Model output discussion - mid January

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Unless I'm reading the charts wrong, the second cluster (45%) on the eps in deep FI (360hrs) looks similar to the GEFS mean around 150 hours earlier, one of those crap easterlies where they are dry because the PV has exerted too much forcing on the high and its sunk and its dry everywhere and the E'ly is only for the tiny bit of the SE of Britain.

The first cluster is garbage.

Feb if I'm honest that information given by Ian F is becoming a bit irritating, because I just can't see the Scandi High evolution coming off in the ensembles, except for a nano-second around D8. The UKMO, I suppose, is more interesting.

What bothers me is that the Glossea has a history of being right but also being delayed. If this ends up a case of a growing trend to the Scandi High as February progresses, I do fear another delayed spring coming up.

[bluearmy]

12 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Feb if I'm honest that information given by Ian F is becoming a bit irritating, because I just can't see the Scandi High evolution coming off in the ensembles, except for a nano-second around D8. The UKMO, I suppose, is more interesting.

What bothers me is that the Glossea has a history of being right but also being delayed. If this ends up a case of a growing trend to the Scandi High as February progresses, I do fear another delayed spring coming up.

Ian hasn’t tweeted anything today so that info is already a day old. The further outlook says to me that glosea and mogreps-15 show an easterly flow but how suppressed by the northern arm remains uncertain. 

I am also seeing a cold March developing !! Easter is April 6th. Snow showers guaranteed ! 

[Daniel*]

A lot of uncertainty the big 3 at T+144 UKMO definitely pick of the bunch that finger of +ve heights missing from all the other models and some trough disruption in the vicinity of the UK, it looks like a continental flow is definitely in the wings. A lot of energy is being thrown out to NW, the wedge is needed to neutralise that. 

[Devonshire]

30 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I am also seeing a cold March developing !! Easter is April 6th. Snow showers guaranteed ! 

I am not sure I will trust your weather predictions given that you fail to predict Easter accurately!!!

[bluearmy]

32 minutes ago, Devonshire said:

I am not sure I will trust your weather predictions given that you fail to predict Easter accurately!!!

??????

its a week before that isn’t it .....

even more likely to be snow showers ! 

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

A lot of uncertainty the big 3 at T+144 UKMO definitely pick of the bunch that finger of +ve heights missing from all the other models and some trough disruption in the vicinity of the UK, it looks like a continental flow is definitely in the wings. A lot of energy is being thrown out to NW, the wedge is needed to neutralise that. 

Incidentally, a small defined upper low over France was the largest eps cluster at day 6/7 so ukmo could be o to something....

[Singularity]

Early next week is heavily dependent on the behaviour of a LP system Fri-Sun that has been modelled with appalling inconsistency over the past few days so a lot of options do remain on the table.

[The Beast From The East]

Just wondering if anyone could tell me why the pub run quite often shows such extreme outputs like the one last night? It often does it only to be completely different come the following morning. It's obviously a common thing for it to be over the top with its extreme outputs and is why it's know as the pub run and often said that it's had to much to drink lol.    So is it because the data is programed differently or dare I say it that maybe it lacks some data? It never seems to happen in the other runs through the day, maybe small differences from run to run but the pub run is more bullish with more dramatic outcomes... 

 

Thanks anyone who can answer this.. ?

 

 

Edited January 29, 2018 by TheBeastFromTheEAST

[karlos1983]

Pretty big differences at +120 between the UKMO and GFS

[Daniel*]

Point taken GFS is notorious for overdoing widespread wintry element however there is more of a north of west flow colder presumably than the cold zonal flow we had which was more westerly.

[Daniel*]

UKMO largely sticking to its guns with wedge, much more sterile upstream compared to GFS..

[igloo]

well the GEM has inproved from this mornings run looks like its trying its best for hight  rising  to our NE it wouldn't surprise me if we had the david and goliath show and we all no the winner from that 

[karlos1983]

not quite sure what to make of UKMO at +144 to be honest 

Apart from it looks nothing like the GFS at the same time frame

 

Edited January 29, 2018 by karlos1983

[Daniel*]

Better what’s also very apparent is the Genoa Low I believe it’s called which was not there on 06z ! Actually was just not as quick, should slow down the progression... 

Edited January 29, 2018 by Daniel*

[mulzy]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

not quite sure what to make of UKMO at +144 to be honest 

Apart from it looks nothing like the GFS at the same time frame

 

UKMO miles better than GFS at day 6.

Edited January 29, 2018 by mulzy

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

not quite sure what to make of UKMO at +144 to be honest 

Apart from it looks nothing like the GFS at the same time frame

 

UKMO looks similar to this morning but obviously 12hrs on . And your right massive differences with GFS and so early on ?

[frosty ground]

Looks like another Cold North Westerly is on the way, once that ridge pulls back a bit.

 

 

[frosty ground]

UKM looks okay fora  spell of dry and chilly weather but the Atlantic is not far away from flattening the ridge, we can just hope the jet digs south east again to give us another shot at a North Westerly,

[frosty ground]

After a brief milder sector the very cold air is coming in from the north West, just need that high to back up a bit,

[Daniel*]

Just now, frosty ground said:

UKM looks okay fora  spell of dry and chilly weather but the Atlantic is not far away from flattening the ridge, we can just hope the jet digs south east again to give us another shot at a North Westerly,

Who cares about a north westerly? I’d say there’s a fine balance between easterlies and something less desirable. UKMO looks really quite good to me, some of the air originates from deepest darkest Siberia. It has a more prolonged look to it too.

[mulzy]

GFS a dire run.

Tantalising UKMO day 6.  I wonder what day 7 will show? - so many options on the table!!  Hopefully the Scnadi High can 'close out' with the SW/front approaching from the west sharpening up.  The winter killer (AZH) is a pain though...

Edited January 29, 2018 by mulzy

[mountain shadow]

Just now, Daniel* said:

Who cares about a north westerly? I’d say there’s a fine balance between easterlies and something less desirable. UKMO looks really quite good to me, some of the air originates from deepest darkest Siberia. It has a more prolonged look to it too.

Eh?

The UKMO shows a very brief burst of North Easterlies into Kent before the Atlantic piles over the top of the ridge. In what way does it have a prolonged look about it?

 

[Froze were the Days]

5 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

After a brief milder sector the very cold air is coming in from the north West, just need that high to back up a bit,

'very cold air' coming in from the north west?...as the majority of the UK could tell (other than northern uplands) after the last spell you don't get very cold from those situations. We had 7c for a couple of days in the south east.

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Eh?

The UKMO shows a very brief burst of North Easterlies into Kent before the Atlantic piles over the top of the ridge. In what way does it have a prolonged look about it?

 

Difference of interpretation might be wrong but that doesn’t look clear cut to me... 

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Who cares about a north westerly? I’d say there’s a fine balance between easterlies and something less desirable. UKMO looks really quite good to me, some of the air originates from deepest darkest Siberia. It has a more prolonged look to it too.

I do hence why Im posting about it...... Is that okay?

The uppers don't look that special at 120 and if the run follows this morning the 168 chart will have a high over the UK with the coldest air to the east,

The GFs has swept the very cold air away by day 8.

 Vs 

North Westerly more likely to verify (based on GFS 12z and GEFS 06z), just hope that high can back west a little,

Everyone seemed to ignore the very cold runs on the GEFS has been removed on the 06z run!