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Model output discussion - mid January


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Yup, its kicking off early on the 18z, big turn around.:D

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gfs-2-174.png

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Did you check the date ?

And unless I slept through it.... I’m fairly certain it didn’t happen did it :nonono:

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Cold is coming in quicker on the 18z.  -10's knocking on the east cost door 

gfs-1-180.png?18

Nice run so far, although it looks fairly dry at this point

 gfsnh-0-174.png?18

 

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

-12's into the East Anglia and the south east by 192.

gfs-1-192.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Bloody Laptop - duplicated. Please delete mods.

Edited by Ice Day
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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

Well the pub run is certainly cold. -12 into the SE which off a direct easterly in early Feb is nailed on ice day . Not often you see charts like these at days 6-8.

IF that occurred the word 'marginal' wouldn't be getting used much!

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
6 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Cold is coming in quicker on the 18z.  -10's knocking on the east cost door 

gfs-1-180.png?18

Nice run so far, although it looks fairly dry at this point

 gfsnh-0-174.png?18

 

-12 850's quite far in ?

EDIT -make that -13 's

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Edited by ICE COLD
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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

228 and it's very cold and dry under a high

gfs-1-228.png?18 gfsnh-0-228.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Very cold but mostly dry, as with most easterlies we get in recent years... still can't complain at the uppers on offer! Would feel pretty brutal in that.

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

GEFS will be interesting. Only thing to note though is that these easterlies historically tend to correct south over time and we have no margin for that here. 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
8 minutes ago, Jason M said:

GEFS will be interesting. Only thing to note though is that these easterlies historically tend to correct south over time and we have no margin for that here. 

Not to sure..the high wrap seems to be edging its placements further north through various outs..with bigger margin- for larger swathe, incursion of colder inflow(850's)

And format getting to eye candy proportions. Could end with perfect time slots for adjustment.....fingers crossed anyway!!?,?

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
4 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

228 and it's very cold and dry under a high

gfs-1-228.png?18 gfsnh-0-228.png?18

Very cold days barely above freezing sparkling winter sunshine, fantastic unless you like snow! 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, Jason M said:

GEFS will be interesting. Only thing to note though is that these easterlies historically tend to correct south over time and we have no margin for that here. 

Yes - people think that I'm being IMBY when I say that, but I'm not, them ones where the low 500mb heights only clip Kent, ok they might mean Kent get a dusting, but you will not get any PPN even with -10 to -12c uppers if the pressure is 1030 and heights are in the 540's - maybe a dusting, I warned people about this in feb/march2013 and late Jan/feb 12.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Very cold days barely above freezing sparkling winter sunshine, fantastic unless you like snow! 

Well Daniel, you know the Netweather saying, 'get the cold in first......'

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

 

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - people think that I'm being IMBY when I say that, but I'm not, them ones where the low 500mb heights only clip Kent, ok they might mean Kent get a dusting, but you will not get any PPN even with -10 to -12c uppers if the pressure is 1030 and heights are in the 540's - maybe a dusting, I warned people about this in feb/march2013 and late Jan/feb 12.

Yep, dry for most. I think Kent, Sussex would get a fair bit though from that set up. Ideally you want pressure below 1025. Too early to worry though as even a dry easterly is a long way from being nailed yet. 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
3 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Well Daniel, you know the Netweather saying, 'get the cold in first......'

Beat me to it..?

An easterly will gain with time..and precip will begin to show as some convection will flag up the longer the flow holds...so much to be eyeing...and for all good reason!!!

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Well Daniel, you know the Netweather saying, 'get the cold in first......'

Initially there are snow showers confined to largely east of IOW. It is probable especially in shade this would stick about, GFS 18z has it turning increasingly anticyclonic cutting off cold air. Issue is more time is wasted.

004F5F02-EFB8-4449-A1A8-A4206D315761.thumb.png.513d194828d7f484af29c7bd47e1c6e5.pngA273E50B-F4FA-43ED-8F51-063961B24041.thumb.png.99ec41117aa5efb17357feb83c3a38aa.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

I see those good strat charts have completely disappeared now, vortex looking very strong in top to mid strat.

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Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk

Going back to what i said earlier thats another 18z that follows previous 18's bringing in very cold uppers.

What i'd love to start seeing now is some stonking Ecm runs with even better amplification than Gfs and then a meet in the middle during the next 5 days, i think if we could get that we'd be in a half decent position.

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