Model output discussion - mid January

[inghams85]

7 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Half way through another non delivering winter and as the mild spell approaches, it’s time to muster the energy to dredge up some optimism yet again!

Could it be that us snow starved southern dwellers finally get our long overdue cold spell, as we progress through the month of February? 

It’s easy to start thinking it’s never going to happen, ever! based on the last 5 years alone but of course it doesn’t work like that. The Synoptics in general, whilst are hardly screaming HLB, are still not screaming blowtorch zonal either. So we’ve at least got a ticket for the raffle.

MLB centred on the U.K towards month end looking the strong form horse right now. Could the timing be good for a change? Agreed 9 out of 10 loiter before sinking but... yes the MJO looks to be losing strength as it nears the strong trade winds but signs are of a reemergence of greater amplitude out into the Pacific, into phases 7/8. Factor in the lag, hope for a decent atmospheric connect and I think week2 Feb would be the best and possibly final shot to get something half decent heading here from the E \ NE.

 

My thoughts summed up more eloquently than me. I'm happy to hang my hat on this outcome. Model output from January the 31st to see things moving in my opinion 

[Scandinavian High.]

I think we'll see this grow over coming days in the output pressure building from south towards scandi colder dryer weather for south of Britain also cold pool to east looking interesting to maybe folks in south could be in for some proper winter weather in to Feb still a long way ahead also meto have been given hints at colder weather for the south of Britain..

[blizzard81]

16 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

My thoughts summed up more eloquently than me. I'm happy to hang my hat on this outcome. Model output from January the 31st to see things moving in my opinion 

I happen to think you are being a little conservative there. I don't think we will have to wait until then. I could be wrong of course

[inghams85]

6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I happen to think you are being a little conservative there. I don't think we will have to wait until then. I could be wrong of course

What's your take on the timeline? I'm going on expected tropical lag of 14 days 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, inghams85 said:

What's your take on the timeline? I'm going on expected tropical lag of 14 days 

I was thinking w/c 5th Feb so not so different to your thoughts. It would also mark the 27th anniversary of Feb 91 ahem!

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Well hadn't really had much look in my neck of the woods yet. Snow falling then staying for at least a day has not happened this winter yet. Sunday according to the GFS. I may be able to take my daughter sledging she so eagerly wants to do until the afternoon mild creeps in. We really only get very cold spells from an easterly or north easterly so not gonna get any hopes up until I see a trend to that outcome. Maybe late Feb we will. Not gonna comment on the ECM has I think it's turning unreliable and an attention seeker in the winter months anyhow. GFS plays catch up to ukmo then thinks it's the top dog. Ukmo is OK but we can't see half of its outcome anyway lol rant over. Anyway I love this forum and your comments and posts keep me from moving to the Arctic circle for my snow and cold fixes,. Roll on 6z boom charts lol. 

[BlackburnChris]

28 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

Well hadn't really had much look in my neck of the woods yet. Snow falling then staying for at least a day has not happened this winter yet. Sunday according to the GFS. I may be able to take my daughter sledging she so eagerly wants to do until the afternoon mild creeps in. We really only get very cold spells from an easterly or north easterly so not gonna get any hopes up until I see a trend to that outcome. Maybe late Feb we will. Not gonna comment on the ECM has I think it's turning unreliable and an attention seeker in the winter months anyhow. GFS plays catch up to ukmo then thinks it's the top dog. Ukmo is OK but we can't see half of its outcome anyway lol rant over. Anyway I love this forum and your comments and posts keep me from moving to the Arctic circle for my snow and cold fixes,. Roll on 6z boom charts lol. 

In Blackburn at 180m in NW England all we have had all week is sleet and hail .... With warmer air moving in , dont have much faith in the Gfs 18z snow chart for Sunday .

[jvenge]

A new netweather trend to turn the output thread into a gossip site during the night? I feel for the mod who needs to clean up each morning.

Anyway. The GFS leads to quite strong high pressure situated over the UK and influences much of Europe. This will divide opinion. On the one hand, settled. On the other, i'd think daytime high single digits. No snow chances. Probably also a struggle for frosts.

Later on, it could ridge towards Greenland, but since I'm already talking FI at T240, I'll leave it there. On the edit, it really did take another route and one that would make most cold lovers sigh.

 

Edited January 20, 2018 by jvenge

[Ali1977]

Lots of downbeat posts lately, personally though I think feb , especially mid to end could be great for coldies....NH PV looks interesting on most GEFS in FI and it would take much to get a huge Arctic /Greeny high in place looking at them. Couple of weeks of pain for some late winter gain I reckon. 

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

1 hour ago, jvenge said:

A new netweather trend to turn the output thread into a gossip site during the night? I feel for the mod who needs to clean up each morning.

Anyway. The GFS leads to quite strong high pressure situated over the UK and influences much of Europe. This will divide opinion. On the one hand, settled. On the other, i'd think daytime high single digits. No snow chances. Probably also a struggle for frosts.

Later on, it could ridge towards Greenland, but since I'm already talking FI at T240, I'll leave it there. On the edit, it really did take another route and one that would make most cold lovers sigh.

 

Either way I'm happy as its a big change (for the better) from the rain & gales we've had in SW UK for the first half of January anyway 

[Mucka]

33 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Lots of downbeat posts lately, personally though I think feb , especially mid to end could be great for coldies....NH PV looks interesting on most GEFS in FI and it would take much to get a huge Arctic /Greeny high in place looking at them. Couple of weeks of pain for some late winter gain I reckon. 

