Model output discussion - mid January

[Nick F]

Looking at the 12z EPS clusters at T+360, around 80% indicating ridging near or over UK, a sizeable 50% with HP to the NE over Scandi, a pretty strong signal there for lack of domination of Atlantic zonality as we go into early Feb.

Not looking particularly mild for the EPS T2m mean for London longer term into early Feb either

Edited January 22, 2018 by Nick F

[cobby]

Ian Fergusson‏Verified account @fergieweather 6m6 minutes ago

 

 

W COUNTRY Likely to see 12-14C across the region on Tues, but such mild blips aside, the potential for some colder conditions to return remains omnipresent in model output through the next 2-4 weeks.

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just been through the GEFS at 192, flatter and don't think we will get the recent stellar sets although they certainly aren't terrible and may still amplify in FI.

They have amplified in FI - whether many will bring in those -10c to 15c runs is another matter but still decent.

[feb1991blizzard]

I will have a Number 20 please.

Edited January 22, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[Allseasons-Si]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I will have a Number 20 please.

The mean not as good as the 12z but still has heights to the NE.

[Man With Beard]

40 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Looking at the 12z EPS clusters at T+360, around 80% indicating ridging near or over UK, a sizeable 50% with HP to the NE over Scandi, a pretty strong signal there for lack of domination of Atlantic zonality as we go into early Feb.

Not looking particularly mild for the EPS T2m mean for London longer term into early Feb either

Hopefully a chance for redemption Nick! They made a bit of a mess of the last NE heights signal, let's hope it was just that period! Funny, when I saw a very tasty outlier a couple of days ago with heights above a Euro trough I had a feeling we might see more of it and indeed a large chunk of the ensembles are going that way right now.

A key thing, as you say, is no Atlantic domination. If the colder clusters come off, we could start thinking about getting through the whole winter with just two weeks (the coming week and the pre Christmas week) of a true south of west flow.

[A.J]

2 hours ago, SN0WM4N said:

November 6th 2010 a D16 GFS chart.

 

Actual

But don't worry those easterlies never happen do they?

for every one T384 chart that verifies, I could probably show you 50 that don't (and to be fair, in the T384 chart shown is pretty dissimiliar to what actually verified....yes an easterly is there on both charts, but certainly to my eyes that's where the similarities end).............in saying that, who knows what Day 16 will bring this time? it's all part of the fun of model watching

[BlackburnChris]

2 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

for every one T384 chart that verifies, I could probably show you 50 that don't (and to be fair, in the T384 chart shown is pretty dissimiliar to what actually verified....yes an easterly is there on both charts, but certainly to my eyes that's where the similarities end).............in saying that, who knows what Day 16 will bring this time? it's all part of the fun of model watching

theres hugh differnces on them 2 charts ... Upstream anyway

 

[Mucka]

The signal is definitely there, just a little too far out to have any confidence in it.

GFS ensembles have shown blocking end of Jan/early Feb for quite some time now but always with scatter and the signal has been slowly pushed back date wise

Perhaps the 18z set are the first to show a more coherent signal for cold with maybe a split emerging?

 

To see as many as 4 members hit the -10 mark in deep FI is quite unusual. 

 

Edited January 23, 2018 by Mucka

[BlackburnChris]

8 minutes ago, Mucka said:

The signal is definitely there, just a little too far out to have any confidence in it.

GFS ensembles have shown blocking end of Jan/early Feb for quite some time now but always with scatter and the signal has been slowly pushed back date wise

Perhaps the 18z set are the first to show a more coherent signal for cold with maybe a split emerging?

 

To see as many as 4 members hit the -10 mark in deep FI is quite unusual. 

 

deff showing a split devolping.... would go in to more detail ... but batt gone on cordless keyboard 

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

morning  all for all coldies in fantasty  world first week in feb  is saying plenty  of  snow  for  the uk !!

[ribster]

6 hours ago, Jason M said:

In fairness whilst they are both easterlies there are considerable differences in the two. Look at Greenland and Scandi fo starters. Easterlies yes, but completely different set ups. 

I think you've missed the point that was being made...

