Model output discussion - mid January

[snowbunting]

1 minute ago, igloo said:

Well the west is best if you live in western scotland northern ireland or cumbria as easterlys deliver nothing in those areas but i do no the cold gets modifayed the further south it goes which sadly has been the case all season so far for the southern half of the uk

To be honest, we have had so much snow up here I would happily settle for some sunny cold weather.. aka easterly.

[Daniel*]

Mean uppers at T+192 if we can advect the cold air as ECM funnels it straight towards us then we would be set for a very cold air / spell from the E it’s not been available previously.

[danthetan]

31 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Because everyone loves to chase cold snowy charts at 240hrs ?. To  be fair John the reason the most of us are chasing them is because in the next 5 to 7 days it standard boring weather . What is there to discuss ?? We all want proper winter weather for once . Like tonight's ECM . 

Last time I checked this isn't a roulette table or some sort disconnect from real life that people come to discuss weather it still needs some degree of normality to steer it away from charts in the 10 day range to keep sanity.. its like walking into a job tomorrow and the boss telling you in 10 years time you will leave here a millionaire

[blizzard81]

Gfs ensembles look like an upgrade to cold to me. 

[Allseasons-Si]

Love reading your posts Nick S,it brings a smile to my face when i am down trying to find this easterly lol

we are always at the pinacle in winter months of atlantic weather and continental source and we are always at the last stop or not if you get my gist and the continent gets all the gubbins

it is a finely balanced situation(KNIFE edge) as the winter forecast suggested from NW team and it looks that way at the moment

lets just hope that we can get the pattern to back west a tad,we deserve it cos it's been so long since we had a cold spell,i meen proper cold spell and non of this dusting or slush fest that we have had already,although parts of the midlands have had two snow events but hardly stuck around for long

p.s,not posted in a while,my partner was rushed into hospital last monday vomiting blood from a viral infection and initally the docs thought it was jaundice disease but thankfully it was not,she has just come out yesterday evening so not a good week.

 

[Allseasons-Si]

And whats with this warming NE of Canda!

gfs det/control more so

18z

what are the ramifications of this!,can GP or the well known few shead some light

usually you get this in NE siberia,confused.com.

there has been a slight warming on the jma plots at 30/10 hpa back to recovery but not sufficient enough to bring the pv down i would of thought.

 

Edited January 28, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[igloo]

22 minutes ago, snowbunting said:

To be honest, we have had so much snow up here I would happily settle for some sunny cold weather.. aka easterly.

Yes it would be a nice change western scotland has had a real pasteing this season from snow but looking at the 18z run we will need a new snow shovel well i will i broke mine last week trying to shovel 14 inches of snow from my pad  two weeks of hard frosts and sun would cheer us all up 

[danthetan]

3 minutes ago, igloo said:

Yes it would be a nice change western scotland has had a real pasteing this season from snow but looking at the 18z run we will need a new snow shovel well i will i broke mine last week trying to shovel 14 inches of snow from my pad  two weeks of hard frosts and sun would cheer us all up 

To be fair you western scots have an absolute tuning from every weather apart from sunshine. so you'll save a bit on sunglasses this year for a new shovel 

[snowray]

51 minutes ago, igloo said:

Yes it would be a nice change western scotland has had a real pasteing this season from snow but looking at the 18z run we will need a new snow shovel well i will i broke mine last week trying to shovel 14 inches of snow from my pad  two weeks of hard frosts and sun would cheer us all up 

I'm sure you could build an Igloo where you are, you must be one of our highest members igloo, as in altitude I mean. 

In fact I bet it can snow where you live at over 300m asl in Scotland even in the Summer, I mean thats close on to 1,000ft up!

Edited January 28, 2018 by snowray

[Pembroke Dangler]

17 minutes ago, snowray said:

I'm sure you could build an Igloo where you are, you must be one of our highest members igloo, as in altitude I mean. 

In fact I bet it can snow where you live at over 300m asl in Scotland even in the Summer, I mean thats close on to 1,000ft up!

Makes you think why you would bother looking at the models if the weather you get Day in day out is the same regardless of what season it is as would be the case in certain parts of the country I mean come on why brag like? If I had snow sitting on my door step in July I’d be pretty peeeed off tbh. Just saying!!

[igloo]

44 minutes ago, snowray said:

I'm sure you could build an Igloo where you are, you must be one of our highest members igloo, as in altitude I mean. 

In fact I bet it can snow where you live at over 300m asl in Scotland even in the Summer, I mean thats close on to 1,000ft up!

Some of the older generation  arould here told me of the times when snow was still piled up in  the shaded areas in may and was black with soot from the coal  fires they burned thats how long it used to lay some years not anymore oviously but i would gladly swap weather with you for a year if it was possible you would notice a big difference in rainfall and sunshine thats for sure

[Polar Maritime]

Please use the Banter/moans thread for chit chat. Just 'Model Discussion' in here thankyou, Please continue..

