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Model output discussion - mid January


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

@Snowy Hibbo - bastardi had a more than decent stab at the Dec/jan eastern USA bitter cold ahead of the winter. he may indeed be wrong to see the MJO getting into 8 given Nina base state but a broad repeat of the overall hemispheric pattern can’t be ruled out. I would like to see some proper cold established over mainland Europe in case we see repeating pattern downstream.

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gfs12 next week we have a mix of some mild days and colder days. Coldest looks to be Friday while the mildest on Tuesday although it looks unlikely to be as mild as it was today when some western areas reached 13-14C despite the rain

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
4 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

GFS 12z once again shows a settled end to January with lows tracking to the north of the UK  thanks to the jet stream being further north than recently

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Unless I'm reading the jet stream diagram wrong it looks like it's powering through us?

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The UKMO different upstream from the GFS at T144hrs , it’s possible the former could split that energy in the Atlantic allowing the high to be pulled further west and north later.

 

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
2 hours ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

What a joke, that Bastardi guy. There's no chance MJO is hitting Phase 8. Niña base state will block that. MJO Phase 2-3 is totally plausible, like it did for the current cycle. But Bastardi is just throwing around wild MJO and other sub seasonal predictions, that we has no proof for. One of the cons of twitter popularity. 

That seems a bit harsh considering he is just commenting on what the latest ECM monthly shows. Surely the model will have 'considered' Nina base state parameters when the algorithms churned out the forecast?

EMON_phase_51m_full.gif

 

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
6 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

No not quite as its between northern Scotland and Iceland hence the low pressure to the south of Iceland and high across southern UK and down into France 

Ah ok fair enough so we are just looking at the red bit of the jet stream forecast.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
10 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

If this GFS 12z is correct, we can look forward to some really decent weather into the start of February with the lows being kept away. Another awesome model run :good:

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Certainly not settled, Remembering it's out at 300hrs.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
19 minutes ago, Thunderywintrysnow said:

Not nice calling a professional paid  meteorologist a joke just because your teleconnections says otherwise they have been wrong before and will be wrong again that's the same man who predicted the eastern USA big freeze over a month before it happened nobody is right or wrong until Feb is over play nice.

To be fair, Bastardi is a massive cold ramper and I'm pretty sure he's gone for "major Europe and UK cold" every year for the past 5 or 6 winters now. I agree with you on the teleconnections side though, still waiting for this "Easterly" the experts keep touting about. You know, the one we've been chasing since the second week of December or so. 

Looking at the actual models, not very inspiring at all if it's cold and snow you're after, looks rather unsettled to me so wouldn't be surprised to see some flood issues in the next week or 2. Yuck.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Danny* said:

To be fair, Bastardi is a massive cold ramper and I'm pretty sure he's gone for "major Europe and UK cold" every year for the past 5 or 6 winters now. I agree with you on the teleconnections side though, still waiting for this "Easterly" the experts keep touting about. You know, the one we've been chasing since the second week of December or so. 

Looking at the actual models, not very inspiring at all if it's cold and snow you're after, looks rather unsettled to me so wouldn't be surprised to see some flood issues in the next week or 2. Yuck.

It doesn't look that unsettled for you down south.

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Posted
  • Location: Derry
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Derry
1 minute ago, Danny* said:

To be fair, Bastardi is a massive cold ramper and I'm pretty sure he's gone for "major Europe and UK cold" every year for the past 5 or 6 winters now. I agree with you on the teleconnections side though, still waiting for this "Easterly" the experts keep touting about. You know, the one we've been chasing since the second week of December or so. 

Looking at the actual models, not very inspiring at all if it's cold and snow you're after, looks rather unsettled to me so wouldn't be surprised to see some flood issues in the next week or 2. Yuck.

Yep i know he is a cold ramper and got some wrong some right like most meteorologists will do in there career but to call him a Joke just because  teleconnections state otherwise i just don't agree with that one bit.

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
Just now, Thunderywintrysnow said:

Yep i know he is a cold ramper and got some wrong some right like most meteorologists will do in there career but to call him a Joke just because  teleconnections state otherwise i just don't agree with that one bit.

You do realise Bastardi himself is quoting the exact same modeled teleconnections? Its model output ultimately. Bastardi quotes one aspect of it(MJO), either purposely or, perhaps through his own lack of knowledge about the GWO, he doesn't mention other aspects and what would be needed to overcome La Nina forcing. A few here will attempt to give the different paths that can be taken and will then mention what they see as most likely and the outside chance route.

He ramps, many do. But also keep in mind his money maker is calling it for the US. He is often a bit free and loose with Europe comments.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ayton, Berwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Ice and snow, heat and sun!
  • Location: Ayton, Berwickshire
2 minutes ago, Thunderywintrysnow said:

Yep i know he is a cold ramper and got some wrong some right like most meteorologists will do in there career but to call him a Joke just because  teleconnections state otherwise i just don't agree with that one bit.

Professional meteorologists should not be identified as cold rampers, or any other sort of rampers. It would be better if they remain objective in their assessments, otherwise their professional standing suffers. Call me an old cynic, but it makes me suspect that the reason for ramping is that it drives site traffic, a la (notvery)exactaweather...

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Posted
  • Location: Derry
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Derry

Okay guys the post was directed at the rudeness (ie) JOKE at the start of the post that is what i was trying to highlight please move on from this its glogging up the thread lets move on.:)

Edited by Thunderywintrysnow
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, Yozzer said:

Professional meteorologists should not be identified as cold rampers, or any other sort of rampers. It would be better if they remain objective in their assessments, otherwise their professional standing suffers. Call me an old cynic, but it makes me suspect that the reason for ramping is that it drives site traffic, a la (notvery)exactaweather...

What? Even when they ramp - year on year on year?

I've been on here since 2003, and in all that time JB's ramps have only been right on about 3 occasions...? Not that JB's ramps are anything to do with what the models are saying? 

And - anywho -  aren't Piers Corbyn and James Madden also 'professional' meteorologists?:shok:

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The GEFS are very good albeit well outside the reliable, over half (perhaps well over), either bring in a potent cold spell or are about to at the end, if the run would have gone on to say 450, there would have been a handful of flatliners between -10c and -15c, this the best but there are a good few crackers.

gensnh-3-1-384_avu8.png

I was pretty taken back actually I have noticed some eye candy in GEFS for February for roughly a week now. Not a bad trend perhaps gathering pace? For mild rut to fall apart, as we enter the final third of the winter. I can’t see mild weather persisting for more than 10-14 days. ^Bastardi is a wx ‘legend’ I like the guy. :) 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
23 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The GEFS are very good albeit well outside the reliable, over half (perhaps well over), either bring in a potent cold spell or are about to at the end, if the run would have gone on to say 450, there would have been a handful of flatliners between -10c and -15c, this the best but there are a good few crackers.

gensnh-3-1-384_avu8.png

GEFS were much better than I expected.  It all hangs on whether the La Nina forcing doesn't cancel out the MJO trying to push into 7 and 8.

We're a good week away from knowing the answer to that. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

GEFS were much better than I expected.  It all hangs on whether the La Nina forcing doesn't cancel out the MJO trying to push into 7 and 8.

We're a good week away from knowing the answer to that. 

Yes that's the problem, from what ive read it does look like it will although I'm just hoping that there is more confidence in the MJO overriding it than currently is being let on, hoping that it is fear of being slagged off on here that is making them wait for something more concrete.

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