Model output discussion - mid January

[Duane S.]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I wouldn't completely rule it out but I would now rule it out within any sort of reliable timeframe - forget it within 192 but theres no reason to say it wont start to re-appear post 300, as the next atlantic ridge ridges up towards Greenland and then topples.

I am refering specifcally to that timeframe though.

OK. Personally I don't see think we will see it, but 3 those members (and at least another 3 just missed going that way) are consistent with what other ones have been showing for many days, for that timeframe.

I will be interested to see if it eventually gets completely dropped or gathers some legs over the coming days.

[mulzy]

FWIW, ECM is similar to UKMO at day 4.

Edited January 29, 2018 by mulzy

[BlackburnChris]

10 minutes ago, mulzy said:

FWIW, ECM is similar to UKMO at day 4.

Almost exact

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

55 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Though that interesting phase of mid atlantic chill seems to have faded. We now have an SST pattern supportive of the +NAO winter we are having with warmer than average temperatures to our SW helping sustain the azores high. Low AAM at the equator also serving to strengthen sub tropical ridges. End result is a very tough pattern to break out of. We have an uptick in positive forcings at the moment (torques aligning with MJO progress) but nothing suggesting a solid impact in the near future to build a block in the right place... What about Mid February? Cant rule anything out in the world of weather, but the return of strong north American cold will do nothing to weaken north atlantic cyclogenisis and it will need to be one mighty big MJO cycle to give sufficient westerly additions at the equator to reduce atmospheric momentum at high latitudes significantly. Vortex developments also looking less and less helpful. I think I suggested a mid lat block was the best we might get out of the current pacific spike, and nothing yet to change that interpretation.

We are all still glued to developments and there is always a chance of a sudden change - but the window for any realistic chances of significant and sustained continental cold with snow is steadily closing. Some really interesting tweets out there today and yesterday about the season in general - I'll put something together on the teleconnection thread later for viewing and discussion.

 

Is this a "winter's over" post I see before me?

[frosty ground]

Looks like a north westerly in on the way

Then again that high just wont back west. Either way Easterly is dead. 

Edited January 29, 2018 by frosty ground

[Daniel*]

Just now, frosty ground said:

Looks like a north westerly in on the way

Seems like a standoff to me...

[mulzy]

4 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Looks like a north westerly in on the way

Then again that high just wont back west. Either way Easterly is dead. 

Too early to be writing off the Easterly.  It's still knife-edge territory. 

[Daniel*]

Very different from 00z one thing that is cold UK sort of wedged in the cold , interesting how ECM has moved more align with UKMO a Scandi high is not dead yet it does try.

[igloo]

looks like the easterly will just miss with all the energy going over the top and we could well get the dreaded south westerly in the latter stages 

[frosty ground]

4 minutes ago, igloo said:

looks like the easterly will just miss with all the energy going over the top and we could well get the dreaded south westerly in the latter stages 

Short lived cold spell easterly a billion miles away even the north westerlies are miles off. Not a great winter run

Edited January 29, 2018 by frosty ground

[frosty ground]

The trend away from Easterlies is very clear now from the GEFS.... the classic sine wave formation showing lows crossing the uk very prevalent. 

[SMU]

The UKMO presents the best run for cold tonight - although the JMA runs it close-

Interestingly as the GFS steps off the ‘wedge’ so the UKMO jumps on-

Difficult to see sustained cold however there’s enough interest especially in the UKMO to see if tomorrow it starts increasing more energy south east again post 144 ( not North east like the ECM )

S

[Johnp]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

The trend away from Easterlies is very clear now from the GEFS.... the classic sine wave formation showing lows crossing the uk very prevalent. 

Your hatred of easterlies is remarkable.

Did one freeze your nether regions in a previous life? ?

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

The trend away from Easterlies is very clear now from the GEFS.... the classic sine wave formation showing lows crossing the uk very prevalent. 

You have told us about 10 times tonight on this forum that the easterlies are dead . Yes we have had a day of not so good model runs but stop.banging on bout it . And N Westlys don't do anything for 95% off us it will just be cold rain ?

[karlos1983]

Sod it, I’m moving to Canada! 

I’ll get sleep, I’ll be less stressed and most importantly I’ll get snow. 

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, Johnp said:

Your hatred of easterlies is remarkable.

Did one freeze your nether regions in a previous life? ?

Love them some of the best snow falls come from them.

But there isn't one to be seen.

[igloo]

whats  going on the PV is gaining strength as the season goes on not the reverse  anybody got a time machine and we can go back to the 50s 

[karlos1983]

Just to confirm, big three at +96

no cross model agreement! No 2 models completely agree even with the upstream setup at +96. Still all options on the table.

oh and an EC update tonight...

[nick sussex]

It’s a bit of a mess with the outputs disagreeing but not without interest in terms of snow.

The PV blob over Greenland is reluctant to clear off but it’s likely any energy heading east will have a battle to clear the UK so snow along the boundary is possible.

The UKMO as SM mentioned is best of tonight’s outputs which is strange given it was least interested upto this point.

I think a proper easterly  is probably a long shot but snow certainly possible over the next ten days.

 

 

[karlos1983]

Just now, nick sussex said:

It’s a bit of a mess with the outputs disagreeing but not without interest in terms of snow.

The PV blob over Greenland is reluctant to clear off but it’s likely any energy heading east will have a battle to clear the UK so snow along the boundary is possible.

The UKMO as SM mentioned is best of tonight’s outputs which is strange given it was least interested upto this point.

I think a proper easterly  is probably a long shot but snow certainly possible over the next ten days.

 

 

That is not a summary a Dorseteer wants to hear... translates to cold rain ???

[blizzard81]

Even though I don't rate the model that much, the jma is a corker tonight. 

[karlos1983]

8 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Even though I don't rate the model that much, the jma is a corker tonight. 

Just goes to show an easterly is possible even with a strong looking Trop PV where it is!

JMA is regarded quite highly by MET O I believe 

Edited January 29, 2018 by karlos1983

[SLEETY]

Some sort of Easterly is appearing in the  SEMI RELIABLE timeframe now it appears  from especially ukmo and jma,and ecm not far behind.Gfs just seems to flip flop every 6 hours at the moment ,so can’t make much sense of it at the moment

yet some members say there is NO sign of any Easterly ,ok,so what models are you looking at then to come to that conclusion 

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Just goes to show an easterl is possible even with a strong looking Trop PV where it is!

JMA is regarded quite highly by MET O I believe 

Noooo   There is always one 

Edited January 29, 2018 by weirpig

[blizzard81]

Scandi highs are very hard for the models to pick out at medium range. They tend to pop out of nowhere at the 4 to 5 day range. I sense this may be beginning to happen with the models now. If this is correct then at least we won't have to wait long as momentum will build very quickly over the next 24 hours.