Model output discussion - mid January

[Froze were the Days]

High pressure too the west becoming to much of a player?...seems like the really cold air stays away from these shores on the op runs.

Edited January 29, 2018 by Froze were the Days

[SLEETY]

Too far out to know what’s going to happen still.At least the gfs ensembles have trended colder again,which is encouraging.

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

17 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Decent ooz ens this morn....

Tighter clustering begining to appear..

Ops -as before-..will wobble with height align with hem state,-and decipher of placement.

All very encouriging!!

 

 

london suite

I am surprised at how cold those ens are this morning.

Not often you get multiple runs hitting the -10 to -15 range?  Something is brewing in the mid term by the looks of things.  

[tight isobar]

6 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

I am surprised at how cold those ens are this morning.

Not often you get multiple runs hitting the -10 to -15 range?  Something is brewing in the mid term by the looks of things.  

Someone who has noticed...AT LAST ?

[feb1991blizzard]

Too many sinkers in the suites, here is what you want if your going to have a proper potent lengthy spell of cold and not just a few snow grains -note how the PV is well out of harms way and so much margin for error with a stable high.

 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended keeps the majority of the UK dry most likely to see some precipitation would be the far south and maybe parts of the east

[Snowman.]

ECM goes with if at first you don't succeed.

Then try, try again.

 

[Daniel*]

2 hours ago, offerman said:

What would happen if the gulf steam weakened or even stopped?  We are still surrounded my water so would our winters be colder and potential icebergs drift down this far..... 

If it stopped our winters would be freezing probably! Would be very significant on our climate.

http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2017/06/06/could-climate-change-shut-down-the-gulf-stream/

Apparently it has slowed down between 15-20% since the 1970s this is indicative below the linear trend from 1900 to 2013 North Atlantic has cooled, a slow down of the circulation is discernible; imo that’s all the ‘cooling’ can be attributed to really or indeed the fresh water melt, however it sticks out like a sore thumb compared to other cold regions which have warmed despite the melt. Which therefore makes me think it’s not the melt entirely, but I think they overlap with another, saline currents bringing warmth are being disrupted IMO by all the excessive fresh water melt. In 2014 & 2015 area south of Greenland had record coldest anomalies going back to 1880, this should not be happening really everywhere else has warmed there was a lot of discussion on here, regarding a cold North Atlantic blob which seemed to go on and on. Clearly the world warming at an unprecedented rate at least recorded there are going to be winner and losers. Where we are positioned there truly could be an impact however it will be lessened by AGW there could still be a noticeable impact but some scientist theorise we could be a while off that. 

 

[weirpig]

I know most on here are chasing the fabled easterly.  However in the near term (and by that im mean 48hours or so)  there does look the possibility of snow, However how short lasting.  The GFS shows this quite well  espicially for the North west then progresing towards the spine of the country later on.  Certainly not enough to appease most people who have been waiting numerous of years for a snowflake.  but  its certainly better than nothing  and at least it wont feel as mild thats for sure.

[bluearmy]

Sorry peeps but I can’t see much more than a swipe from the beast as it passes to our se 

thats what the ens are reflecting with their members between -10 and -15

we had this last year at some point I think with a transient -12c over the eastern side of the uk. 

still time for the ridge to gain enough amplitude to allow a decent easterly flow or the euro trough to get further northwest but not currently favoured 

[karlos1983]

Quite a big difference from the 00z to 06z run at +114 in the Atlantic 

 

[cheshire snow]

8 minutes ago, weirpig said:

I know most on here are chasing the fabled easterly.  However in the near term (and by that im mean 48hours or so)  there does look the possibility of snow, However how short lasting.  The GFS shows this quite well  espicially for the North west then progresing towards the spine of the country later on.  Certainly not enough to appease most people who have been waiting numerous of years for a snowflake.  but  its certainly better than nothing  and at least it wont feel as mild thats for sure.

But have you seen the predicted Temperature for that time period 5-7c with -5HPA As I have just posted in the NW Thread last week we had -7HPA and that just about delivered some slush to the higher ground.

