Model output discussion - mid January

[weirpig]

23 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Just a question, why do people only post the NWP charts of France? I mean, it's not just one poster that does it, it's quite a few. I mean, most here are either from England, Wales, Scotland or Ireland, and our weather is predominantly westerly derived, so why do it? It barely shows England, Wales and some of Sth. Ireland!

Because it's the French view and this one comes out about 20 minutes before the British view. Of course no good for Scotland etc. 

[feb1991blizzard]

17 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Not a particularly high anom though, And a bit further away than to be an influence on our chances of an E'ly.

 

**EDIT** Just saw the other charts you added. They are encouraging!

EC 46 - as good an anomaly as you will get at that range. ECM clusters - cluster 2 the stonker.

[feb1991blizzard]

Arpege looking good again for sunday.

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Arpege looking good again for sunday.

Yes turning to snow as soon as the precipitation hits Wales 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, weirpig said:

Yes turning to snow as soon as the precipitation hits Wales 

Until we start seeing support from the big 3 or the Euro4 or UKV though, I'm going to expect the worse.

[SMU]

Updated JMA shows Sunday’s front sharpening up over the UK perhaps allowing a bit of the S word further south...

18z V 12z

[snowbob]

Let’s hope so Steve,time will tell

0z may or may not firm up on this hope for us southerners.

Edited January 18, 2018 by snowbob

[SMU]

Well all of a sudden 180-192 in the ENS now looking better - almost ‘very good’

PTB 5 for example

 

Edited January 18, 2018 by Steve Murr

[snowbob]

Hoping we can flip back to a cold agenda as quick as we flopped to a not

seen it happen this quick before

2013 rings a bell

[snowbunting]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Well all of a sudden 180-192 in the ENS now looking better - almost ‘very good’

PTB 5 for example

 

The ensembles are all over te place by that time... so yes 50:50 for another cold soell. 

[SMU]

-14. Into England would be great

 

[bobbydog]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

-14. Into England would be great

 

thats definitely the kind of pattern that current modelling could develop into. lets keep an eye on it...

[A.J]

42 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

-14. Into England would be great

 

Steve, I;m as blind as a bat....what time frame is that?......cheers

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

ANYWAY 

Models showing a decent snow event for a lot of us on Sunday. 18z looking as good if not better than the 12z, always more likely further North. 

Edited January 19, 2018 by Ross Andrew Hemphill

[inghams85]

2 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

ANYWAY 

Models showing a decent snow event for a lot of us on Sunday. 18z looking as good if not better than the 12z, always more likely further North. 

It will be very interesting to see what the morning runs show. There appears to be South easterly winds ahead of the band which is helping ala March 2013

[SMU]

1 hour ago, ajpoolshark said:

Steve, I;m as blind as a bat....what time frame is that?......cheers

264 ISH day 11

[Captain Shortwave]

Ah another peaceful Friday morning, checks forum.

Seriously!!! I have just had to remove over 30 posts which were either completely off topic, not model related, or just being insulting to other members. If you have an issue with a post just report it, do not respond to it and add even further problems down the line, especially when it is late at night.

Just stick to model discussion and keep it civil. Thank you.

[Stozzy]

Anyone got any charts on the transient snow event for Sunday ?

[shotski]

Nice little trend setting up with a strong MLB southern Britain. It will be interesting to see where the extended EPS takes this in the next few days. Cold already Building to the East unlike those phantom easterlies. 

[stewfox]

2 minutes ago, Stozzy said:

Anyone got any charts on the transient snow event for Sunday ?

Yes snow for the Scottish mountains that's why its so quite in here 

GFs0Z Sunday 3pm

 

ps I think that is where Scotland is 

[Stozzy]

1 minute ago, stewfox said:

Yes snow for the Scottish mountains that's why its so quite in here 

GFs0Z Sunday 3pm

 

ps I think that is where Scotland is 

Haha . Thought it was gonna be more than that lol

[stewfox]

26 minutes ago, Stozzy said:

Haha . Thought it was gonna be more than that lol

Link here you can look at 3hr intervals obviously not to be taken too seriously

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/gfs

[Duane S.]

26 minutes ago, Weather toad said:

Nice little trend setting up with a strong MLB southern Britain. It will be interesting to see where the extended EPS takes this in the next few days. Cold already Building to the East unlike those phantom easterlies. 

Agreed. There appears to be an underlining trend for MLB to end up being positioned around our locale. I’d be happy to take that and see if we can then get sufficient amplification to retrogress it further north. 

Whilst forecasts and historical events of massive northward bound WAA surges and subsequently high pressures cells retrogressing from the Azores or Central Europe straight into strong HLB are great, it really doesn’t occur very often at all. Much more common is a stepped movement to high level blocking via MLB. Of course (and unfortunately), more common still is that MLB ends up being the most Northerly extent of the blocking! 

 

[Chesil View]

Just for fun but a Steve M has highlighted a significant number of the gfs ensemble run going cold or very cold in the extended range. Both Scandi and , Greenie highs showing up as a result of where our mid latitude block goes once it leaves our shores. All pure speculation at that range of course but interesting to note that the blowtorch is not on the table.

[Tim Bland]

A chance of snow in the south tomorrow morning ..