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Model output discussion - mid January


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

I’d like to throw an enthusiastic ENS graph in the mix if I may :give_rose:

A0B9E4DE-09E6-4343-AC2E-3C6B2F2F31F5.thumb.gif.bb8ab0fecb2339e5552f1c455dffdc64.gif

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I’d like to throw an enthusiastic ENS graph in the mix if I may :give_rose:

A0B9E4DE-09E6-4343-AC2E-3C6B2F2F31F5.thumb.gif.bb8ab0fecb2339e5552f1c455dffdc64.gif

Dutch ensemble even much colder, with many members going for a northeastern. I haven't seen the plume end this cold this winter but I have seen enough of these plumes watered down to just miserable weather in the 96h-120h timeframe 

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
31 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Dutch ensemble even much colder, with many members going for a northeastern. I haven't seen the plume end this cold this winter but I have seen enough of these plumes watered down to just miserable weather in the 96h-120h timeframe 

Dammit, I saw a model post with the word 'plume' in it, and thought summer had arrived :cray:

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
3 hours ago, jvenge said:

Well, it is the model OUTPUT thread. Not the "What the models might show if they didn't show what they did" thread.So why say double digit low temperatures, when the actual chart output is available and says no to that? That setup is not locked in long enough to drive temperatures lower. Even at T312, when it already has almost no chance of verifying, we don't need to start making up temperatures when the output is available for it.

 

But the model output, particularly the GFS is often poor for surface temperatures, particularly at that range. It’s also not very high resolution so wouldn’t pick out the coldest spots.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

image.thumb.png.79793174bb6c8729456dce3f4df582a0.png

There is something a "foot" me thinks......snow I hope

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Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
2 hours ago, bobbydog said:

huge differences at day 10 between the ECM and the GFS

ECH1-240-14.thumb.gif.f584e824c82614b69092e40a580a47ba.gif

gfsnh-0-240-3.thumb.png.9cf994b9d3adb3192da8920ab2e40bea.png

one thing is for certain- that there is huge uncertainty in the output. but i can't be sure...

i'd say the chances are 50/50. though there's only a 10% chance of that....

I would actually argue that on a hemispheric scale, for two operational charts 10 days out they are remarkably consistent - if we take the main features in:

Atlantic ridging 

Asian ridge 

Big Alaskan ridge

Core of the PV west of Greenland and into N Canada

These features are pretty similar on both charts, with really just the Asian ridge that bit further west on the ECM v GFS

Of course on the more micro scale our tiny little island has two very different looking outcomes across the suites but I would say in general, for a single set of deterministic runs, they're pretty similar :)

Of course I know you were referring more to conditions on the ground back home which is what we're all here to see, but probably not something we should be paying too close attention to at the Day 10 range.

At least we know the major players in our hemisphere, let's see where we end up in the winter lottery draw

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
4 hours ago, Nick F said:

Rather underwhelming 00z EC operational run and 11-15 day EPS mean, however the 00z GEFS mean looks interesting in 11-15 day range and looks kind of similar to what EC46 was showing last night with regards to energy diving SE under a ridge over Northern Europe, the 00z EPS control follows a similar route too.

5322C8EF-BD1E-4F4D-BC1A-1C068AFD6FFE.thumb.png.1b75dac5464d09bd322db99ef5d7e6fe.png GEFS day 14

interesting tweet from a US Met about EC perhaps playing catch up with the amplitude of the MJO wave, As many may have noticed, GEFS much more amped into phase 7 than EC and this maybe reflected their output.

74236530-336F-47D0-9202-61876EBCFDD2.thumb.gif.137ef5051d62b2a29faad52334cf1a71.gif6348EF0B-D6F3-422F-8A1B-3E929ED2F9A3.thumb.gif.cd1155ef179d4185344b6c10c8cb0720.gif

Also plot below shows why CFS has been looking good for blocking prospects too

CA03A699-A54E-4F73-BA77-E851850475C2.thumb.jpeg.c86a68097662ae20dcf70f0c689e1753.jpeg

... and a little more hope for those thinking of throwing the towel in

 

Interesting viewing, this MJO forecast - last forecast cycle was going for reasonable values through 7 into 8 and it died on its a*** so it is fascinating watching where it goes this time around....... and backing one models output over another? not a call i'd make.

Wherever it ends up, its impact on UK weather is another kettle of fish entirely, but if one is hunting for a specific weather type it's reassuring at least to have as many measures of atmospheric movement as possible in your favour.

