Model output discussion - mid January

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I was pretty taken back actually I have noticed some eye candy in GEFS for February for roughly a week now. Not a bad trend perhaps gathering pace? For mild rut to fall apart, as we enter the final third of the winter. I can’t see mild weather persisting for more than 10-14 days. ^Bastardi is a wx ‘legend’ I like the guy.  

, 

 

My guess is probably that there will remain (on and off) some potentially record breaking cold just across the North sea for the rest of the season tantalisingly just one trigger shortwave away from bringing it here.

[bluearmy]

That ec runner showing again - a foot of snow across the midlands !  Up and down like a tarts draws but consistently showing 

[Stuie]

Arctic high, Azores ridge, cold sinking into Iberia, there is a Bastardi for you...

 

[nick sussex]

The outputs fall into two camps the ECM and UKMO likely to split energy upstream much earlier versus the GFS and GEM who don’t split that around the T168hrs timeframe.

This would then allow the high an escape route not boxed into the south.

It’s quite an important difference so we’ll see over the next few runs which has called this correctly.

 

[Fozfoster]

20 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That ec runner showing again - a foot of snow across the midlands !  Up and down like a tarts draws but consistently showing 

Like this blue. ?

[Thunderywintrysnow]

43 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That ec runner showing again - a foot of snow across the midlands !  Up and down like a tarts draws but consistently showing 

Surely this is a sign it's going happen look closely at the zoomed in picture snowshill??

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended keeps the milder set-up

[bluearmy]

The eps again drop a low anomoly into Europe through week 2. The ridge following on - that must mean a chance of an easterly flow at some point as the euro low would stop the high sinking. The control follows this route - perhaps we will see a gfs op do so at some point over the next day or so. 

[Guest]

evening all, not been in here for a while and totally out of sink with whats happening, been a wonderful week up here in Scotland and I see that many other parts of the UK have done well from this zonal spell, all in all I think the models handled it rather well and I'm sure its going to be an interesting period of model watching over the coming weeks and for those of you that are still to see any snaw this winter I'm sure your time will come if not just do what I did and move to a place that will give you the snaw fix you require. I'm shall enjoy the next few days looking at the model output and seeing if and when the next cold spell is coming.

[frosty ground]

57 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended keeps the milder set-up

For England and Wales only

[ANYWEATHER]

24 minutes ago, Thunderywintrysnow said:

Surely this is a sign it's going happen look closely at the zoomed in picture snowshill??

LolsI live in this area and the chances of this happening is second to none! The battle between the gfs and ecm continue with a somewhat milder blip , then turning colder by the end of the week...The outer reaches of model output that's day eight to ten show gfs and ecm strongly disagreeing with gfs showing mild ecm showing cold , Who Will Win?  

[Hull snow]

Is this slider for the midland showing a block to the ne ??

[Weather Observer]

This has so far been a “traditional “ winter with all snow episodes midlands northwards. Living on the south coast for many years I remember the disappointment well. But it has not been the inexorably mobile Atlantic based dross of the last few years. Traditional winters often produced a decent cold spell, normally from the east, in February as I remember it rather than January. January only seemed to deliver in the more severe winters.

The Ecm 10 day chart and the mean offers, tantalisingly, the prospect of something interesting. Well, I don’t know how the rest of you keep warm in winter- I do it by looking for charts loaded with ice and snow. Off we go again!?

[Tim Bland]

Can someone post day 10 (ECM) mean or a link please ? 

[SMU]

I commented yesterday that the profile of heights north of the UK on the ECM was marked very unusual with a severe lack of ‘substantial’ low pressures filling the void-

The 2 12z ECMs back to back-

Today’s first-

showing more emphasis on the Atlantic high-

The mean does support some ridging but not as much as the operational

plus Its day 9- ( moving on from yesterday’s day 10 )

So pretty interesting stuff worthy of keeping an eye on...

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Can someone post day 10 (ECM) mean or a link please ? 

wonder what the D15 looks like though.

[feb1991blizzard]

18 minutes ago, Hull snow said:

Is this slider for the midland showing a block to the ne ??

No.

[sea swim]

Tamara, have spent some months trying to grasp what you say in ways that’d make sense to me. This last post was brilliant, I get it(ish)now! - about overviewing the overall interactions of operations in remote strategic departments that affect distant interacting agency elsewhere (obviously!) - not serrendipity but still highly nuanced/complex - strategy rather than just looking at the activities and the business performance in mid-term forecasts/projections of a couple/few regional departments.. 

will improve understanding hereafter..

[booferking]

GEFS have been picking up a signal for a -NOA going into Feb & ECM was having none of it maybe the ECM is coming around to this idea with its last few runs.

[Hull snow]

24 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No.

Will we stay cold after the slider ?

[bluearmy]

17 minutes ago, booferking said:

GEFS have been picking up a signal for a -NOA going into Feb & ECM was having none of it maybe the ECM is coming around to this idea with its last few runs.

I don’t think either model is that clear on what it thinks re the NAO

 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Hull snow said:

Will we stay cold after the slider ?

Just personal opinion but on that chart the high looks too rounded to me, but the slider might not even verify anyway, Stav Danaos mentioned mild week 2. There are a lot of GEFS members that promise cold (and quite severely so as well) after week 2 and with the trough dropping on ECM the extended outlook is not without interest but too far away to have any confidence in yet - could do with a  good EC32 tomorrow.

[bluearmy]

The gefs couldn’t be more solid on the ridge as they leave high res at day 8. The eps less keen. Wonder which will be right 

[feb1991blizzard]

Nearer on the 18z op to one of those 12z GEFS spectaculars.

[feb1991blizzard]

Good strat run as well, top down warming meets wave 2 upwelling.