[feb1991blizzard]

GFS as flat as a pancake across the atlantic.

[SLEETY]

Well any sign of this deep fetch Easterly ,is well and truly buried this morning on the gfs .

Infact it’s the complete opposite ,after a couple of cold shots from the NW ,it’s looking like a very zonal outlook with strong winds at times too.

Thats the problem chasing Easterlies,untill they appear within t96 then the chance of them ever verifying at a later timescale is probably close to 0%. .

[feb1991blizzard]

The strat charts are an absolute stonker though - 1mb is toast with  stonking sisplacement - GEFS lookin good in FI as well.

EDIT : ridgy to NE but atlantic too strong for my liking.

Edited January 28, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[That ECM]

Ecm, like a dog with a bone. Won't let go of the ridge. Interesting. Gfs has the energy coming over the top and flattening the ridge. Until this is resolved the uncertainty continues. 

 

Look at the difference in outcome depending on the ridge holding or not.

Edited January 28, 2018 by That ECM

[KTtom]

850hpa uppers....that is some serious cold bottled up the the north west...anyone going to Canada over the next few days will need more than  Woolly jumper!

Edited January 28, 2018 by KTtom

[Newberryone]

10 minutes ago, KTtom said:

850hpa uppers....that is some serious cold bottled up the the north west...anyone going to Canada over the next few days will need more than  Woolly jumper!

Ecm00z looking more progressive again with a lot of energy on the northern arm of the jet. Besides, frigid temps over Canada and North America usually does not bode well for us in terms of cold. A fueling of the jet stream ain’t something we want to be seeing with the clock already ticking on the winter of 17/18 

[mulzy]

Decent support from the eps for the det solution at day 8:

GEFS much flatter...

Edited January 28, 2018 by mulzy

[Ice Day]

Shannon entropy is very much in evidence across the models this morning.  The ECM is again the pick of the bunch bringing in some cold air and a possible battleground scenario at 216 and 240, the uppers look decent.

216  240 

Although by 240 the ECM Op is on the cold side of the mean for London

As Feb said earlier, the GFS ensembles are still pretty decent with a lot of cold FI options on the board.  There's good agreement to 120 then predictably a lot of scatter thereafter

One thing is for sure, there is going to be a lot of model flip flopping over the next few days, I think it's going to take a couple more days until we nail next weekend then we can start to see if February's 'potential' comes to pass.  I suspect today's runs won't be for the faint hearted!

 

 

[nick sussex]

The Euros have been nothing short of abysmal in terms of the upstream pattern.

Note today the single low upstream has now split into two lows both wrong yesterday evening between T96 and T120hrs!

I'd ignore anything the ECM comes up with till cross model agreement , it still finds away after the earlier debacle to throw out another tease but its the most amplified upstream solution upto T144hrs and its really not to be trusted given the mess its made already.

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, Newberryone said:

Ecm00z looking more progressive again with a lot of energy on the northern arm of the jet. Besides, frigid temps over Canada and North America usually does not bode well for us in terms of cold. A fueling of the jet stream ain’t something we want to be seeing with the clock already ticking on the winter of 17/18 

Looking at the London ens it’s by and large an outlier only at D10 it is a cold one the mean flatlines at -5C from the 5th you could say chance of colder conditions before mid month has increased.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended moving towards a northerly

[ANYWEATHER]

1 hour ago, Newberryone said:

Ecm00z looking more progressive again with a lot of energy on the northern arm of the jet. Besides, frigid temps over Canada and North America usually does not bode well for us in terms of cold. A fueling of the jet stream ain’t something we want to be seeing with the clock already ticking on the winter of 17/18 

Indeed if you trace the jet stream back over to North America you will see a semi permanent lobe of the polar vortex somewhere over Canada  and the northern states for many days to come and into a good bite of February.  Does not bode well for the uk however as that intense cold only goes on to keep refueling the jet stream giving the uk potent low pressure systems and snow mainly for upland areas at best. We need the polar vortex to reshuffle and move away from its presant location over north America to give us in the uk a fighting chance of some decent wintry weather, at the moment though I can't see a major pattern change

[bluearmy]

The pv, centered over Baffin does allow for us to go cold. A strong northern arm isn’t necessarily going to mean we can’t get a scandi ridge with enough westward influence. It does mean that we are very unlikely to see any sustained mid Atlantic ridging Unless the vortex digs into the USA which currently looks uncertain ( more unlikely side). 

The ec control builds the scandi ridge again and is frigid for nw Europe in general. 

the strat continues  to look like mid Feb scandi ridge but all this is quite a way away Unless the ec theme of earlier pressure build proves correct and can withstand the jet.