Edited by swebby
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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
14 minutes ago, snowking said:

I would actually argue that on a hemispheric scale, for two operational charts 10 days out they are remarkably consistent - if we take the main features in:

Atlantic ridging 

Asian ridge 

Big Alaskan ridge

Core of the PV west of Greenland and into N Canada

These features are pretty similar on both charts, with really just the Asian ridge that bit further west on the ECM v GFS

Of course on the more micro scale our tiny little island has two very different looking outcomes across the suites but I would say in general, for a single set of deterministic runs, they're pretty similar :)

Of course I know you were referring more to conditions on the ground back home which is what we're all here to see, but probably not something we should be paying too close attention to at the Day 10 range.

At least we know the major players in our hemisphere, let's see where we end up in the winter lottery draw

yes i suppose i should have been more specific in that i was referring to the atlantic side of the hemisphere.

there again, the features you mention which are consistent in each model, are in themselves very different and would lead to very different outcomes, or at least change the timescales in which we could see cold weather arrive here. the point really being, we don't know what will happen and if we are to get a decent cold shot, that timescale is still wide open at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Question, what sort of trop response would a warming like this provoke generally? I've not seen that before so just curious. TIA Karlos

gfsnh-10-384.png?6

EDIT: by "like this" I mean in that locale.

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
4 hours ago, Snowmadsam said:

North of the M4: Image result for snow scape

South of the M4: Image result for desert

The intrigue continues on todays runs with more interesting options on the table....

We've booked first dibs on a repeat February pattern of this....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/devon/content/articles/2008/02/21/blizzards_1978_archive_video_feature.shtml

38ec753c8deffcfb530dc63069376a0fdf7598d0.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
51 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Question, what sort of trop response would a warming like this provoke generally? I've not seen that before so just curious. TIA Karlos

gfsnh-10-384.png?6

EDIT: by "like this" I mean in that locale.

Yeh that does look unusual mate, we get used to seeing this kind of warming showing up around siberia, hopefully someone from the strat thread can shed some light on what it may mean, if anything at all?

Edited by Nicholas B
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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
4 hours ago, Nick F said:

Day 8 seems to be a pivotal point on GFS's recent runs to where we go thereafter. 

Lobe of the TPV centred over Hudson (Canada) pushes E then NE over eastern N America towards NW Atlantic pumping WAA towards S Greenland and Iceland, building an upper ridge north, while the TPV over Canada tightens and deepens in response to being squeezed south by cross-polar ridging further north from the -EPO ridge being pumped up from Siberian intense cold vortex upstream, this cross polar ridging helping weaken the height field over Svalbard and Greenland too - which will aid in cold air advecting S towards the UK.

GFSOPNH06_192_1.thumb.png.7643b75ad1f4175cc9472a6684ec4936.pngGFSOPNH06_216_1.thumb.png.5fa1cbbe00cad47693429b17a2eb6bf5.png

In a nutshell, this ^ ^

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Please delete.

Edited by Ed Stone
It was a right load of rubbish...Please try harder?
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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

12z is much colder later on too.

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Posted
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
  • Weather Preferences: snowy or sunny but not too hot!
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
2 hours ago, winterof79 said:

image.thumb.png.79793174bb6c8729456dce3f4df582a0.png

There is something a "foot" me thinks......snow I hope

Hello winteof79,

Yes it is 12 inches.:yahoo:

On a more serious note although i am no expert I too wonder if the models are starting to pick up signal of pressure building to the north/northeast of us. I know we have been here several times already this winter without quite getting there, in the south at least, as far as an easterly is concerned. Perhaps this time the high pressure will be more robust and positioned in a more favourable location to bring us what we all crave.

Kind Regards

Dave

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Finally the GEM wants to know in week two aswell

question remains as to whether the ecm will find this type solution at some point on the op 

To be honest, as long as more and more eps members find it over next few runs, I wouldn't be overly concerned about the op finding it until D5(ish)

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

To be honest, as long as more and more eps members find it over next few runs, I wouldn't be overly concerned about the op finding it until D5(ish)

I rather think that the op needs to find it at some point, even if it’s only for one run and then it’s dropped for the next couple days 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Some stonkers in that set

5AA3EE5C-5356-4C2F-9DA0-F72E5CF5EBE9.thumb.gif.55d8330b78ad36e1821467b48351c06c.gif

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