Model output discussion - mid January

[Daniel*]

15 minutes ago, Nick F said:

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm

T+120 like the UKMO raw. Cold coming in from NE behind low sinking over Holland.

Happy with that wintry showers for us eastern lot who have not seen much at all. 

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Looks promising but that blasted Atlantic jet.  If it wasn't so strong we would be in an easterly dreamland. Hats off to UKMO too. Roll on the 00z upgrades. 

[Bruegelian]

This has been a strange winter - the snow back in Dec happened without much blocking, and the models are going for something similar now - this winter we seem to have had less problems with HP to south. 

But really, we need to be reassured that the blasted ridge/trough pattern over North America that fires up jet, won't be around forever!

Edited January 30, 2018 by Bruegelian

[feb1991blizzard]

Ext eps are pretty garbage but I have accepted that now and I'm more interested in what they are showing up top to be honest.

 

[Ice Day]

Having a quick flick through the ensembles at 168 (day 7) and it's interesting to note that around 80% of them have at least -8 uppers across some part of the UK, infact there's several -10's and even a -12 in the SE.  I have't looked at the earlier ensembles but this seems pretty solid for a day 7 set.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

GEFS 18z are quite a change though and looking very good, trough digging much further south, runners into the base of the trough - a @bluearmy special would be a possibility but then Atlantic height rises as well.

[Ice Day]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS 18z are quite a change though and looking very good, trough digging much further south, runners into the base of the trough - a @bluearmy special would be a possibility but then Atlantic height rises as well.

Yes, looking pretty dandy to me!

[Snowman.]

P19 is what you want. Azores high re-amplifies out west and sends a slider straight through the UK giving the west a large snow event. 

There are a few beginning to do the above but don't have as much luck due to having a weaker high at the beginning. Something to look for.

 

Edited January 30, 2018 by SN0WM4N

[Duane S.]

On 27/01/2018 at 07:55, s4lancia said:

It never fails to amaze me. Time and time again people expecting one great run to follow the next. That would be nice but also a bit boring if it worked like that. No trends emerging, just models trying to reflect an increasingly active Pacific. The jam will continue unabated, the next few days and weeks this place won’t be for the faint hearted.

I see it like this, and it has been consistently showing for about a week now. First window of opportunity around the 4th. Split opinion, not favouring the quicker colder option (currently).

Route 1...

Route 2...

Personally I think route2 is still a bit early, but both are on the table. Thereafter, and assuming we don’t go down the route2 quicker onset route, the next window of opportunity emerges not longer afterwards. With the background signals as they are, we will likely get more than one opportunity throughout February so try not to be too dispondant when initially we just miss out.

In my opinion, a fairly major cold spell fro Europe is coming in February, that may or may not include us. 

Well, it may have drifted east a bit but the basic premise of ridging helping draw in continental air around the 4th remains a viable option for us.

Also, if the models are underestimating the ramifications of the amplification in the Pacific, we could be just at the start of the upgrade journey. Interesting charts ahead...

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Certainly no sustained mild in the offing

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, RAIN RAIN RAIN said:

Certainly no sustained mild in the offing

Talking about sustained mild I don’t see any real appetite for mild weather. The ensembles above show a sustained cold signal if anything. Cold can be subjective to people, but certainly no SW’ly vermin. 

[JBMWeatherForever]

We may yet snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Having just looked at the output for the first time in more than a day, I am now quite upbeat from a cold perspective. That Scandinavian high is looking stronger again, and we maybe about to go into a cold spell at short notice. Now wouldn't that be a nice change ?

Edited January 31, 2018 by JBMWeatherForever

[Weather-history]

Getting interesting and within the 144hrs period

Edited January 31, 2018 by Weather-history

[That ECM]

This will be of interest for many in the east/se. T96/t120 not miles out. Exact track to be finalised but interesting none the less.

[That ECM]

T144 ukmo & gfs the heights in the ne are different and therefore if ukmo is on the right lines the gfs past this time is not worth considering to much. Liking the ukmo chart doesn't mean it's right tho. Upto t120/t144 much to be interested in. From there it will depend on the heights to our ne. 

[Tracy Flick]

Not much light will be escaping from that giant circular monstrosity. 

As for blighty's backyard: 

A general westerly flow with an occasional northerly component will probably mean slush and early-morning ice could be a theme for many over next 2-ish weeks.  Roll on spring, I've had enough.

[feb1991blizzard]

CORKING GEFS ALERT!

Some GEFS members trop output look to be already being influenced by events in the strat.

 

 

 

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

CORKING GEFS ALERT!

Some GEFS members trop output look to be already being influenced by events in the strat.

 

 

 

Indeed, over half of them. A growing trend. Hoping ukmo is the way forward.

[Seasonality]

Beautiful UKMO 144h this morning. Cold from the East and cold from the West converging on the UK. The Met have been rock solid in this prognosis and even 120h, which is approaching the reliable looks cold too. Still room for it to go titticus verticus but looking better!

[Seasonality]

2 hours ago, JBMWeatherForever said:

We may yet snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Having just looked at the output for the first time in more than a day, I am now quite upbeat from a cold perspective. That Scandinavian high is looking stronger again, and we maybe about to go into a cold spell at short notice. Now wouldn't that be a nice change ?

You could be onto something. The best ones sometimes appear in this way. Just look at the current UKMO output.

[Duane S.]

GEFS P7 shows what we are looking for after the initial ridge, that energy sliding SE at around D7 to our SW. Get both of those under our belts and the cold, with potential sub-M4 snow, is locked in...

N

 

And it’s worth noting, right now we have a scenario where the Azores is gearing up to be friend, not foe.

Edited January 31, 2018 by s4lancia

[That ECM]

Ecm wants to play as well

Edited January 31, 2018 by That ECM

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Cold to our east cold to our west cold to our north, even in later runs there is cold to our south and over us. What could possibly go wrong 

Great viewing this morning even the GFS is okay ish

Edited January 31, 2018 by Surrey

[bluearmy]

28 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

GEFS P7 shows what we are looking for after the initial ridge, that energy sliding SE at around D7 to our SW. Get both of those under our belts and the cold, with potential sub-M4 snow, is locked in...

N

 

And it’s worth noting, right now we have a scenario where the Azores is gearing up to be friend, not foe.

Seeing that second trough disrupt has got my attention! We may get a strong enough wedge after all. 

The point being that if we keep the cold close by (and over us for that matter), the Atlantic onslaught may have to be nw/se into this cold air and we know the Atlantic air will be cold sourced. Quite a different background to a couple weeks ago where Europe wasn’t cold. 

Edited January 31, 2018 by bluearmy

[Ice Day]

Those uppers at 120 

Those uppers at 144 

Those uppers at 168 

Superb set of overnight runs....damn you work!!!  See you all after the12z's, hopefully some more upgrades on the way?