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Model output discussion - mid January


Paul
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14 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

Hints of much warmer 850mb temperatures across the USA after a prolonged bitterly cold period, could that finally allow a decent widespread cold snap/period for Western Europe as we head into February??? There's hopes 

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Oh yes! Now if that happens without a strong jet barrelling the lows across us maybe just maybe we could start the building blocks for a cold February here in the south with hopefully a dusting of snow at the very least :clap:

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image.png

Edited by Dafydd Tomos
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
8 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Which app are you using? 

Looks like the meteociel app ?

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
10 minutes ago, Dafydd Tomos said:

Oh yes! Now if that happens without a strong jet barrelling the lows across us maybe just maybe we could start the building blocks for a cold February here in the south with hopefully a dusting of snow at the very least :clap:

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It’s the differential that promotes the strong jet so a warm esb and a cold Greenland area will still promote a strong jet upstream of us. 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
18 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Which app are you using? 

Meteociel have there own app

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
8 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

Meteociel

I figured it out, it's the ios version, it looks better than the android version with controls on the bottom and a menu ?

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Pretty meh set of ens if colds what you’re after 

21513CEC-58A0-4E10-AC19-92F977273271.thumb.gif.33fdc5a0a93a25de9ca4501846c7435b.gif

 

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

Ensemble watch (GEFS) - in the 0z set, there were 8 decent perturbations, in the 6z set, there were only 4 decent perturbations.

(For the period Feb 1 - Feb 4)

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Posted
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m

gfs-0-384.png?6

 

Best chart for potential I've seen all winter. Pity it's at 384hours!

Edited by Alexis
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
4 minutes ago, Alexis said:

gfs-0-384.png?6

 

Best chart for potential I've seen all winter. Pity it's at 240hours!

It’s worse than that I’m afraid.... that’s at +384... D16

I've been probably a bit pessimistic over the last couple of days. But we’ve seen before things can change quickly. At the end of December we were staring down the barrel of an Atlantic onslaught, which within a couple of days changed to much better looking cold chances.  

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: North Yorkshire
  • Location: North Yorkshire
46 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

I figured it out, it's the ios version, it looks better than the android version with controls on the bottom and a menu ?

Just downloaded the Android version, controls are at the top.Running on Sony XZ Premium.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Aperge obviously had a good night out last night 

DAA1AF9F-730F-4306-9515-7FFD8A75FE5A.thumb.png.078c3d5e3d26ebc7c77544df249a7cba.png

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

iconeu-1-28-0.png?20-13 iconeu-1-30-0.png?20-13

ICON take

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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice, thunderstorms
  • Location: Oldbury
33 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Aperge obviously had a good night out last night 

DAA1AF9F-730F-4306-9515-7FFD8A75FE5A.thumb.png.078c3d5e3d26ebc7c77544df249a7cba.png

It got today's snow right along with the Icon. The Midlands is getting heavy snow right now. So well done to Aperge and Icon. :yahoo:

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41 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Aperge obviously had a good night out last night 

DAA1AF9F-730F-4306-9515-7FFD8A75FE5A.thumb.png.078c3d5e3d26ebc7c77544df249a7cba.png

Snowline very close to the South Wales coast on that chart, perhaps some surprise dusting of snow anywhere from Swansea Bay to Chepstow. Perhaps it's picking up on these cold sea temperatures in the eastern half of the Bristol Channel. You wouldn't need very cold upper air to bring the snow level down when the sea is that cold. Could be interesting especially as we move into February and the water temperatures haven't reached their coldest yet either. 

image.jpeg

Edited by Draig Goch
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Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
11 minutes ago, snowstorm27x said:

It got today's snow right along with the Icon. The Midlands is getting heavy snow right now. So well done to Aperge and Icon. :yahoo:

Mmmm. Not according to Netweather's rain radar it isn't (unless you happen to live on top of the Pennines or a tall Welsh hill). That said, I'd love you to be right and see some of the white stuff tomorrow as per ICON and APERGE because looking at the models this morning we are a woefully long way from anything cold. Thankfully, as @bobbydog pointed out at the top of this page, sometimes patience can be rewarded as per 1991 (now THAT would be unexpected based on current set of ENS). Always tells a story when I open up the Models thread and the most recent comments are in Moans & Banter! Still, wouldn't be fun chasing the cold if it came easily I suppose. Let's hope tonight's runs offer a silver lining to cling onto...

