Model output discussion - mid January

[SMU]

Control run is the best run of all time !

[Snowman.]

The control is incredible. Like 11/10 incredible. One of the best runs I have seen.

 

Mean at T360 

 

What was that about the models moving away from a blocked pattern and in cold zonality? 

Edited January 26, 2018 by SN0WM4N

[Ice Day]

12 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Pleasantly surprised that the GFS is showing the blocking develop so soon to the north, given the forecast MJO doesn’t get into phase seven until first few days of February, taking into account the lag of 5-10 days. So, could be the effects of the –EPO ridge building into the arctic before the upper flow response to the MJO moving into western Pac that’s causing the flow to buckle, so when the MJO does impact the upper flow, we could be locking into a protracted cold pattern through February.

What is encouraging this winter is that although last winter saw a weak La Nina too – with –EPO ridging, this winter the 500mb patterns have featured a lot more troughing over mainland Europe, whereas last winter featured a lot of ridging – which suggests La Nina is not the only driver of the patterns, but the state of the Polar Vortex and also effects of the eQBO are shaping up a different winter to last, despite La Nina base state.

Great post Nick, however I became fixated on your comment that 'we could be locking into a protracted cold pattern through February.'  I acknowledge that I am generally a 'glass half full' type, however I really am of the opinion the February 2018 could be a notable month.

[Daniel*]

5 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

The control is incredible. Like 11/10 incredible. One of the best runs I have seen.

 

Exceptionally cold sub zero days and protracted, CET would be markedly below average. This weather malarky is not great for your health but let’s hope our efforts are rewarded I think this could be the one.  

[feb1991blizzard]

I didn't want to say anything but saw some concerning aspects from the 12z GEFS suite re - longjevity and the PV / northern arm strength because I thought I might have been accused of being too negative, was always going to wait a few suites before warning but anyway I'm glad to report, the GEFS 18z, EPS 12z and JMA ens 12z have blown that need completely out of the water now anyway.

Edited January 26, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[Ice Day]

The control run....

  

As was a common refrain from my school days...'flippin 'eck Tucker'

[Guest]

AN APPEAL - CAN ANYONE HELP US IN ACCESSING SPECIALIST AAM DATA and GSDM PLOTS?

One of the very few sources providing access to key data that our specialists refer to in their posts on the MOD or the learning thread was closed down yesterday without prior notice. This is the WDT website and their homepage provides a "Notice" and brief explanation on this link:   https://futures.wdtinc.com/   

The data that they produced included the following past, current and forecast charts for:

AAM - Atmospheric Angular Momentum tendency

FT - Frictional Torque

MT - Mountain Torque 

GWO - Global Wind Oscillation (alternative data is available for this - see below).

In the WDT "Notice" they refer to the NOAA site who had already withdrawn their support of the Global Synoptic Dynamic Model (GSDM) after their two scientists who had developed it both retired several years ago. This can be seen here:   https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/gsdm.composites.shtml

This is a double blow to anyone active in this exciting field of scientific research. Most of us are not professionals and cannot afford to pay substantial subscriptions to access the handful of remaining organisations that assemble and/or process this data. A small group of us might consider contributing a modest amount to share a subscription service. The advances in this area of teleconnection science have been significant in recent years. If we are to see more students and/or enthusiasts mastering this subject to take its development much further in the future, it's essential that at least the basic data is made available to every willing participant.

We are contacting a number of organisations and a few other known (worldwide) specialists in this field in the hope of finding a replacement source for the lost data. We feel that a few of you might be able to assist us in this quest. Do any of you have access to the charts described above? Alternatively, are you aware of anyone or any organisation that might be able to help? All suggestions would be appreciated - either by posting them on this thread or by sending me or any of us a PM ( @Bring Back1962-63, @Tamara, @Catacol or @Snowy Hibbo). Perhaps one of those professionals who has access is reading this? If so, could you get permission to post the relevant charts on the learning thread (see link below) directly or provide one of us with the link. If this is restricted data, please state the terms of access, copyright rules and whether a free to view or a  subscription service.  Any leads or pointers would be appreciated.

Finally, we can still obtain information from the free to view Albany site with Nicholas Schiraldi and ERS (Earth Risk Science) data showing GFS analysis plots with past and current AAM (no forecasts and no torque charts) and the GEFS GWO plots (past and forecast) on this link:   http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.html

Thank you in advance for any help or suggestions. David

For those of you who are interested and have not yet had a look at the new teleconnections thread where there is already an interesting range of posts here's the link:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89161-learning-about-teleconnection-science-and-background-signals/

or just click on the chart below:

 

Edited January 26, 2018 by Guest
Correct typos and check charts & links

[weirpig]

3 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

The control run....

  

As was a common refrain from my school days...'flippin 'eck Tucker'

Showing your age kid.  Hopefully we will get a bit of tuckers luck  

[bobbydog]

10 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

The control is incredible. Like 11/10 incredible. One of the best runs I have seen.

