Model output discussion - mid January

[Daniel*]

@ArHu3 We’re on the receiving end of Gulf Stream (warm ocean currents), that’s why Western Europe keeps mild generally our prevailing wind direction is from the SW it’s no wonder, much like the NW Pacific states places that are kept mild by Pacific and North Pacific Jet Stream. I think a typical Seattle winter is alike to one in Cumbria, typically wet, overcast and often not cold enough.

Edited January 28, 2018 by Daniel*

[Norrance]

1 minute ago, MP-R said:

Scotland would be more affected by higher pressure and less of an easterly flow, perhaps even a wrap-around within the high's circulation. A beast from the east in Scotland would most likely be a southeasterly or southwesterly in the south.

Can anyone think of examples of a proper easterly affecting the entire length of the UK?

Eastern Scotland did very well out of Easterlies in for example 1947, 1963, 1978, 1986 and 1987. The only time I can think of that they didn't do so well was 1991 and when there were not proper  Scandy highs. I.e. So called Sceuros or when the orientation of the high did not help. Being nearer the high is compensated by the longer sea fetch if the uppers are cold enough.

[ArHu3]

9 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

@ArHu3 We’re on the receiving end of Gulf Stream (warm ocean currents), that’s why Western Europe keeps mild generally our prevailing wind direction is from the SW it’s no wonder, much like the NW Pacific states places that are kept mild by Pacific and North Pacific Jet Stream. I think a typical Seattle winter is alike to one in Cumbria, typically wet, overcast and often not cold enough.

Yes,  I do consider ourselves  to be lucky though, it could have been a lot worse, we could have had an Aleutian climate, year round chilly, rainy nothingness 

 

"The mean annual temperature for Unalaska, the most populated island of the group, is about 38 °F (3 °C), being about 30 °F (−1 °C) in January and about 52 °F (11 °C) in August. The highest and lowest temperatures recorded on the islands are 78 °F (26 °C) and 5 °F (−15 °C) respectively. The average annual rainfall is about 80 inches (2,000 mm), and Unalaska, with about 250 rainy days per year, is said to be one of the rainiest places within the U.S.^[4]"

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Yes,  I do consider ourselves  to be lucky though, it could have been a lot worse, we could have had an Aleutian climate, year round chilly, rainy nothingness 

 

"The mean annual temperature for Unalaska, the most populated island of the group, is about 38 °F (3 °C), being about 30 °F (−1 °C) in January and about 52 °F (11 °C) in August. The highest and lowest temperatures recorded on the islands are 78 °F (26 °C) and 5 °F (−15 °C) respectively. The average annual rainfall is about 80 inches (2,000 mm), and Unalaska, with about 250 rainy days per year, is said to be one of the rainiest places within the U.S.^[4]"

 Or we could have been much luckier - Siberia - guaranteed -40c and snow every winter - mind you its hot in the summer so there is a downside.

[Singularity]

I sense that the potential influence of model bias is very large for the weekend onward; if there is even a little too much 'spillage' of cold air out of N. America into the N. Atlantic, this will mean the thermal gradient is significantly too high, and then you have some bias toward intensifying LP systems too much as they interact with whatever thermal gradient is modelled.

So bias on top of bias - but unfortunately this does not allow a reliable anticipation of what will actually happen, because it's possible that the AAM rise might be a bit slower than GEFS for example currently predicts, in which case such bias could prove to be toward what is actually the right outcome after all.

On the other hand, the AAM could climb faster and further and render the current runs way too progressive.

From this sort of conundrum, one can begin to appreciate just how impressive it is that we humans have developed methods and machines that are able to produce forecasts that are even loosely along the right lines at more than 3 or 4 day's range, let alone very close to the mark on a good few occasions .

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 Or we could have been much luckier - Siberia - guaranteed -40c and snow every winter - mind you its hot in the summer so there is a downside.

• Luckier
• -40c

[ArHu3]

3 minutes ago, Singularity said:

 

From this sort of conundrum, one can begin to appreciate just how impressive it is that we humans have developed methods and machines that are able to produce forecasts that are even loosely along the right lines at more than 3 or 4 day's range, let alone very close to the mark on a good few occasions .