 

 

Screen Shot 2018-01-20 at 13.02.45.png

Edited by supernova
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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

More takes.

nmm_uk1-1-30-0.png?20-12

Snow leading edge turning to rain after a few hours.

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Posted
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, ice, cold
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
7 minutes ago, supernova said:

Mmmm. Not according to Netweather's rain radar it isn't (unless you happen to live on top of the Pennines or a tall Welsh hill).

 

 

Screen Shot 2018-01-20 at 13.02.45.png

Well, I'm in Telford, at around 150m asl, in the NW of The Midlands region and we have had steadily falling snow for close on two hours now, coming down almost vertically, and it has settled on rooves, cars, grass, trees, and is now even starting to settle on the tarmac, despite an hour of sleet and lots of rain before that. 

It wan't forecast at all, on any of the sites I check - Netweather, XC, MetO, BBC, Metcheck, and in here. I'd planned to walk to the shops today, specifically because it was going to be dry but tomorrow would be rainy... 

Trust me, we are not on the top of a tall Welsh hill, nor up the Pennines, nor are we typically terrifically snow-prone. But we have lots of it... :)

I am still learning the patterns for this area, having lived in Edinburgh until 3 years ago, but my understanding is that we rarely get snow except from the NW (our 14 inches, December 8-12 2017...!), so this is not normal for round here...!

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Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

Aperge obviously had a good night out last night 

DAA1AF9F-730F-4306-9515-7FFD8A75FE5A.thumb.png.078c3d5e3d26ebc7c77544df249a7cba.png

Well it was the only model right for us today!

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
49 minutes ago, supernova said:

Mmmm. Not according to Netweather's rain radar it isn't (unless you happen to live on top of the Pennines or a tall Welsh hill). That said, I'd love you to be right and see some of the white stuff tomorrow as per ICON and APERGE because looking at the models this morning we are a woefully long way from anything cold. Thankfully, as @bobbydog pointed out at the top of this page, sometimes patience can be rewarded as per 1991 (now THAT would be unexpected based on current set of ENS). Always tells a story when I open up the Models thread and the most recent comments are in Moans & Banter! Still, wouldn't be fun chasing the cold if it came easily I suppose. Let's hope tonight's runs offer a silver lining to cling onto...

 

 

Screen Shot 2018-01-20 at 13.02.45.png

The radar prec type is model based so isn't always right add in a bit of evapourite cooling in the heavier areas and it will snow. 

Tomorrow looking a bit marginal for us as the precipitation is a bit far back from the low uppers so we are going to need a bit of evaporative cooling to help us out. The later tuns seem to backing away from blow torch westerlies so this coming week maybe more interesting than I originally thought.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

Aperge obviously had a good night out last night 

DAA1AF9F-730F-4306-9515-7FFD8A75FE5A.thumb.png.078c3d5e3d26ebc7c77544df249a7cba.png

The HIRLAM 0.1, AROME and the ICON was on town with APERGE then.........................Or are they on to something :)

hirlamuk-1-29-0_mbv7.pngaromehd-1-32-0_sgp6.pngiconeu_uk1-1-28-0_xdh8.png

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Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
56 minutes ago, supernova said:

Mmmm. Not according to Netweather's rain radar it isn't (unless you happen to live on top of the Pennines or a tall Welsh hill). That said, I'd love you to be right and see some of the white stuff tomorrow as per ICON and APERGE because looking at the models this morning we are a woefully long way from anything cold. Thankfully, as @bobbydog pointed out at the top of this page, sometimes patience can be rewarded as per 1991 (now THAT would be unexpected based on current set of ENS). Always tells a story when I open up the Models thread and the most recent comments are in Moans & Banter! Still, wouldn't be fun chasing the cold if it came easily I suppose. Let's hope tonight's runs offer a silver lining to cling onto...

 

 

Screen Shot 2018-01-20 at 13.02.45.png

Sorry all - was trying to express how inaccurate models can be rather than tell everyone who lives in the Midlands that the snow they're watching out of their windows is in fact fairy dust. I know better than to accuse every single Netweather member in the Midlands of being a teller of porky pies!

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