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Model output discussion - mid January


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Unless something really bizarre happens with the MJO than that's due to hit phase 7 at high amplitude in just two days time.

The displaced Azores high with the jet tracking se into the UK seems likely but of course the issue is whether this allows a further attempt at an easterly if the pattern backs west or whether its more a nw influenced outcome.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

^^ review the 10mb wind !

Haven't got a link bookmarked amywhere.

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Posted
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl
  • Weather Preferences: See if you can guess
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl

I know it's rare for us to get cold when there is a strong polar vortex over NE Canada, but didn't it actually help us in Feb 1991, with vigorous LP over Greenland helping to "pump up" a Scandi high?  

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
6 minutes ago, Bruegelian said:

I know it's rare for us to get cold when there is a strong polar vortex over NE Canada, but didn't it actually help us in Feb 1991, with vigorous LP over Greenland helping to "pump up" a Scandi high?  

seems to have gotten into a pattern though in recent years that if the north americans and Canada on the east coast get a pasting and really low temps we get a washout - but something different is going on this year, could be a very good Feb/March

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Ecm looks briliant at 96 hours!elongates the low north to south across the uk!!

Yes-good elongation and reasonably in line with others @96..

No need for panic over the 850s either...should soon gain...

@144.

ECM0-96.gif

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Could be cold in the NE on the ECM little wind cold uppers.

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Posted
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK

Looking good. Can I ask a question why has ITV got mild temps for the weekend? Are they using another model or just being conservative with the outcome? 

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

UKMO has been leading the way over the last few days with tonight's ECM following, of course we need verification for any model to be correct, but as of tonight UKMO looks to have called things regarding Scandi 'wedges'. Can we build a proper high from this point, quite possibly!

IMG_3275.thumb.PNG.ec59dc2e183ae949b579827bc68a7a64.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

3-mains @144..

Ukmo-ecm-gfs..

Its quite notable the gfs is the catch up mod....

As we begin some sort of model agree.

Great stuff.

gfs-1-144.png

UW144-7.gif

ECM0-144 (2).gif

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

Wedge being squeezed at 144, but vertical WAA could well build the high, though it may be to Far East?

IMG_3276.thumb.PNG.59403988eca3c881bbf9caf952155729.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

ECH1-120.GIF?30-0   ECH1-144.GIF?30-0   ECH1-168.GIF?30-0

I think the thought process here is that we are desperately unlucky if things play out like this, to have such a large area of very low heights to our north west yet at the same time have arctic heights across most of the other parts of the arctic circle which mean any heights towards Scandinavia get pulled away allowing those low heights to phase with the very cold air to our east. Still it is a cold set up with cold air being pushed well south intensifying the PM shot from the north west, still we are so close to a bitterly cold easterly if that cold pool could push south west toward SW Europe before the next set of Atlantic fronts approach.

I would add that a more more northerly than north easterly trajectory on the Azores high in the earlier times frames then that cold air to our east would surge our way like some the classic easterlies of times gone by, it really is that close.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Surely we are not going to miss out on this Easterly,doesn’t look promising at T144 hopefully things will improve as the Easterly moves into the more reliable timeframe in the model output.

 

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Going to be keeping a close eye the low that’s just east of the US on day 6; currently it’s being fired across the N Atlantic as if there was no forcing towards less momentum but if we see underestimated MT impacts then the track of that system could change substantially. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire

I don't know how many times this winter the phrase fascinating model watching has been used yet here we are at the end of Jan with precious little to show for it, and for many nothing at all to show for it. The output for the next week or so looks to again deliver very little unless your up a mountain or in one or two  of the more favoured areas if your lucky. For the rest some sleety wet snow if your lucky and a few frosts.

Here's hoping to the mid month strat induced vortex split and MJO phase 8 assist to lead us into a potent last couple of weeks of winter and hopefully something memorable to take from winter 17/18.

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

Decent set of 12z runs. A consensus of sorts with better heights towards Scandinavia. Anything after that really is fantasy. Either way interest is growing  and possibility of snow in the next week or so. Could be worse 

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

Been a long time since I have seen a beauty of an uppers chart and I don`t care if it comes off or not, That is just lovely...

ECM0-168.GIF

 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
11 minutes ago, comet said:

I don't know how many times this winter the phrase fascinating model watching has been used yet here we are at the end of Jan with precious little to show for it, and for many nothing at all to show for it. The output for the next week or so looks to again deliver very little unless your up a mountain or in one or two  of the more favoured areas if your lucky. For the rest some sleety wet snow if your lucky and a few frosts.

Here's hoping to the mid month strat induced vortex split and MJO phase 8 assist to lead us into a potent last couple of weeks of winter and hopefully something memorable to take from winter 17/18.

Rather odd and misleading?

Even the disinterested GFS in terms of an easterly has -10C uppers covering much of the country all precip would fall as snow pretty much anywhere. UKMO continues to be very good and steadfast. EC rather good but not as good as UKMO all in all this suggests to me cold and snow ? is coming not silly cold, how long who knows. 

4DD68B19-7843-446E-9DF1-6D324A474B9D.thumb.png.3020a97693863129087fc3561f7bd54a.png

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