Reliability of forecasts during summer 25 years ago is about at the same level as reliability of forecasts during winter today, it's amazing how elusive our weather during winter is

[Duane S.]

51 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

MJO watch

ECM- 

And today’s GFS not backing down regards its very amplified progress through the Pacific.. 

 

Edited January 28, 2018 by s4lancia

[Dennis]

frustrating times for weatherfreaks : winter or mild it cant be said

[feb1991blizzard]

12 minutes ago, RAIN RAIN RAIN said:

• Luckier
• -40c

You aren't going to get any marginality creeping in at those temps are you?

[Frostbite1980]

19 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You aren't going to get any marginality creeping in at those temps are you?

We would still get freezing rain ?

[ICE COLD]

Any news on the ECM Ens people ? Or are they not to good ?. Thanks . 

[Summer Sun]

26 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Any news on the ECM Ens people ? Or are they not to good ?. Thanks . 

The London ens is supportive of a cool down some of the other members will be able to give you a better breakdown on them

Edited January 28, 2018 by Summer Sun

[karlos1983]

15 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Any news on the ECM Ens people ? Or are they not to good ?. Thanks . 

Operational Loses it’s way in terms of being the mildest of the lot around the 2/3rd Feb, then sticks around he pack until again ending as one of the milder solutions by D10

EDIT: SS visual format above ^^ 

Edited January 28, 2018 by karlos1983

[ANYWEATHER]

The Jet stream is too strong to form any long lasting cold from the east ...Jet too strong fuelled from north America and a strong Polar Vortex. Despite the models toying with cold to the east of us I think we need too look west for a little while

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The London ens is supportive of a cool down some of the of members will be able to give you a better breakdown on them

Thanks SS . Seems to be a pretty good set for cold . I await the top dog posters to post on the exstended eps . ?

[Scandinavian High.]

These are for London southern Britain looks to be going in to the freezer with this .

[bluearmy]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

Thanks SS . Seems to be a pretty good set for cold . I await the  posts on the exstended eps . ?

Remaining on the cold  side with mean slp high across our latitude and low over the med. consistent with previous runs and clusters awaited 

[nytram43]

4 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

These are for London southern Britain looks to be going in to the freezer with this .

There is still a large spread on that chart after the 1/2/18

[ICE COLD]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Remaining on the cold  side with mean slp high across our latitude and low over the med. consistent with previous runs and clusters awaited 

Nice one BA . Let's hope there's some really fridged ENS showing up in the exstended ? 

[feb1991blizzard]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Remaining on the cold  side with mean slp high across our latitude and low over the med. consistent with previous runs and clusters awaited 

That suggests it isn't particularly high in the Northern Lattitudes though - any likleyhood showing of anything ridging further North on the mean?

[snowflakey]

6 hours ago, bluearmy said:

At last -  cross model agreement at day 10 between ecm and gfs 

 

 

 

 

 

Check the date though ......

Would be interesting if they got there by the same route.

[Airedalejoe]

2 hours ago, offerman said:

Excellent post. And thats what i just cant understand . They dont seem to have an equivalent of an azores high that permanently buggers up their winters. Winter after winter now in the US seems to be so frigid ......

Until the azores high retreats south or far west to allow northerlies incursion or to drift up and above us i just cant see how any cold can develop. once again all the recent euphoria has yet again been nullified. 

 

Just ignore these longer range charts and you'll now be disappointed, i know as i used to do the same as so many on here and took too much notice of all the blue deep cold in F! that so so so rarely panned out. Wait until better verification nearer in... 3-4 days and even then that can still swing wildly .....  

It's easy to understand, just read up on winter climate of northern United states and Canada compared to the U.K. Vastly different, always has been.

[SMU]

18z @138 has residual heights to the North & the low pressure not as developed as the Euros...

looks good! 

Steady as she goes...

[karlos1983]

T’would Be chilly doon south