Model output discussion - mid January

[Daniel*]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

I'm not seeing anything noteworthy at all in the 18z

In FI? Only -13C uppers reach far east.. 

to be fair it has not been alone in gettting some very cold air in GEFS members have showed some properly cold air being advected for several days now around that date. ECM only yesterday yesterday had the same. 

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

A Scandinavian high is a balancing act of energy in the Northern and Southern arms of the jet and can't be modelled until within at least 168hours if not 120 hours ideally. It's climatology not picking up the strength of the ridge originally carved out on the 5th which will manifest by the 8th. Watch this space. Glosea is excellent at distance at energy distribution and this is seeing what we can't right now bar the odd rogue run

Hope so.

[inghams85]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

In FI? Only -13C uppers reach far east.. 

to be fair it has not been alone in gettting some very cold air in GEFS members have showed some properly cold air being advected for several days now around that date. ECM only yesterday yesterday had the same. 

This is brought about by the trigger low diving South East. The real amplification driven by the Glaam state will happen after. This original bout of colder 850s depend on this low so is susceptible to placement 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

In FI? Only -13C uppers reach far east.. 

to be fair it has not been alone in gettting some very cold air in GEFS members have showed some properly cold air being advected for several days now around that date. ECM only yesterday yesterday had the same. 

Its blink and youl miss it though, don't get fooled into thinking you'll get a tonking down there with that chart, you'll get a few hefty showers of snow grains.

[inghams85]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Hope so.

Me too mate. Being a fellow Yorkshireman it's been a winter of slush!

[Daniel*]

23 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

Me too mate. Being a fellow Yorkshireman it's been a winter of slush!

Irrelevant but the SE has struggled to even get slush count yourself lucky ! 

[John Michael How]

1 hour ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

I think a sustained cold spell is incoming but the models show barely any precipation. Just cold and dry is what will pan out.

Don't forget more than half the population of England would be affected with London and surrounding counties in the firing line for potential streamers. It's high time the South and East got their chance of some of the white stuff. share it out?

Edited January 29, 2018 by John Michael How

[inghams85]

31 minutes ago, John Michael How said:

Don't forget more than half the population of England would be affected with London and surrounding counties in the firing line for potential streamers. It's high time the South and East got their chance of some of the white stuff. share it out?

It wouldn't be what you think it is thought mate with those charts. Heights are too high. It's a combination of those blues on the H500 charts the blues/purples on the 850's and a breeze! The H500 heights would limit convection even in the south east but time for upgrades yet 

[BlackburnChris]

24 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

Me too mate. Being a fellow Yorkshireman it's been a winter of slush!

 

8 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

It wouldn't be what you think it is thought mate with those charts. Heights are too high. It's a combination of those blues on the H500 charts the blues/purples on the 850's and a breeze! The H500 heights would limit convection even in the south east but time for upgrades yet 

Once them uppers are in though , an attack from the SW would be interesting ..

[inghams85]

28 minutes ago, BlackburnChris said:

 

Once them uppers are in though , an attack from the SW would be interesting ..

That's very true. Any sort of breakdown will be very interesting no marginality this time

[karlos1983]

I’m not shocked at the lack of comments this morning, but ens still looking good! 

the Op just showing another plausible outcome. GEFS haven’t changed really, the spread is still very much clear to see, but a few more going for proper cold. 

ECM trickling out now. 

[Chesil View]

12 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I’m not shocked at the lack of comments this morning, but ens still looking good! 

the Op just showing another plausible outcome. GEFS haven’t changed really, the spread is still very much clear to see, but a few more going for proper cold. 

ECM trickling out now. 

If this set up is going to work out in the Coldies favour  I don,t think we,ll See the operational S produce anything exciting in the reliable timeframe until midweek at least.

[KTtom]

all the ingredients seem to be in place at 168 on the ecm....but you get the feeling the vortex over Greenland is just too strong and will flatten everything as it marches east..

 

 

[bluearmy]

7 hours ago, Jason M said:

My understanding is that control runs at same resolution as opp but with slightly different starting conditions. At shorter timescales or in complex set ups such as this I'd favor the opp and control over the ensembles (albeit I'd prefer to see a bit more back up).

