Model output discussion - mid January

[Methuselah]

And just in case y'all blink and missed the first wee snap, here's the start of another one:

Yes please!

Edited January 25, 2018 by Ed Stone

[frosty ground]

That's the Jet profile you want if you want an Easterly.

[inghams85]

Under them 850's and such a slack flow it will be incredibly cold. Phase 7 into 8 will make for a very cold period of weather to come as we get the next burst of amplification. Baby steps and a shift north of 300 miles in the pattern which is possible at that stage could make this very memorable indeed

Right on cue here comes the next stage!

Model watching just got very interesting

Edited January 25, 2018 by inghams85

[feb1991blizzard]

500 miles too far south - bring it further North and boom.

[frosty ground]

And those that keep repeating myth "northern Arm of the Jet is too strong" (also look at Feb 1991) (Not the poster)

 

[tight isobar]

Certainly some interesting stuff from gfs 12z.. with cold snap after cold snap then... a good old fashioned easterly incur!!!

And the 12z latter stages would as many times in the 80's.. have kent burried..

Worth mentioning-because with the signal playing on and cross data script continuing to do so....

See where we end up come 7-7:30 tonight!!???

[Duncan McAlister]

Seems like there will be enough cold around for something in early February whether from the west, north or east!

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

500 miles too far south - bring it further North and boom.

Im ok in that set up!!??

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

500 miles too far south - bring it further North and boom.

And as if by magic, 3 frames later it does!!!!  -   Now just sort the 500mb heights out so we have steeper mid level lapse rates and bring it within 96 and wallop - we are in business!.

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

500 miles too far south - bring it further North and boom.

You can't please some people 

Text book easterly, and that Low early in the run helps a lot.

[Methuselah]

If I'm not mistaken, if this sort of chart verifies () it'll be just what Tamara suggested might happen...?

[snowray]

Still a long shot of course but nice to see the easterly back, lovely to look at.

[Scandinavian High.]

Trend continues to bring some very cold air from east ..

[frosty ground]

 1991 Vs Todays GFS 12z Run

 

[CK1981]

22 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

No, that air is already too warm to begin with, you want air with an arctic origin, coldest direction is northeast 

I disagree! If the air is travelling hundreds of miles over a relatively warm sea, it will be moderated. If the uppers are low and the flow is off the short sea track from the fridged continent, it will definitely result in colder maximum temperatures here.

Also, the coldest uppers often come from Siberia (not the arctic) across the continent and towards us.....in an easterly flow, of course.

 

Edited January 25, 2018 by CK1981

[Seasonality]

About as good as it gets for UK cold in the outer reaches of FI. Also shown in the 00z this morning.

[Daniel*]

8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And just in case y'all blink and missed the first wee snap, here's the start of another one:

Yes please!

Close to the jackpot there for SE England a petty plea ridge be more north . 

[SMU]

The 12z does produce the goods especially for the E/SE but of course as mentioned earlier we would like to see the lower heights further NW-

that said

Theta E charts of 4c over the UK in the last 120 years would probably be less than 10 times

 

with the whole of Northern Europe enveloped in deep cold

S

Edited January 25, 2018 by Steve Murr

[Day 10]

Oh god, back on the path we go...

The pot of gold awaits...

Will we encounter another bridge that is falling apart at the seams???

[N/A]

29 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

Not a snow maker in SW UK I wouldn't think with that high being close by but nevertheless plenty of dry, sunny weather so that's very good news after all the flooding in these areas recently 

No probably not but it does bring in colder air which if timed right, could turn any rain moving in from the Atlantic to snow (transient at least) as it hits the cold block of air. This set up has brought some of our best snow events on the coasts anyway. 

Regarding the flooding, what you said is absolutely true and with yet more rain due this weekend it's going to get a bit worse before it gets better I think.

Edited January 25, 2018 by Dafydd Tomos

[Daniel*]

Coldest weather since December 2010 if GFS 12Z transpired what can go wrong. 

[SLEETY]

23 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Very boring and no Cold insight,

Quote me that if and a very  big IF it verifies at two week away lol

 

least gfs consistent in fl of cold Easterly outbreak,but can flip anytime at that range,long way to go as always regarding uk cold outbreak.

[snowray]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Coldest weather since December 2010 if GFS 12Z transpired what can go wrong. 

Well at least its not at D47............On the 12z the action starts at D10, big improvement!

Edited January 25, 2018 by snowray

[Ice Day]

Lovely FI run. Whilst the best bits are way outside of the reliable timeframe, it is however displaying  something akin to what Glosea is showing, with a Scandi high and easterly flow in early February.  Very tentative positive signs, it could be about to get very busy in here!?

[andymusic]

are we all getting excited with the gfs 12z fI