Model output discussion - mid January

[lorenzo]

1 minute ago, Chertseystreamer79 said:

Having followed this thread for about 3 winters, and with limited knowledge, and living darn south (below m4 by 10 miles!!!) even I recognise that despite some great potential this year it really has been so close but no cigar and i think that's how it might stay down here. I'm blaming the ecm...proper eye candy with no end product! I dont have any models to post, my post will almost definitely get moved to another thread but at least that's something that will have at least verified this winter! Some excellent experts on here...keep up the good work!

Fair observation - welcome to the model thread

[Cleeve Hill]

But isn’t the GFS 18 showing snow for Sunday from N Wales to the east Anglia ? Is this happens it would be the 3rd or 4th snow event this winter, which ain’t bad. 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Cleeve Hill said:

But isn’t the GFS 18 showing snow for Sunday from N Wales to the east Anglia ? Is this happens it would be the 3rd or 4th snow event this winter, which ain’t bad. 

 

Its very transient, no sooner as a cm or 2 has fallen, it will get washed away, maybe more in N.Yorks and further N or E than that.

[pip22]

Oh whats this?!!

The cold air is not so far on 24th. Possible ridging into Greenland.

[snowfish1]

3 hours ago, inghams85 said:

This is not a bad chart going forward. European heights underpinning it in MJO phase 6 and would be more likely from that position to build a classic high level block from there North East/West as we hit phase 7/8. Lots to be positive about and building blocks. We have to go through a UK high to get to an MJO induced Scandi or green one. People are being impatient and the negativity is painful to listen to!

I hardly think five years is impatient u less you want to argue otherwise 

[Trom]

Well GFS 18Z showing a couple of days of South Easterlies which keeps the snow risk this weekend.  Then the Atlantic breaks through and giving us a westerly regime.  By T72 high pressure is edging in leaving us in a southwesterly regime and hence mild but dry especially to the south of the country.  Temperatures up to low/mid-teens for most of England by T90.  By T117 were again in a more westerly regime as the high pressure ebbs east.  We then seem to alternate between westerlies and south westerlies.  Scotland flirts with a short-lived North Westerly by T138 bringing temperatures there down and the rest of the UK is in a North Westerly by T156 which will, therefore, bring a dip in temperatures to lower single digits but nothing that will bring snow away from mountainous areas in the north-west.  By T183 it's back to south westerlies.  Doesn't look inspiring.

[inghams85]

25 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

I hardly think five years is impatient u less you want to argue otherwise 

???? have you really just said that? You do know your not entitled to a cold spell just because you havnt had snow for 5 years. The climate does what it wants it's not a case of injustice lol It's the weather! The point that's been made is teleconnectively that mid level holding pattern with possible movement East of the MJO is a good building block for cold second week in Feb

[snowfish1]

4 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

???? have you really just said that? You do know your not entitled to a cold spell just because you havnt had snow for 5 years. The climate does what it wants it's not a case of injustice lol It's the weather! The point that's been made is teleconnectively that mid level holding pattern with possible movement East of the MJO is a good building block for cold second week in Feb

Let's hope you're right it's been appalling here in East Kent 

[inghams85]

1 minute ago, snowfish1 said:

Let's hope you're right it's been appalling here in East Kent 

Westerly driven wind and rain is less inclined to deliver. If it was showing this at that time period I'd be worried but we definitely have one more tropics and strat induced chance in that time period

[mountain shadow]

59 minutes ago, Chertseystreamer79 said:

Having followed this thread for about 3 winters, and with limited knowledge, and living darn south (below m4 by 10 miles!!!) even I recognise that despite some great potential this year it really has been so close but no cigar 

Actually, there really hasnt.  We've had no Northerly blocking at all.

In fact some parts have been very fortunate from the dregs available. 

[snowfish1]

1 minute ago, inghams85 said:

Westerly driven wind and rain is less inclined to deliver. If it was showing this at that time period I'd be worried but we definitely have one more tropics and strat induced chance in that time period

What's your location buddy? Also, as Nick Sussex would put it GFS is a horror show with the high slap bang over us and not retrogressing anywhere fast

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, snowfish1 said:

What's your location buddy? Also, as Nick Sussex would put it GFS is a horror show with the high slap bang over us and not retrogressing anywhere fast

I'm not sure Nick would and nor would I - there are signs of retrogression in that run.

