Model output discussion - mid January

[nick sussex]

Latest NOAA update re the MJO.

They expect it to move into the West Pacific by week two.

However there could be some modulation of the amplitude and speed depending on other factors like Rossby waves etc.

Interestingly they say the MJO currently  teleconnects well with the extra tropical pattern over the CONUS this gives hope that it could continue to do so as it moves into the more favourable colder phases for Western Europe.

[bluearmy]

Given the gamut of interesting gefs runs from the 12z, the pub run will do well not to be worth watching in fi - having said that, I’m off to bed! 

[Jason M]

Very consistent from GFS at the moment into FI. Run to run consistency is as good as I've seen it for a long time.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I really do feel that the curtains are slowly beginning to close on this winter. It's been better than the last few but that really isn't saying much to be honest. A fair assessment would be along the lines of a moderate improvement but must try harder next time! 

The middle one (the most important) at least has a low anomaly to the south so a crumb of comfort, I think its worth watching to see it these GEFS are repeated but we need the eps to cotton on soon.

[blizzard81]

Even the pub run can't deliver. Again too much energy in the northern arm and the south east mediterranean yet again looking forward to the siberian express! 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I feel the 00z runs are ‘crucial’ for the rest of winter.....

 

BFTP

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

Even the pub run can't deliver. Again too much energy in the northern arm and the south east mediterranean yet again looking forward to the siberian express! 

Yes - was just about to reply to BA's post but you've already stolen my thunder.

[Nick F]

34 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EC weeklies tonight don't look so bad from this perspective, for week 3 at least anyway, could be worse

 

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The middle one (the most important) at least has a low anomaly to the south so a crumb of comfort, I think its worth watching to see it these GEFS are repeated but we need the eps to cotton on soon.

Absolutely my friend. I totally agree

[Tim Bland]

Mother Nature is doing her best to save the uk from a cold spell again ??

 

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, Nick F said:

EC weeklies tonight don't look so bad from this perspective, for week 3 at least anyway, could be worse

 

All looks too topplerish for my liking. Yes, it won't be mild but this will not deliver for most. 

Edited January 22, 2018 by blizzard81

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Nick F said:

EC weeklies tonight don't look so bad from this perspective, for week 3 at least anyway, could be worse

 

Looks a bit GFS OPish though Nick - just too much strength in the N arm - PV just too far South East to get the high to influence enough to deliver the Easterly.

[Guest]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

Mother Nature is doing her best to save the uk from a cold spell again ??

 

Europe in the freezer again  

[Jason M]

8 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Even the pub run can't deliver. Again too much energy in the northern arm and the south east mediterranean yet again looking forward to the siberian express! 

In a funny sort of way, I would rather not be seeing run after run of top notch easterlies because no chart is ever going to verify at days 12-16. I'm happy to keep seeing near misses at the moment. I mentioned that I thought 15-20% chance last night, but seeing todays developments I'll nudge that up a little to 25%.

The 384 chart shows where I think were headed with the mid atlantic 'bowling ball' high.

 

 

 

Edited January 22, 2018 by Jason M

[Tim Bland]

Nice ending though 

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Jason M said:

In a funny sort of way, I would rather not be seeing run after run of top notch easterlies because no chart is ever going to verify at days 12-16. I'm happy to keep seeing near misses at the moment. I mentioned that I thought 15-20% chance last night, but seeing todays developments I'll nudge that up a little to 25%.

I know what you are getting at but it very rarely works that way lol. I hope you are right though

[ICE COLD]

3 minutes ago, Jason M said:

In a funny sort of way, I would rather not be seeing run after run of top notch easterlies because no chart is ever going to verify at days 12-16. I'm happy to keep seeing near misses at the moment. I mentioned that I thought 15-20% chance last night, but seeing todays developments I'll nudge that up a little to 25%.

You just hit the nail on the head . People moaning it's not brining in freezing easterlys at 300+ hours that ant  ever gonna verify anyway . So there's no point looking for that . When do easterlys show up in la la land and count down to T0hrs . Absolutely never in the uk . Just trends at the min and trending the right way . 

[danthetan]

14 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

All looks too topplerish for my liking. Yes, it won't be mild but this just will not deliver for most. 

Im sure this post is regarding the eastern US. Although I would like to think he means europe

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

You just hit the nail on the head . People moaning it's not brining in freezing easterlys at 300+ hours that ant  ever gonna verify anyway . So there's no point looking for that . When do easterlys show up in la la land and count down to T0hrs . Absolutely never in the uk . Just trends at the min and trending the right way . 

Yes but you want the pattern further North to start off with not further south, these usually correct southwards not Northwards.

[Snowman.]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

You just hit the nail on the head . People moaning it's not brining in freezing easterlys at 300+ hours that ant  ever gonna verify anyway . So there's no point looking for that . When do easterlys show up in la la land and count down to T0hrs . Absolutely never in the uk . Just trends at the min and trending the right way . 

November 6th 2010 a D16 GFS chart.

 

Actual

But don't worry those easterlies never happen do they?

[igloo]

16 minutes ago, Jason M said:

In a funny sort of way, I would rather not be seeing run after run of top notch easterlies because no chart is ever going to verify at days 12-16. I'm happy to keep seeing near misses at the moment. I mentioned that I thought 15-20% chance last night, but seeing todays developments I'll nudge that up a little to 25%.

The 384 chart shows where I think were headed with the mid atlantic 'bowling ball' high.

 

 

 

Well i wont complain if we get more of these mid atlantic HP just like we have got all through winter so far they have delivered plenty of snow and ice days for many i have had snow lying since the end of november in this area the uk doesnt stop just at london you no

[ICE COLD]

15 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

November 6th 2010 a D16 GFS chart.

 

Actual

But don't worry those easterlies never happen do they?

Who said easterlies don't happen ? And yer they do show easterlies but there completely different set one just has an Atlantic ridge and the other has a cut off Greenland high . 

Edited January 22, 2018 by ICE COLD
Added

[Jason M]

10 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

November 6th 2010 a D16 GFS chart.

 

Actual

But don't worry those easterlies never happen do they?

In fairness whilst they are both easterlies there are considerable differences in the two. Look at Greenland and Scandi fo starters. Easterlies yes, but completely different set ups. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just been through the GEFS at 192, flatter and don't think we will get the recent stellar sets although they certainly aren't terrible and may still amplify in FI.

[Allseasons-Si]

The AO going for a tanking,not seen that in a while,the NAO is trending down too at the latter stages

the gfs/ecm means at 240,the ecm is further west with the hp cell with perhaps allowing a PM flow

but i have to comment on the gfs mean at 384,yes 384,cos thats a very good mean that far out with winds from the east,it would be interesting if that theme continues

and last one from me,i will be keeping an eye on the wind direction over the next few days as the diagram below shows(black arrow) a few ens are starting to show that  direction taking place,and will be looking to see how prelonged they will go(black circle),only recently this has been showing and the last few days where showing them to run straight through the middle.

are we going to have the third bite and the siberian express stops here this time

 

 

Edited January 22, 2018 by Allseasons-si