NB The above is reference NW England not Scotland

C.S

[Daniel*]

14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Sorry peeps but I can’t see much more than a swipe from the beast as it passes to our se 

thats what the ens are reflecting with their members between -10 and -15

we had this last year at some point I think with a transient -12c over the eastern side of the uk. 

still time for the ridge to gain enough amplitude to allow a decent easterly flow or the euro trough to get further northwest but not currently favoured 

I did not recall so I had a look through the archives there wasn’t, this was as good as it got. Winter dominated with cold going se of us, while we sat under an anticyclone, SE Europe coldies were not complaining, tragic there was some really brutal cold at times in Jan we were untouched the SE just registered a below ave month.. 

Edited January 29, 2018 by Daniel*

[weirpig]

Just now, cheshire snow said:

But have you seen the predicted Temperature for that time period 5-7c with -5HPA As I have just posted in the NW Thread last week we had -7HPA and that just about delivered some slush to the higher ground.

NB The above is reference NW England not Scotland

C.S

Oh of course   if yow are looking for \ snowfest then forget it.  I was merely speaking about failing snow   It was the same in this location.  Just pointing something out that perhaps some people werent  aware of.   

[tight isobar]

168..gfs 6z heights pushing north/north east..and opening large swathe cold into uk shores...already a v-feasible evolution..and one that makes you take note...as the deal is far from done...no matter your views -or choice.

Edit;168 is cut off point -for me-..

Far to much to watch evolve after this on, migrate-push of vortex lobe...which will obviously be cricial/pivotal.

 

Edited January 29, 2018 by tight isobar

[Paul_1978]

24 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Quite a big difference from the 00z to 06z run at +114 in the Atlantic 

 

What are you seeing Karl? They look pretty much identical to me.

[bluearmy]

22 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I did not recall so I had a look through the archives there wasn’t, this was as good as it got. Winter dominated with cold going se of us, while we sat under an anticyclone, SE Europe coldies were not complaining, tragic there was some really brutal cold at times in Jan we were untouched the SE just registered a below ave month.. 

Thanks for spending the time on that Daniel but I really think it was last winter and when I say transient, it was just a few hours on the euro 4 one night! It may not show on the meteociel ncep archive! 

The point is that a short spell of sub -10c uppers is not indicative itself of anything particularly wintry. 

[Jason M]

Well it looks increasingly like the 'beast' will simply growl at us before its sent packing with its tail between its legs. By the time this stops correcting south the easterly will be in North Africa.

More runs needed but its hard to see this adjusting back north given the amount of energy going up and over.

 

 

[That ECM]

Nick Sussex, got much room at your house? Can you put up about 1000 nwp members? Looks like the cold from the ne is heading your way.

[karlos1983]

16 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

What are you seeing Karl? They look pretty much identical to me.

the 06z has low pressure to the North of the UK, the 00z has the low west of the UK. It ended up bringing more of a Northerly than a NE'ly. 

Must admit it, looking at purely NWP output, it does seem like it's going to be hard work to get anything snowy from an easterly source at present with that trop PV looking so angry.... We really need to see an Op or two produce this in the next few runs or I fear we could have missed this bite. Big EC update later... 

 

EDIT: So I guess we will have to settle for this instead 

Edited January 29, 2018 by karlos1983

[SLEETY]

9 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Well it looks increasingly like the 'beast' will simply growl at us before its sent packing with its tail between its legs. By the time this stops correcting south the easterly will be in North Africa.

More runs needed but its hard to see this adjusting back north given the amount of energy going up and over.

 

 

Despite the fact it’s not in the reliable timeframe and gfs flips about every 6 hours,so yes let’s write it off before it even exists 

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Despite the fact it’s not in the reliable timeframe and gfs flips about every 6 hours,so yes let’s write it off before it even exists 

Will have all changed by 12z not in reliable yet so I'm not worrying lol

[karlos1983]

Ironically the SE misses the coldest uppers on this run #justsaying 

[weirpig]

Only 14 days to go  then we can ice skate across to europe,  He taketh with the Easterly and giveth a northerly.  

[ICE COLD]

Well some posters have been saying the real cold will be after the 8th of feb towards mid feb . Let's hope so . ?