Model output discussion - mid January

[Scandinavian High.]

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

here is the graph,so a few very cold runs

Yes there some very cold runs you never no we could see bitter easterly with thunder snow blizzards and that would be proper winter weather...

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

12 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Often, but certainly not always. We still have a good third of winter proper to go. Many of the best snow events here in the SE occurred in the month of February, so I’m not overly pessimistic about a properly cold and snowy episode happening. 

Exactly, same can be said for SW UK including areas near the W & S coasts of Wales as the sea temperatures reach their coldest. 

[SLEETY]

Nice gfs fl again,with cold easterlies,maybe a trend ?

[bluearmy]

Didn’t take long for a gfs op to find the theme from the week 2 eps mean 

[Man With Beard]

The ECM ensembles are really struggling with something at the moment.

For instance, looking around 31 Jan/1 Feb, originally the favoured call was a height rises to our east and possibly north (this was when in the D13-D15 period).

Then more recently, in the D10-D12 period, this got rebranded as a flatter height rise pushing into S and C Europe, or with a strong trough approaching the UK.

Now we've hit D9, we have a complete turnaround from the D13-D15 position, with Atlantic heights yet again favoured - here's last night's and this morning's cluster sets:

   

That's a really incredible turnaround.

The cynic, of course, might say this is evidence the ensembles are useless. That would be unfair - the D11-D15 clusters have been in the ball-park on the majority of occasions this year. But I do feel the evidence is stacking up that the ECM has a problem with height rises to the east in the longer range. @Tamara's comments about it overdoing the MJO are definitely ringing in my ears this morning, as what she said a few days ago when the height rises were first advertised are proving true. 

Also, what is interesting this winter is that Euro heights, so often underdone in FI, are being frequently overdone and it looks like this might be the case again for the turn of the month.

I'm not saying the GEFS is any better (!) but, actually, on this occasion, it has been a better guide in the T240-T360 for this period. (*IF the pattern follows through as currently being advertised of course!!)

Interestingly, this morning's clusters for the turn of the month seem to me a better platform for a NE height rise in the days after. There have been some sensational outliers on the EPS in the past couple of days, and you can see the similarity between this morning's cluster 3 at T288 and the current GFS 06Z - this would seem a reasonably logical route of progression IMO:

  

 

Edited January 22, 2018 by Man With Beard

[booferking]

I would say 3/4 of the GEFS 06z goes for some sort of easterly or Greenland/Iceland high best set by far.

Edited January 22, 2018 by booferking

[feb1991blizzard]

To say the GEFS hold some interest is an understatement.

[Seasonality]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

To say the GEFS hold some interest is an understatement.

Indeed, just had a quick flick through and plenty of options for a cold easterly off a frigid continent.

Edited January 22, 2018 by Seasonality

[Eskimo]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

To say the GEFS hold some interest is an understatement.

Yes, about 60-70% go with something colder from the E, N or NE. 30% have an easterly component. 

Edited January 22, 2018 by PerfectStorm

[karlos1983]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

To say the GEFS hold some interest is an understatement.

Yep, ens looking much more promising also

Best I’ve seen for a while 

[bluearmy]

The 06z gefs have promised more than the subsequent suites have delivered recently so maybe best to put the salopettes on hold - however, they do fit in the envelope provided for by the broad ens pattern as discussed 

[stewfox]

42 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Yep, ens looking much more promising also

Best I’ve seen for a while 

Yes -10c 850s over Kent. What could go wrong ?

GFS 06Z for 2/2

Edited January 22, 2018 by stewfox

[nick sussex]

Did someone at NW hack the 06hrs GEFS!

Quite a marked change upto T240hrs, and for the better in terms of coldies hopes.

Lets hope this isn't a rogue set and we can build on this tonight.

Its really all about that jet cutting back sw towards the UK and quite a few GEFS show that.

Edited January 22, 2018 by nick sussex

[jules216]

Intrestingly, ECMWF is steadily trying to orbit MJO into phase 7 as we enter February, which would support heights to our NE and if we can somehow not loose the amplitude and get to phase 8, that would hold great interest and the blocking migh re-locate to our NW with below aver. temperatures, it is a big ask, as GFS not so keen on passing phase 6

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Nice downward trend from late January, trend is our friend 

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

2 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

Nice downward trend from late January, trend is our friend 

Ens for south yorkshire

[Purga]

2 hours ago, SLEETY said:

here is the graph,so a few very cold runs

And a further shift in the right direction with the 06z suite

The T2M chart is worth a gander as well showing some decent frost potential for early Feb

not to mention the snow potential

Edited January 22, 2018 by Purga

[karlos1983]

Big volcanic erruotion in the Philippines today... maybe for another thread but sure I read somewhere this can afftect weather patterns if it’s a big enough eruption? 

Thats not a straw clutching effort either lol. 

Edited January 22, 2018 by karlos1983

[Duane S.]

I've had very little time over the past few days to spend any time on charts etc so I've only managed the odd glance at the odd op and been suitably underwhelmed.

Then, I've pulled up the last 2 sets of GEFS and WOW, this simply does not happen without a very strong signal(s)...

I did last post a few days back ago that the background signals indicated to me that around the second week of Feb was our next realistic opportunity of something a bit special, but this, this is a real eyebrow raiser!

I have my concerns however and my concerns are simple. Are the MJO forecasts simply far too optimisitic? Is the convection going to re-emerge into the Pacific as amplified as they are currently, up against the backdrop of the Nina ?

I guess the strat warming is also having a bearing on this as well.

Here we go again then!

 

[comet]

Stratosphere forcing along with respondent MJO phase calling the shots from mid range onwards. End of Jan onwards into February big, big change in the weather as I have been saying for some time now. All other teleconnects like playing cards,will fall into line.

[Daniel*]

Coldest set of extended GEFS I’ve seen so far this winter for London actually an impressive amount of very cold options. Good to see this momentum as evident yesterday has not toned down rather opposite.

[bluearmy]

11 minutes ago, comet said:

Stratosphere forcing along with respondent MJO phase calling the shots from mid range onwards. End of Jan onwards into February big, big change in the weather as I have been saying for some time now. All other teleconnects like playing cards,will fall into line.

can you expand on the strat forcing and how it will influence the pattern ?

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, jules216 said:

Intrestingly, ECMWF is steadily trying to orbit MJO into phase 7 as we enter February, which would support heights to our NE and if we can somehow not loose the amplitude and get to phase 8, that would hold great interest and the blocking migh re-locate to our NW with below aver. temperatures, it is a big ask, as GFS not so keen on passing phase 6

Maybe CFSv2 is not unworthy of consideration for once week 3 an extensive strong HLB to N/NE.

 

[ArHu3]

59 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Coldest set of extended GEFS I’ve seen so far this winter for London actually an impressive amount of very cold options. Good to see this momentum as evident yesterday has not toned down rather opposite.

Uppers between 0 and - 10C, more than 10 days out,  the bar is now set that low? That will give surface temperatures of around 0-4 degrees, just seasonal cold sh wweather 

Edited January 22, 2018 by ArHu3

[karlos1983]

14 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Uppers between 0 and - 10C, more than 10 days out,  the bar is now set that low? That will give surface temperatures of around 0-4 degrees, just seasonal cold sh wweather 

I’ll happily take a punt I think  

sounds perfectly fine to me