Control is same starting data as op. Runs for whole 16 days at same res as gefs do up til T192 when they drop down a notch. All ens are lower res than op. Op drops res after day 10. Post day 10 op and control are running at similar res. 

looks to me like initial ridge cannot gain enough amplitude to bring us anything other than a cold block. whether there is another go from the Azores pulsing ne remains questionable although seems likely that’s the pv will dig south in week 2 which would allow for some mid Atlantic ridging

Edited January 29, 2018 by bluearmy

[offerman]

10 hours ago, Daniel* said:

@ArHu3 We’re on the receiving end of Gulf Stream (warm ocean currents), that’s why Western Europe keeps mild generally our prevailing wind direction is from the SW it’s no wonder, much like the NW Pacific states places that are kept mild by Pacific and North Pacific Jet Stream. I think a typical Seattle winter is alike to one in Cumbria, typically wet, overcast and often not cold enough.

What would happen if the gulf steam weakened or even stopped?  We are still surrounded my water so would our winters be colder and potential icebergs drift down this far..... 

[That ECM]

Ecm shows the mid Atlantic block not being able to go further north because of the energy from the nw. Never gets flattened but never gets high enough to create some fun and games. Cold and dry for the time being, where it goes from there, who knows. Still plenty of interest as the potential for the block to drift further north is there it's just not the most likely imo.

[Duane S.]

The latest output pretty much as we were. Perhaps a little step away from that quick easterly setup.

That said, just a minor misinterpretation of the signals by the models could easily swing this the other way and set up a decent easterly by this time next week.

I'm just not wholly convinced that the NH profile, with anticipated levels of amplification, will allow for anything substantial to build. For now at least.

Interestingly though, this is the spread at just day 4 (note where the greatest uncertainties are)...

Moving the sequence forwards, this 'spread' then follows the 'where does the energy go thereafter'?, W - E or more NW - SE. Hence why this is still not a done deal.

 

Either way though, further cold shots very likely as Feb progresses.

[mountain shadow]

11 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Either way though, further cold shots very likely as Feb progresses.

Which model output shows that "further cold shots are very likely as Feb progresses?"

I must have missed those this morning.

 

[tight isobar]

Decent ooz ens this morn....

Tighter clustering begining to appear..

Ops -as before-..will wobble with height align with hem state,-and decipher of placement.

All very encouriging!!

 

 

london suite

Edited January 29, 2018 by tight isobar

[That ECM]

10 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Which model output shows that "further cold shots are very likely as Feb progresses?"

I must have missed those this morning.

 

Looking at the nh profile it's not difficult to see why there is the potential for cold shots. You might argue the "very likely" 

 

tweak the high slightly further north on the gfs chart and it is a cold shot. If you take that chart as it is, some would get wintry showers. 

 

Your post has a Monday morning feel to it

Edited January 29, 2018 by That ECM

[Duane S.]

8 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Which model output shows that "further cold shots are very likely as Feb progresses?"

I must have missed those this morning.

 

 I am not basing that on model output FI. That would be plain wrong.

[Scandinavian High.]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Decent ooz ens this morn....

Tighter clustering begining to appear..

Ops -as before-..will wobble with height align with hem state,-and decipher of placement.

All very encouriging!!

 

 

london suite

South east England looks very cold.

[Paul_1978]

I hope fellow weather enthusiasts who are seeing something with a bit more cold potential are onto something, because on the face of it there has been little to get excited about in the model output for a few days now. 

Will be keeping a watchful eye as ever!

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, abbie123 said:

South east England looks very cold.

Indeed a trend that is fast gaining momentum.

Need to view the ops with a little skepticism atm!!..

As they pull and tug with high cell switching-against north-western energy-ie vortex,..

Although for me that could further aid getting those heights, to wrap into scandi region....more favourably!???

[mulzy]

Extended eps seems broadly similar to previous BUT there seems to be further intensification of the low heights over Greenland and Iceland.  We need this trend to reverse.

Overall, the NWP signals seem very mixed and a tad underwhelming.

Edited January 29, 2018 by mulzy