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Model output discussion - mid January


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Definitely less kick out of the Atlantic on this run.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It barely gets the -6c isotherm into Britain and likely wont do much better throughout the whole run.

Ignorance prevails!!!

@freezer run in the situ of depth of n-hem cold, develop..

Not uk..

As that would be ignorant for beleive!!

Its surge placement and charge..going forwards...thats my point!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Still disagreements upstream with the GFS splitting the lows and the ECM/UKMO keeping the single low which then phases with the next one upstream over Canada.

I think we'd prefer the Euros here because in the shorter term their evolution has a better chance of getting something more interesting to develop.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Pretty much your perfect scandi Heights!

BD587D3B-CEE0-44B2-8799-B3C98631F8C8.thumb.png.567aa37cb3ed8642ea9d03a5db08c55e.png

ECM comes of the naughty step this evening :D

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

seems an odd jump from 168 to 192-

ECH1-168-2.thumb.gif.3d6f2be2b80c748a0cc6f39585c140f7.gif

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still, we'll take it!

need the azores high to link up with that scandi high...

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

OMG back to chasing trigger shortwaves! Wheres the brandy!

The ECM somehow manages to get that shortwave se, we need more sharpness upstream and a westwards correction to increase the chance of this happening.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Oh damn... typically as the GEFS start turning flatter the ECM op throws a spanner in, its as if they so it purposely 

IMG_0044.GIF

The wrap is of 'near' perfection..

and cold pooling...and indeed evolution STILL, underplayed...but the shelf is being dusted off now!!!

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Likely see more of this 'type' evolution..

As mjo get grip..

And russian warm holds the pattern with tighter vigor!!..

And pac punching bullys the show..b4 momentum gives.....

And uk cold opens...

ECH1-216.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

A lot better than I thought and some serious cold pooling likely to build at some point very close to UK in next 2 weeks, but the Northern arm and PV just too strong so far - this could be about to turn into an almighty all or nothing situation, by where it will either fail, or it will go down with 87 and 91 as one of the great all time UK snow events.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

I'm a little suspicious of how the ECM manages to get that shortwave se between T168hrs and T192hrs.

The upstream flow isn't really that amplified, we need a more amplified Azores high to the west.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry, 102m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow or Heat
  • Location: Coventry, 102m asl
7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Well it’s not perfect but -10c widespread into England ...

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@Steve with respect and I mean it, the forcing from the Eastern see board is huge due to massive temperature gradient that in another few days time all of these beauties will be blown away. So I would suggest to stick to the reliable until all big 3 agree somewhat ? 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

OMG ?. Just thought are have a quick look at the ecm it will probley be S**t . And I nearly choked on my chicken wing ?. Very good run after a couple of not so good runs from GFS . -12 850s and -15 into the North Sea . 

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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

Well we certainly have time for a big freeze as early February can still deliver deep cold. Time is ticking though so for the proper stuff it needs to come together this week.

Hope you get the beast Steve, for sheer heart alone you darn well deserve it!!

Edited by January Snowstorm
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

The GFS 12z was not all that far away from doing what the ECM 12z has done - it just takes enough of a lull in polar westerlies in response to the P4 GWO ahead of the next kick that looks linked to stratospheric vortex movements (but only briefly as it keeps on moving beyond Greenland) and perhaps some lagged MJO 5 effect.

The resultant Scandinavian highs tend to be elongated in shape with the jet riding over the top but a trough to the south preventing a sink. Needing good behaviour from both the trough disruption and subsequent trough placement does make these among the trickiest Scandinavian highs to achieve bit their elongated shape makes them the best to move deep cold quickly across to the UK.

So it’s a high stakes game although not quite as much as usual given that should the ridge be sunk, the MJO expectations increase the odds jet the resultant Euro ridge doesn’t stick around for long.

Of course it’s too soon to know if we’ll even be playing the game in the first place. Just something to keep a eye on for now. 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
59 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Likely see more of this 'type' evolution..

As mjo get grip..

And russian warm holds the pattern with tighter vigor!!..

And pac punching bullys the show..b4 momentum gives.....

And uk cold opens...

ECH1-216.gif

RIP- HARRY-GEORGE-JOSH..

HOW TRAGIC!?..

MY DAUGHTERS PALS??

???

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

On the face of it the ECM doesn't look too crash hot, although theres a ridge it looks like its too far East, I would wager though that there will be some really frigid runs and the D15 charts will look interesting.

EDH1-240_wkh1.GIF

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1 hour ago, Draig Goch said:

Hahaha you couldn't make it up, ECM shows a tiny little finger of mild air stretching across SW England & SW Wales to spoil the party  :doh:elsewhere it stays colder 

 

image.jpeg

Not the middle finger by any chance? :rofl:

Edited by Dafydd Tomos
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