Model output discussion - mid January

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Too many people here get hung up by one run, the 12z will have a different outcome. when it gets too about 96hours then think its about correct give or take a few hundred miles etc, its just a trend at the minute. We all just want the trend to end up in our favour by 96hrs.

[Daniel*]

Very plausible evolution imo those -ve heights are crucial as MLB does not sink away I’ll fetch my coat.

[karlos1983]

Boaty McBoatface will be called in to clear a path through the Bay of Biscay at this rate!

 

[Daniel*]

22 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Thanks for spending the time on that Daniel but I really think it was last winter and when I say transient, it was just a few hours on the euro 4 one night! It may not show on the meteociel ncep archive! 

The point is that a short spell of sub -10c uppers is not indicative itself of anything particularly wintry. 

I find Euro4 uppers tend to be too cold unsure whether that is fact or fiction. I agree mid minus teens is where it’s noteworthy still I wouldn’t turn that down...

[Jason M]

10 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Despite the fact it’s not in the reliable timeframe and gfs flips about every 6 hours,so yes let’s write it off before it even exists 

I never write anything off. Just saying its unlikely and that I think the original easterly will go south (in fairness I mentioned this last night). With everything going north it looks improbable that the pattern will correct in our favor (clearly not 'impossible' though) What happens after this is anyone's guess.  

[frosty ground]

Now that's a Northerly 

I suspect all this easterly nonsense  will soon be put to bed and once the Mid lat high breaks up we will get a pretty decent cold spell from the north

[Ahmet Can Alanç]

 

 

Hello! I like snow like you. I follow through Turkey.

Edited January 29, 2018 by Ahmet Can Alanç

[Daniel*]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Boaty McBoatface will be called in to clear a path through the Bay of Biscay at this rate!

 

What draws my eyes is them cold uppers in North Algeria and Morocco small parcel of -8C perhaps that’s over a mountainous region but still unusually cold.

Edited January 29, 2018 by Daniel*

[Daniel*]

2 incidences of -40C uppers they’ve become very uncommon on GFS 06z covering modest sized areas. 

[Sky Full]

Irrespective of what we might expect beyond 10 days in deep FI the model ops are showing a trend towards a colder snap almost in the reliable range at +168h (5th February)....

ECM         

GFS         

GEM        

And the UKMO is going in the right direction at +144h (4th February)....

    

Clearly there is no overall agreement yet and this is no headline grabber - it may not get the Daily Express excited but it would make a change from the relatively mild conditions we are currently experiencing.  From my point of view in particular the GFS theme might bring some drier days too - would be very welcome round these parts!

Anyway, it is a possible trend which offers some potential!  

 

Edited January 29, 2018 by Sky Full
.

[Daniel*]

Ignore

Edited January 29, 2018 by Daniel*

[karlos1983]

As expected really, the 06z has cleared nothing up, other than it looks very likely to turn colder form next week, how cold and for how long remains to be seen.

Edited January 29, 2018 by karlos1983

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

As expected really, the 06z has cleared nothing up.

Yes- huge scatter!!.

 

And no decipher still of any correct route!!!

ignore the screenshot !!!!

Edited January 29, 2018 by tight isobar

[frosty ground]

Vs 

The 06z GEFS has cleared the board of the very cold easterlies blink and you miss it type output, but what it has done is opened the door to the North West, with the majority of runs showing several cold shot from the north west over the next 10 days.

As a result the mean has gone up a few degrees but that's to be expected.

Edited January 29, 2018 by frosty ground

[Duane S.]

Yep, nothing whatsoever cleared up. Won't be for a while yet either!

P2 shows the alternative route and that it is still not to be discounted. The knife-edge tipping point remains IMO. The differences start upstream at just +72...

This leads onto that amplification later on Sunday (now at D6)...

 

That leads into this...

 

Everything else forecast beyond of little use

 

[Snowman.]

UKMO is looking really good although it's hard to put faith in any output seeing home much they've chopped and changed.

[doctor32]

So the signals continue for a high to move in over the uk as we head through Feb, this waxing and waning near the uk.

Where this ends up is crucial for any cold, i personally think an eastery that effects most the uk is unlikely at the moment.

More likely is brief eastery flow for some, likewise more of an atlantic flow for others, and some northery bursts too.

The latter more favourable, as the high stays more to the west as it meanders around.

[Chesil View]

06 Gfs flatters to decieve mid to long range. If you look at in in 24 steps you can see just glancing blows of real cold All beyond the reliable and very mu h subject to change of course.

[feb1991blizzard]

If ever we needed a stonking (not just a decent) EC46 then its today.

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If ever we needed a stonking (not just a decent) EC46 then its today.

Based on the eps from the 00z, I wouldn’t be holding my breath. Certainly not expecting any signal to firm up 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Based on the eps from the 00z, I wouldn’t be holding my breath. Certainly not expecting any signal to firm up 

Yes they haven't been looking as good as I thought they might after Ian Fergusson's tweet.

[feb1991blizzard]

Unless I'm reading the charts wrong, the second cluster (45%) on the eps in deep FI (360hrs) looks similar to the GEFS mean around 150 hours earlier, one of those crap easterlies where they are dry because the PV has exerted too much forcing on the high and its sunk and its dry everywhere and the E'ly is only for the tiny bit of the SE of Britain.

The first cluster is garbage.

Edited January 29, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[Darkcloud]

I'm confused....we have a potential (but unlikely) easterly in the offing, some of the lowest uppers I've seen all winter and some intriguing model output yet no sign of Frosty!? Somethings not right!!

[frosty ground]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If ever we needed a stonking (not just a decent) EC46 then its today.

Because we all know its going to verify and not change by Friday. 

[karlos1983]

Presumably the disappearance of the Warming event at 10hpa is down to the fact that sustained Scandi Heights are not looking the form horse anymore?  But could re-emerge if things revert back! 

 

 

Edited January 29, 2018 by karlos1983