fair play. :hi:

Yep fair play to a few posters for sticking to there guns . Unlike me yesterday who posted that it won't switch back (naught step for me ). The output this morning has been amazing , I'm still in shock that they have flipped . The ECM is a stonking run . Look at these uppers especially for IMBY . Lovely jubbly ?. 

IMG_1150.PNG

IMG_1151.PNG

IMG_1152.PNG

IMG_1153.PNG

IMG_1154.PNG

IMG_1155.PNG

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
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Posted
2 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Can someone bring me up to speed though. When was the potential E,ly first modelled and by which computer model.

Was UKMO that first picked up the blocking and Ely, then EC, then finally GFS.

Hope you make a quick recovery :)

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snowfish1 Aficionado

snowfish1

Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Must say considering I have only been home a few days following a spell in intensive care, I am finding the output very pleasing and healing at the same time.

Can someone bring me up to speed though. When was the potential E,ly first modelled and by which computer model.

I won't be contributing much to this thread as im still very weak. Just enjoying the contributions from others especially Steve M who is equally obsessive about E,lys as I am.:yahoo:

Teits 

wishing you a speedy recovery and I believe it was the UKMO

Edited by snowfish1
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

Technical SSW with daughter vortices spread far and wide on 6z, 1mb charts the best ive ever seen, not just an SSW though, one which would ultimately bring the real cold our way.

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*Stormforce~beka* Maestro

*Stormforce~beka*

Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
Posted
1 hour ago, snowfish1 said:

I've got several names of psychotherapists

And i have the Valium! (Nearly said Viagra then!! :-o)

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Chesil View Accomplished

Chesil View

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Posted

Wishing you all the bestTeits. Hopefully some nice wintry weather to speed your recovery.

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted
12 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Must say considering I have only been home a few days following a spell in intensive care, I am finding the output very pleasing and healing at the same time.

Can someone bring me up to speed though. When was the potential E,ly first modelled and by which computer model.

I won't be contributing much to this thread as im still very weak. Just enjoying the contributions from others especially Steve M who is equally obsessive about E,lys as I am.:yahoo:

IMO, the UKMO was the only one that gave a reasonable impression this was coming. ECM ensembles/GEFS gave hints but just looked like the usual FI noise - until today!

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

Just to bring a bit of balance to this place just take a look at latest navgem and see how all of it could go wrong just like that for us!!horrible 06z navgem!!!please just do one!!

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