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Model output discussion - mid January


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
36 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

Poor agreement between ECM and GEFS means for the end of January,at least for the UK,with ECM going for deep troughing.

 

Certainly hasn't been a boring winter.

 

ECM..EDH101-240.GIF.thumb.png.d0ac193c8bf02f88e078d13954df1257.pngGEFS..gensnh-21-5-240.thumb.png.0c3299f754fe33c543184995dffe4a91.png

The development on the eps for troughing into Europe by day 10 and beyond is new. The clusters will tell us a bit more as to whether there are any more intriguing options possible end week 2 on that run

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GFS 6z A lovely strong area of high pressure pushing up from the south bringing decent weather to get out and about next weekend:clap:

image.png

 

Strong high 1040mb approaching SW England to end the weekend, looking promising for a prolonged settled period of weather to see out out January. 

image.png

Edited by Draig Goch
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Into next Monday and pressure starts to fall slowly. In the north it turns windier but the high remains across southern & central UK & Ireland with light winds for many. 

image.png

 

We then end up a bit more unsettled as the high drifts east but already out west another high is building in so could turn out to be a very short spell of unsettled weather 

image.png

 

And that high (1030mb across the SW) does indeed build in. IMO, it's a superb run this morning, so nice to see the end of this cold, wet and frequently windy weather is on its way soon. 

image.png

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
1 hour ago, Draig Goch said:

 

Strong high 1040mb approaching SW England to end the weekend, looking promising for a prolonged settled period of weather to see out out January

image.png

Depends what model you look at, EC doesn't look settled to see out January! 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
On 18/01/2018 at 23:23, Steve Murr said:

Updated JMA shows Sunday’s front sharpening up over the UK perhaps allowing a bit of the S word further south...

18z V 12z

184543C9-98F3-45DF-BED5-1F50BCF6E162.thumb.png.7a82a5208f6cd8db40d6083262f20c91.pngB79541B5-E7A8-4177-978B-0A9CB5F546E1.thumb.png.8a05dd535b5aff532ea517bcfa5a236b.png

You was correct steve... Although it's to wet to settle it's nice to see this model was on the money. It's snowing outside as I'm typing this message. Shame it's only tempory. 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
22 hours ago, Dancerwithwings said:

The HIRLAM 0.1, AROME and the ICON was on town with APERGE then.........................Or are they on to something :)

hirlamuk-1-29-0_mbv7.pngaromehd-1-32-0_sgp6.pngiconeu_uk1-1-28-0_xdh8.png

These smaller so called models can give themselves a pat on the back when some of the main models had this frontal snow a lot further north today

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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
5 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

The models have been poor for today! They said it would rain but....

7C42DB70-1E38-40B2-9B2C-6B644321F084.thumb.jpeg.c44ba737f3041de4c7d4a098e6d84beb.jpeg

The rains due to come in behind the snow, already turned across Northern England, so good look keeping that snow much longer.

 

Anyway the rest of the winter looks pretty naff at the minute.

 

GFS goes for slight warming this next week, followed by absolutely vile end to January and start to February. Looking at 10 degrees in the highlands!

 

Netweather GFS Image

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire

Isn’t there the potential for the predicted high to drag a lot of cloud into the circulation? I hope not as a clear and crisp high would be a nice change!

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
31 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Isn’t there the potential for the predicted high to drag a lot of cloud into the circulation? I hope not as a clear and crisp high would be a nice change!

Yes, that is why I hope the ECM is nearer to the mark than the GFS.

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

Just for fun but the ECM produces a snow event days 9 and 10 for eastern parts of Northern Ireland and southern Scotland.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
16 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Just for fun but the ECM produces a snow event days 9 and 10 for eastern parts of Northern Ireland and southern Scotland.

Well I think it is more on the money so it may not be just for fun.  As we have seen many times this winter two big models at odds with each other.  Maybe some blending or maybe more strengthening of either scenario dragging the other model in the right direction.  Seeing as the big differences are 5-7 days down the line then I think we won’t see which for a few days yet.

 

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Can we just clarify that the ecm op has been saying it would snow on today’s front for at least the past 5 days now. We don’t see what ukmo says at the surface and gfs ..... what’s the point re any detail.

the high res modelling has also picked up the snowfall once it’s come within its remit. 

The ecm op does produce a runner at day 9/10 across n england/n Ireland. The control does the same. Yesterday’s control showed this feature across the midlands. A long way out and likely not to exist come verification but now we’ve seen it on a run, let’s see how often it repeats over the next few days. 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Latter stages of GFS 06Z were interesting big falls of snow potential historically the sort that does very well for SW England. That’s how we tend to see the snowiest cold spells in UK some trough disruption negative tilted Atlantic trough goes ‘under’ supported by shallow heights can go on and on. 

F953956C-CB2B-42BF-AB81-3751DF31CEAF.thumb.png.3488316ccbeafc8dbedd3d40ed5c3324.png443B6BFF-5D0F-4984-BD24-57F0CA8344CD.thumb.png.1df95e155f299b9d77de72014af00952.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
1 hour ago, Deep Snow please said:

The rains due to come in behind the snow, already turned across Northern England, so good look keeping that snow much longer.

 

Anyway the rest of the winter looks pretty naff at the minute.

 

GFS goes for slight warming this next week, followed by absolutely vile end to January and start to February. Looking at 10 degrees in the highlands!

 

Netweather GFS Image

 

 

What model do you have access too in order to come out with a statement like the rest of winter looks naf? ? setting yourself up there! Still almost half of winter still remains 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

What model do you have access too in order to come out with a statement like the rest of winter looks naf? ? setting yourself up there! Still almost half of winter still remains 

Could just do what many others (Piers Corbyn instantly comes to mind?) are wont to do: rewrite their 'forecasts' as-and-when the models change, and blame it all on some hocus-pocus so-called 'space weather'?:D

I take it Alpha Centauri has been behaving itself of late?:santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

It looks like the GEFS in particular was over-weakening the MJO signal .

It had originally had that going into phase 4 and then the COD.

The ECM has better MJO verification and given this currently  seems like our only real chance to shuffle up the NH pattern then that might be the model which will be first to pick up any changes .

Although nothing came of it in terms of forward evolution around T120hrs hrs on both the GFS 06 hrs run aswell as the earlier ECM run low heights began to lift from the n/ne, we do see the Pacific ridge moving north into the Arctic and that split in those deeper low heights there.

 

 

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Could just do what many others (Piers Corbyn instantly comes to mind?) are wont to do: rewrite their 'forecasts' as-and-when the models change, and blame it all on some hocus-pocus so-called 'space weather'?:D

I take it Alpha Centauri has been behaving itself of late?:santa-emoji:

ahh... but spaceweather is not all "hocus-pocus" pete. its a scientific fact that solar output affects our weather. we tend to get colder winters during solar minimum (think 2009 and 2010) and we are just about to enter the next one....

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