[Chesil View]

7 hours ago, ICE COLD said:

Who said easterlies don't happen ? And yer they do show easterlies but there completely different set one just has an Atlantic ridge and the other has a cut off Greenland high . 

Actually one has a head a Greenie high and the other a Scandie high but the point is they are both high latitude blocking and it is the hlb that verified at 384 from Nov 6th 2010.

[That ECM]

another interesting day 10 chart 

[bluearmy]

Ec and gfs remain far apart by day 7/8. Some gefs members are headed more troughy but no more than 20%. 

as far as the hemispheric pattern is concerned (ec46), I wonder if we are headed back to a broad rerun of late Nov/first half Dec? 

[Ali1977]

13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ec and gfs remain far apart by day 7/8. Some gefs members are headed more troughy but no more than 20%. 

as far as the hemispheric pattern is concerned (ec46), I wonder if we are headed back to a broad rerun of late Nov/first half Dec? 

The METO long range sounds similar to Nov/early Dec as you mention so maybe. Although the high setting up over Europe seems much stronger so will depend if the direction of travel of that. If we can get something from the East, mid to late Feb is a good time to have it I wouldn’t thought when the continent is at its coldest .

[MR EXTREMES]

Is the ECM on another garden path episode.

JMA last night shows similar.

Would of posted ECM 240 but it won't let me.

But the ECM would be the best of the bunch.

northeasterly yes please.

 

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Is the ECM on another garden path episode.

JMA last night shows similar.

Would of posted ECM 240 but it won't let me.

But the ECM would be the best of the bunch.

northeasterly yes please.

 

The ecm is playing with broadly the same evolution, run to run. The detail not really relevant at this range. With gfs so far away from this, I wouldn’t be over analysing just yet

[LightningLover]

 

8 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

Mother Nature is doing her best to save the uk from a cold spell again ??

 

That chart hurts to look at. all that potential, so close yet so far...

[Daniel*]

I thought there would be more mention of ECM this morning, it’s really good in FI.

[Summer Sun]

No UKMO extended this morning I'm afraid it should return once the federal government shutdown end's

[Decemberof2010]

11 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I thought there would be more mention of ECM this morning, it’s really good in FI.

I'm not sure I can walk up another garden path!

[Snowman.]

8 hours ago, ICE COLD said:

Who said easterlies don't happen ? And yer they do show easterlies but there completely different set one just has an Atlantic ridge and the other has a cut off Greenland high . 

You said yourself that easterlies in la la land never make it. I know the charts look different but it remains the same. The model picked up the low g wave pattern then as it counted down to t0 it changed. A classic reverse case is that of Feb 2009 they had PM airflow in the extended range and by T0 easterly. 

The weather chooses but let me ask you this would you rather see zonal mess in FI or easterlies popping up here and there in FI? 

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

8 hours ago, cobby said:

Ian Fergusson‏Verified account @fergieweather 6m6 minutes ago

 

 

W COUNTRY Likely to see 12-14C across the region on Tues, but such mild blips aside, the potential for some colder conditions to return remains omnipresent in model output through the next 2-4 weeks.

Similar weather is also forecast in parts of South & West Wales today too despite the cloudy skies before it turns cooler again from tomorrow, cold enough for more hail showers by Thursday so a very short mild blip. 

Great to hear there's more colder conditions forecast for our areas during February and with the sea temperatures almost at their lowest by then, we might finally end up with a dusting of snow. 

Edited January 23, 2018 by Draig Goch

[nick sussex]

No sign of the UKMO this morning which is a shame as we can’t see whether that backs the ECM over the USA.

The divergence between the ECM and GFS starts relatively early between T120hrs and T144 hrs with the former taking some southern stream shortwave energy north this amplifies over the eastern USA.

The GFS not interested and also fails to split energy in the Atlantic by T144hrs.

The ECM is very similar to last nights output indeed better upstream later , the issue though is something we had in December in terms of where exactly low heights set up over mainland Europe.

Not sure anyone’s in the mood for another easterly which doesn’t deliver some deeper cold. 

Anyway that’s well into FI, we don’t have agreement earlier on so will have to wait and see there.

 

 

Edited January 23, 2018 by nick sussex