Model output discussion - mid January

[karlos1983]

4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Noooo   There is always one 

[KTtom]

Any idea when the ecm 46 comes out? ...or was it that bad no-one is mentioning it? 

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Some sort of Easterly is appearing in the  SEMI RELIABLE timeframe now it appears  from especially ukmo and jma,and ecm not far behind.Gfs just seems to flip flop every 6 hours at the moment ,so can’t make much sense of it at the moment

yet some members say there is NO sign of any Easterly ,ok,so what models are you looking at then to come to that conclusion 

Thats right from an actual easterly to a low slipping south brininging with it token 24 hour easterly flow.

More than happy to let people chase phantoms but maybe they shouldn't do it at thoe cost of asking who cares and thats rubbish for me type post that have been made today.

 

[weirpig]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

One of the three phrases at the start of the winter i was dreading people quoting. And karlos you have only gone and said it . Nevermind the jma shows potential.  Whoops 

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

One of the three phrases at the start of the winter i was dreading people quoting. And karlos you have only gone and said it . Nevermind the jma shows potential.  Whoops 

Oh well I’ll claim that as a minor victory then 

but I have heard the likes of Ian F refer to it... ?‍♂️

Ps it’s better than winters over lol

Edited January 29, 2018 by karlos1983

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Any idea when the ecm 46 comes out? ...or was it that bad no-one is mentioning it? 

we get it around 2209 pm.

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

we get it around 2209 pm.

That's all well and good Feb. But have you the exact time please 

[Johnp]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

we get it around 2209 pm.

I think you've been model watching too long ?

[bobbydog]

30 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

That is not a summary a Dorseteer wants to hear... translates to cold rain ???

on the plus side, Tesco are doing a 21 pack of Kit-Kats for £2   

[mb018538]

ECM looks most likely to me, I never really bought into the easterly idea with so much energy pushing from west to east. Hoping for something to emerge from the ashes, but expecting a gradual agreement between models on a fairly flat evolution. Let’s see what the 00z say.

[karlos1983]

Hmm not much on offer from the ECM mean either... JMA looks good though 

[damianslaw]

Some fine margins in the outputs today; changeable short term - something drier for a time as we end the week and move into next week, and generally trending quite chilly - but nothing especially cold for what is on average the coldest part of the year. Heights are set to build strongly over scandi once the trough drops through the N Sea, but we also have a rampant PV to our NW feeding very cold air into the N atlantic and causing a tight thermal gradient - all the forcing is therefore coming from that feature, so perhaps no surprise to see the models quickly sinking the ridge to our east into a less favourable position for any easterly incursion; but if we maintain strong heights to our SW as well, every chance we could see a very deep dig of the atlantic trough spilling down the frigid arctic air as we move through the middle of the month with further ridge development over scandi - and by then perhaps the PV will be squeezing itself out naturally as the winter season draws on. All eyes on jetstream profile; and upstream signals.

Its turning into one of those winters that never really settles into a groove; very changeable and more seasonal with alternating cold and mild, compared to recent either very wet predominantly mild zonal ones, or dry and never especially cold like last year.  

 

[carinthian]

This latest extended chart from UKMO at 168t looks very similar to what JN model is showing. So UKMO must be still backing a block to the NE. Of course this is very different to what ECM is currently indicating in its run tonight, no easterly from them this time ! Would be good if the Exeter boys come out winners again on this one  ( RE: ECM last failed easterly, that UKMO never really got on board with ).

[Scandinavian High.]

54 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Some sort of Easterly is appearing in the  SEMI RELIABLE timeframe now it appears  from especially ukmo and jma,and ecm not far behind.Gfs just seems to flip flop every 6 hours at the moment ,so can’t make much sense of it at the moment

yet some members say there is NO sign of any Easterly ,ok,so what models are you looking at then to come to that conclusion 

Great post sleety..

[Bottled Snow]

29 minutes ago, carinthian said:

This latest extended chart from UKMO at 168t looks very similar to what JN model is showing. So UKMO must be still backing a block to the NE. Of course this is very different to what ECM is currently indicating in its run tonight, no easterly from them this time ! Would be good if the Exeter boys come out winners again on this one  ( RE: ECM last failed easterly, that UKMO never really got on board with ).

Pity we cannot see European synoptic  on ukmo chart. However from what we can see it is clear that UK and Ireland is under an easterly flow.  Coupled with JMA run I would not write off some sort of easterly just yet....yes an outside chance but still a possibiliy it seems...would give it another day or two before writing anything off 

[feb1991blizzard]

I think we can all guess how poor the ext EPS are for cold given no one has posted anything unless there is so much diversity that they don't offer any steer of course.

[Daniel*]

2017 was the hottest year on record without El Niño even without it was in the top three ever recorded every continent minus Antarctica no data available, record warm departures from norm.

I fear for what the future will bring, no doubt this is having a lasting impact and messing up ‘order’. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Avery still mentioned the Easterly but prefers the high close to the west and dry (one of those crappy circular ones that never ridge north and all they do is waste time by the sounds of it)

[pegg24]

12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Avery still mentioned the Easterly but prefers the high close to the west and dry (one of those crappy circular ones that never ridge north and all they do is waste time by the sounds of it)

Sound s about right and all the cold air will end up in the med again Spain Greece.

[winterof79]

Lots of posters who profess to knowing what will happen nowadays on this thread which makes for hard reading.

Here is as far as I go 144z METO 12Z

168Z 

Looks like the low heights over Genoa are moved to the Iberia region pulling in an easterly flow of sorts.Probably wrong and will change but better saying what it shows.

Which incidently is what JMA tries to do

144z

168z

Edited January 29, 2018 by winterof79

[Singularity]

With the sheer magnitude of the change in base state that looks to be unfolding, I do expect the models to struggle a great deal with the balance of play between ridges heading poleward and the vortex attempting to take on a highly efficient and therefore particularly intense state.

Even with that in mind, though, the ECM 12z turned out pretty strange. Best fit to the 8-10 day outcome that I can find for forcing analogues is January phase 6 MJO under neutral conditions - but days 8-10 are a week into Feb, for which all of the MJO composite ENSO flavours contradict the idea of a trough digging through the UK from the northwest. It's hard to see such a strong MJO event being overridden, so what gives...? Any input on this much appreciated 

[summer blizzard]

8 minutes ago, Singularity said:

With the sheer magnitude of the change in base state that looks to be unfolding, I do expect the models to struggle a great deal with the balance of play between ridges heading poleward and the vortex attempting to take on a highly efficient and therefore particularly intense state.

Even with that in mind, though, the ECM 12z turned out pretty strange. Best fit to the 8-10 day outcome that I can find for forcing analogues is January phase 6 MJO under neutral conditions - but days 8-10 are a week into Feb, for which all of the MJO composite ENSO flavours contradict the idea of a trough digging through the UK from the northwest. It's hard to see such a strong MJO event being overridden, so what gives...? Any input on this much appreciated 

Agreed. Although phase 6 is where most of the guidance is at for the next 10 days or so (plus a little lag) and suggests things will be a bit messy but with the Azores out west, if the GFS is correct and we do reach phase 7 then it will be hard to avoid some kind of ridging over Scandinavia. 

[ICE COLD]

The big 3 for Friday midday -

Gfs 

ECM

UKMO

[ICE COLD]

Here comes one of your north Westlys @frosty ground . ?

Edited January 29, 2018 by ICE COLD

[feb1991blizzard]