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Model output discussion - mid January


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

The Canada model is interesting on the face of it, it looked snowy. I think we could squeeze out a cheeky snow event on 3rd that is relatively short timeframe as ‘energy’ goes se of us.

CB454450-6962-415D-8472-E72E7E61759D.thumb.png.885b565c023eacd5a4b7414f45228aac.png96CD716D-4E3E-4630-BBFE-1568FC47D8D7.thumb.png.bceb3a715bbef81f909e48604a60f4f9.png

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

IKON now finished to 120 & has the -8c line just off the east coast @120... :)

Steve more amplification around iceland 54 hours on 18z!!every little helps!!

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry, 102m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow or Heat
  • Location: Coventry, 102m asl
3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

The Canada model is interesting on the face of it, it looked snowy. I think we could squeeze out a cheeky snow event on 3rd that is relatively short timeframe as ‘energy’ goes se of us.

CB454450-6962-415D-8472-E72E7E61759D.thumb.png.885b565c023eacd5a4b7414f45228aac.png96CD716D-4E3E-4630-BBFE-1568FC47D8D7.thumb.png.bceb3a715bbef81f909e48604a60f4f9.png

I don't think this set up could deliver anything apart from cold rain, except north west Scotland, .

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

It will be touch and go this weekend and into next week as regards to this trough disruption and more and more models are picking this up

and if it goes t*ts up,then sydney will be kicking is nuts about instead of burying them:rofl:

squirrel-playing-soccer.gif

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
7 hours ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

I get where you're coming from Blue but if their own extended models  like Mogreps 15 are showing it  plus what they consider a consistent and significant number of ECM ensembles why would they go against their own model if thats what its showing.  Models can change of course but at the moment we don't know which one is on the money. 

Judging by the N24 10 dayer they are now smelling the coffee

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
5 minutes ago, sawan said:

I don't think this set up could deliver anything apart from cold rain, except north west Scotland, .

I wouldn't bet on that right now:)

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Posted
  • Location: Heathfield, E Sussex 157m asl
  • Location: Heathfield, E Sussex 157m asl

BBC week ahead 9.55pm--Scandanavian high less likely now. More of what we have had--High/Low/High Low etc

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The trough disruption has backed west by a couple of hundred miles west at 102,was over S Scandi on the 12z and is now west of Denmark

gfs-0-102.png?18gfs-0-108.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
46 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

But if you are of that view, when there is zonal dross within the D10 period on every suite, do you look further?

Yes but not with any sense of belief. Until a change has cross model agreement at seven days or less its not worth the pixelspace on a screen and even then at seven days its only possibilty at 96 its a probability only at T0 is itthe a certainty.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
11 minutes ago, sawan said:

I don't think this set up could deliver anything apart from cold rain, except north west Scotland, .

I wouldn’t be so sure about that a few frames later some back edge snow on this I’d presume for the east. 

FB379594-12D1-43EE-9914-4D9D7C3ECFA3.thumb.png.bc79335c0b735f91ffe22d58957570b9.pngCD35D922-0C55-45ED-909C-BED5634B34B7.thumb.png.cbee9c126c6e554b66a3cc9b9e1c1162.png

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

I really can't believe some still watch the n24 forecasts. They are often 12 to  24 hours behind the game.  This forum offers far more knowledge with regards to the upcoming weather. 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The trough disruption has backed west by a couple of hundred miles west at 102,was over S Scandi on the 12z and is now west of Denmark

gfs-0-102.png?18gfs-0-108.png?12

Looking better, better heights and placement to Scandi too & lower heights in med.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The gfs as stopped at 108

come on!,i am up at 5am:rofl:

ok,it's thinking about giving us that easterly:D

gfsnh-0-114.png?18

at 126,Scandy developing:)

gfsnh-0-126.png?18

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Just now, bluearmy said:

Judging by the N24 10 dayer they are now smelling the coffee

fair enough Blue their model has changed direction.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
3 minutes ago, on the coast said:

Never seen such a cold attack from the West like this before. Of course will probably change.

 

forgot to look at 850's

warm sector canceled out at 150

gfsnh-1-150.png?18

band of snow moving down the country from 144.

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Some exeptional output today.

And tommorow will be analysis/cross point day i feel.

Cold banging the drum into the uk.

, no matter-your preference of direction.

And certainly looks like snow maybe widspread into feb!?..

Sleep tight....

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Hucknall, Nottingham 100m (328ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Blizzards, Hoarfrost, Frost and Extremes
  • Location: Hucknall, Nottingham 100m (328ft) ASL

Unless both the BBC and ITV have access to some much better models I wouldn’t worry about what they are currently reporting. In my experience they won’t jump on board the cold train until much closer to the time, more likely to see them going for the current model output from Thursday onwards I would say if it’s still there and hasn’t  suddenly gone the way of the pear :sorry: :D

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Just looking past 144 hrs

i know it's going into the realms,BUT would we see another trough disrupt against the block?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Just looking past 144 hrs

i know it's going into the realms,BUT would we see another trough disrupt against the block?

Well when meteociel get their act together in a minute - you'll find out!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
4 minutes ago, on the coast said:

Big cold coming by the looks. UKMO will be interesting Sunday onwards.

Evening! Where is the Big cold coming? And why will the UKMO be interesting from Sunday onwards?   Confused:cc_confused:

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