[igloo]

well the 18z bore feast is just a tad better than the last with the HP cell just a few miles further north which is better surely if we can get a few more runs of this we could be looking at something completly different than +8 uppers but its a start atleast

[karlos1983]

Just now, snowfish1 said:

What's your location buddy? Also, as Nick Sussex would put it GFS is a horror show with the high slap bang over us and not retrogressing anywhere fast

And that’s where it will stay most likely. Talk of high pressure over or to the south of us, heading north is nothing more than hopecasting atm imo. Need to see how this pattern evolves over the next few days.

[inghams85]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

And that’s where it will stay most likely. Talk of high pressure over or to the south of us, heading north is nothing more than hopecasting atm imo. Need to see how this pattern evolves over the next few days.

It's not hopecasting if you factor in any expected 7/8 movement of the MJO. Just because it doesn't show now doesn't mean the potential isn't high it means we havnt moved into that phase yet so the models won't show it. It's just as silly to assume it will sink. We just don't know do we? We can't dispute the chances are there depending on the star of trade winds come then 

[inghams85]

7 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

What's your location buddy? Also, as Nick Sussex would put it GFS is a horror show with the high slap bang over us and not retrogressing anywhere fast

South Yorkshire buddy (Rothetham) on current viewing it's painful but don't write off the rest of February is all I'm saying. It's a case of wait n see we can't change anything 

[danthetan]

High pressure slap bang over the UK is always a good starting block to get winds in from the north or east, *IF* it retrogresses north you will always draw winds from a cold source.  Trying to get a high pressure building from the east seems very rare these days and always ends up close but no cigar.

[blizzard81]

6 minutes ago, danthetan said:

High pressure slap bang over the UK is always a good starting block to get winds in from the north or east, *IF* it retrogresses north you will always draw winds from a cold source.  Trying to get a high pressure building from the east seems very rare these days and always ends up close but no cigar.

Too right. If the high settles over us it will also help to get those ground temps down. I cannot remember a major cold spell (and let's face it, this is what we are on this forum for) that followed a period of wet and windy weather. 

[snowfish1]

30 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I'm not sure Nick would and nor would I - there are signs of retrogression in that run.

At the end and in la la land 

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

At the end and in la la land 

Slightly more distinctive retrogression signal on the 18z GEFS than12z.

Edited January 19, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[blizzard81]

For all those who are downbeat about the output today, I will ask just one question. Would you prefer the high to be hundreds of miles further south? This would leave us in the dreaded situation of south west to north east axis air flow. The models were showing this a couple of days ago but have moved away from this scenario today. This is a good trend. 

[snowfish1]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Slightly more distinctive retrogression signal on the 18z than12z.

Ok true on that one run and yes thinking about it under clear skies temps will drop away won't they? But if the daytime temps are low teens how does that fare for the rest of Jan into Feb?

Edited January 19, 2018 by snowfish1

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, snowfish1 said:

Ok true on that one run and yes thinking about it under clear skies temps will drop away won't they? But if the daytime temps are low teens how does that fare for the rest of Jan into Feb?

Look at the GEFS though - yes agree ops are a waste of space at that range.

[Duane S.]

Half way through another non delivering winter and as the mild spell approaches, it’s time to muster the energy to dredge up some optimism yet again!

Could it be that us snow starved southern dwellers finally get our long overdue cold spell, as we progress through the month of February? 

It’s easy to start thinking it’s never going to happen, ever! based on the last 5 years alone but of course it doesn’t work like that. The Synoptics in general, whilst are hardly screaming HLB, are still not screaming blowtorch zonal either. So we’ve at least got a ticket for the raffle.

MLB centred on the U.K towards month end looking the strong form horse right now. Could the timing be good for a change? Agreed 9 out of 10 loiter before sinking but... yes the MJO looks to be losing strength as it nears the strong trade winds but signs are of a reemergence of greater amplitude out into the Pacific, into phases 7/8. Factor in the lag, hope for a decent atmospheric connect and I think week2 Feb would be the best and possibly final shot to get something half decent heading here from the E \ NE.

 

Edited January 19, 2018 by s4lancia

[blizzard81]

Gfs seems intent on bringing some excitement for the first weekend of Feb. Ecm ens look awful. However, the ecm has gone down in my estimations these last few years. I really do believe this model has seen it's best days. Every empire! 

Edited January 19, 2018 by blizzard81