 

Mean at T360 

 

What was that about the models moving away from a blocked pattern and in cold zonality? 

ok, control yourself....

[snowray]

7 minutes ago, RAIN RAIN RAIN said:

Control says yes, yes, yes yes Yes Oh GOD YES! 

 

Was just looking at the control run myself, I would bank that.

18z ENS. Some members stay cold from day 5 and some getting close to the magical -15c hpa there too.

[Daniel*]

27 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

Mean at T360 

 

What was that about the models moving away from a blocked pattern and in cold zonality? 

Understandable ‘excitement’ imo. 24 hours between the two, this really shouts out to me higher than average confidence of a cold continental flow it’s highly usual to see this consistency well in FI. 

26/01 18Z mean 

25/01 18Z mean

Edited January 26, 2018 by Daniel*

[feb1991blizzard]

13 minutes ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

AN APPEAL - CAN ANYONE HELP US IN ACCESSING SPECIALIST AAM DATA and GSDM PLOTS?

 

 

I don't know if anyone knows GP personally but I'm sure he would have access to this info as it really is the basis of his LRFs

Also I take it @Tamara this makes the info you gave me yesterday null and void as a result of this website closure - how ironic!!

[Ice Day]

Just running through the ensembles at 240 and there's some very cold options showing, here's just a few for you to take to bed and give you sweet dreams of blizzards and 8 foot icicles hanging off your roof!

  

   

   

   

 

 

[ITSY]

Omg. That control run is the best control run I think I have ever seen! Like...wow. Wtf. 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, ITSY said:

Omg. That control run is the best control run I think I have ever seen! Like...wow. Wtf. 

Doesn't anyone like 18?? -  I think its at least equal to the control.

[feb1991blizzard]

deleted

Edited January 27, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[Ice Day]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Doesn't anyone like 18?? -  I think its at least equal to the control.

It's an absolute doozy....252 shows this.

  

[ITSY]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Doesn't anyone like 18?? -  I think its at least equal to the control.

To be fair, the sight of those -22 uppers on P18 heading towards the Low Countries does let loose with the imagination! 

[snowray]

7 minutes ago, ITSY said:

To be fair, the sight of those -22 uppers on P18 heading towards the Low Countries does let loose with the imagination! 

If those sort of uppers (16-22c) were let loose on the North Sea we would have a massive amount of lake effect snow falling widely, even in far western areas at times, the North Sea would demonstrate to the full what a snow making machine it can be when conditions are right.

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, snowray said:

If those sort of uppers (16-22c) were let loose on the North Sea we would have a massive amount of lake effect snow falling widely, even in far western areas at times, the North Sea would demonstrate to the full what a snow making machine it can be when conditions are right.

Agree although one small error - we wouldn't get snow with 16c uppers, in fact if we had 16-22c uppers in winter from an Easterly, I would have only one option and would have to concede that the experts prediction of 5c global temp increase by the end of this century would have come true and in spectacular and early fashion!!!

[ICE COLD]

Mate that control run on the 18z is amazing . I just keep running it through . Please let that happen ?. 

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

1 hour ago, weirpig said:

Showing your age kid.  Hopefully we will get a bit of tuckers luck  

Maybe a Steve Murr sausage? 

[inghams85]

Landing date 8th/9th starting to strengthen! What's great set of 18z's! Anyone notice the trend for Icelandic heights becoming Scandinavian ?? with the lag effect of any move to MJO Phase 8 after retrogression to Greenland would potentially make this a memorable February! Would love to see the latest GWO plot.....

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:This is a double blow to anyone active in this exciting field of scientific research. Most of us are not professionals and cannot afford to pay substantial subscriptions to access the handful of remaining organisations that assemble and/or process this data. A small group of us might consider contributing a modest amount to share a subscription service. The advances in this area of teleconnection science have been significant in recent years. If we are to see more students and/or enthusiasts mastering this subject to take its development much further in the future, it's essential that at least the basic data is made available to every willing participant.

 

That is a real kick in the stomach. I seem to recall might be a few years ago the data was suddenly restricted off access unless I’m going mad, that should be done at last resort it’s a lot of £££. I wouldn’t mind chipping in something while I don’t actively look at this data, not bothered by having access to subscription service, the more knowledgeable ‘amateur’ peeps well they’re professionals in my eyes, should be able to have access to it empty on me. I find it hard to make head or toe of it, I recognise how important this data is to people like Catacol / Tamara it’s essential, I hope if this is only option left, I hope not. The forum can rally together and be selfless; it’s this data what makes MOD thread so good. Collectively it can be done, amongst a small group I think that’s asking for too much, calling on the generosity of the wider forum would be of no harm. If it comes to it a fundraiser thread redirect page on here - call to arms..

[Ice Man 85]

 

I can hear the GFS serenading us now...

Tonight you're mine, completely
You give your love so sweetly
Tonight the light of love is in your eyes
But will you love me tomorrow?