Certainly plenty of ensemble members with HLB in FI and some cold runs in deep FI Ali

Hopefully GFS is on to something and we will start seeing some more interesting output from the Ops over the next few days.

[chris55]

Certainly a growing trend (on the GFS op at least) for a large and substantial area of high pressure to build in our vacinity as we move into the mid term (beyond day 7).

A settled and potentially foggy period could be on the cards, would make a nice change for those working outside!

Then once the high builds we have plenty of interest in where it may end up with any potential retrogression .

 

[Johnp]

6 hours ago, inghams85 said:

Hahahaha! I will probably do what I do first thing in the morning. Google search - GFS METEOCIAL , ECM METEOCIAL. Breakfast. Coffee. Cry into my bowl of Wheatabix

Why not bookmark the site instead..?

That'll buy you some time to have a few bites before the tears start flowing!

This mornings ECM no where near as HP dominated  as GFS unfortunately.

[Nick F]

1 hour ago, chris55 said:

Certainly a growing trend (on the GFS op at least) for a large and substantial area of high pressure to build in our vacinity as we move into the mid term (beyond day 7).

A settled and potentially foggy period could be on the cards, would make a nice change for those working outside!

Then once the high builds we have plenty of interest in where it may end up with any potential retrogression .

 

00z EC op much less enthused to build the MLB over UK, but will have to see where it sits with the ensemble guidance. After a few days of double figures early-mid week, models appear to be agreeing on turning colder towards the end of the week, as we get a little amplification over the  Atlantic to allow a brief polar N to NWly flow next Friday. After that, models diverge on position and shape of the jet, GFS amplifies a trough over the NW Atlantic - which forces MLB into western Europe, whilst EC doesn't amplify near as much and keeps the upper flow flatter over the Atlantic.

Edited January 20, 2018 by Nick F

[Summer Sun]

UKMO tries to bring something cooler in at t144

Only for the high to win out and bring a milder flow back

[ANYWEATHER]

I think there is nothing wrong with commenting on mod even when it's right out to a very unreliable time frame, but also nothing wrong with putting your own interpretation on it regarding how likely or unlikely the synoptics at that far away timescale are likely to verify. I just think we need to respect all other posters ideas even if we don't agree with them and given the state of a level of uncertainty in the computer model output it's wise not to take any output to seriously even regarding this coming week

[Nick F]

Looking at day 10 ensemble means, 00z EPS appears further south into mainland Europe with the Azores ridge extension in the means vs GEFS. Though the EC op more progressive with lower heights over UK than the ens mean.

EPS  GEFS

EPS and GEFS mean/anomaly seem to retract the Atlantic trough days 11-15, EPS with a ridge in the means across N and W Europe up toward Scandi by day 15, GEFS making more of a trough in the means over Scandi and E Europe with the ridge retrogressing.

Think the models may have a few wobbles / differences in medium-longer range ahead as they deal with anticyclonic wave-breaking over the Bering Sea and into the arctic ahead of Siberian trough, so we could see some changes afoot as we ahead toward the end of the Jan. 

 

Edited January 20, 2018 by Nick F

[bluearmy]

I found the 00z gefs quite intriguing- mind you they were doing that amplification thing a few days ago and it dropped away so await the eps to sniff the same thing - maybe the clusters will show some appetite on this. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

38 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO tries to bring something cooler in at t144

Only for the high to win out and bring a milder flow back

It’s transitory on all models and that doesn’t show the High winning out as there is strong westerly flow, so the high Fails to build in.  What is interesting to note is that UKMO and more so ECM as it goes further, is that there is a shift south of the LP coming in and after the High is squeezed south.  I think we could see some more deep depression activity come in and the further south the more wintry for some.  For me tentative signs for the end of month turnaround to coldest spell of winter.  I think GFS is headed the wrong way 

 

BFTP

Edited January 20, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

GFS 6z @132h, high pressure pushing slightly further north in the Atlantic and low pressure slightly stronger NE of Shetland compared to the 0z

Edited January 20, 2018 by Draig Goch

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

GFS 6z also keeps the strong area of high pressure across much of the UK next weekend bringing plenty of dry, calm weather with a risk of fog & frost in the mornings.

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

A big pattern change possible by next weekend with 850mb temperature anomalies showing the north becoming much milder including Scandinavia and the south colder especially across Iberia. For the UK, northern areas would be mild, very mild in Scotland, slightly milder than average across the south but SW England, Wales & SW Ireland would be around average. 

[Scandinavian High.]

9 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

A big pattern change possible by next weekend with 850mb temperature anomalies showing the north becoming much milder including Scandinavia and the south colder especially across Iberia. For the UK, northern areas would be mild, very mild in Scotland, slightly milder than average across the south but SW England, Wales & SW Ireland would be around average. 

Mild don't think so not in the south 

Edited January 20, 2018 by abbie123

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

Hints of much warmer 850mb temperatures across the USA after a prolonged bitterly cold period, could that finally allow a decent widespread cold snap/period for Western Europe as we head into February??? There's hopes 

[ArHu3]

14 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

A big pattern change possible by next weekend with 850mb temperature anomalies showing the north becoming much milder including Scandinavia and the south colder especially across Iberia. For the UK, northern areas would be mild, very mild in Scotland, slightly milder than average across the south but SW England, Wales & SW Ireland would be around average. 

Which app are you using?