Model output discussion - mid January

[N/A]

1 hour ago, Deep Snow please said:

More like late September than late January next week:

 

Not pleasant at all; a fairly set in pattern as well by the looks of it. Doesn't break down until Friday

 

A welcome relief from all the cold, rainy and very windy weather we've had in southwest Wales though. Good to see the lows shifting north again to give us a decent break from anymore severe gales

Edited January 18, 2018 by Dafydd Tomos

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Dafydd Tomos said:

A welcome relief from all the cold, rainy and very windy weather we've had in southwest Wales though. Good to see the lows shifting north again to give us a decent break from anymore severe gales

U have same thoughts as me and SS! agree hope it comes off

[tight isobar]

Obvious areas/pins of note;

Im personaly not of bother as to ppn-any precip charts  as until tomorrow!..

The double scenarios are... the hold of surface cold stands firm- and as feature back-shortwaves push against the unstable air..exactments flurish with a mix in of colder air from the south east quadrant, thus interacting milder mixing!..

Or as others have noted the at-air infiltrates but with a slack surface flow..

And engagment offers up up mass-marginal mix -AGAIN-!!

there is certainly options for surprise suck it and see elements(no doubt at all)..

And your precip charts will be buzzing in 24 hrs... and until then its worthless as all nowcast-developing/transitionalities are.

As regarding further scope for notable cold..the signal reamains...but the check out is cloud'ed..

The 18z will most likely again offer up a tad more insight...as we run down the forcing line!!!!

Edited January 18, 2018 by tight isobar

[alexisj9]

56 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I know they are effectively a day out of date now but looking at the 96hr fax chart and then the 120hr fax, doesn't that show the front hitting a brick wall and sinking south? 

I hope so.

[shotski]

I’d settle for a UK high to end the month, where it goes from there is anyone’s guess. 

[mulzy]

2 minutes ago, Weather toad said:

I’d settle for a UK high to end the month, where it goes from there is anyone’s guess. 

That's an anomaly chart so the High Pressure will most likely be centered across southern England and northern France.  Anyway this is a mean chart but I am sure there will be quite a few true UK Highs in the mix.

[ghoneym]

Sunday. At surface level a good depiction I think of the milder / windy / precipitation loaded front pushing in from the west and moving North as it makes landfall over the UK squeezing any cold surface temperatures left down South in a North and East direction. Precipitation in the form of snow would be exposed to most of Scotland for a time before turning to mush at lower elevations their also.

[tight isobar]

5 minutes ago, ghoneym said:

Sunday. At surface level a good depiction I think of the milder / windy / precipitation loaded front pushing in from the west and moving North as it makes landfall over the UK squeezing any cold surface temperatures left down South in a North and East direction. Precipitation in the form of snow would be exposed to most of Scotland for a time before turning to mush at lower elevations their also.

Again those are 'variable' snaps/charts!.

And the pendulum, is fraught at this point.

We will see that micro-scale notions are of importance..

We'll jump on the next suite (18zgfs) for referal..

 

[ghoneym]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Again those are 'variable' snaps/charts!.

And the pendulum, is fraught at this point.

We will see that micro-scale notions are of importance..

We'll jump on the next suite (18zgfs) for referal..

 

Of course...

[shotski]

16 minutes ago, mulzy said:

That's an anomaly chart so the High Pressure will most likely be centered across southern England and northern France.  Anyway this is a mean chart but I am sure there will be quite a few true UK Highs in the mix.

I know it’s an anomaly chart, that’s why I posted it. 

[tight isobar]

And the point in fact is..that migration of the HP CELL is with momentum more-than feasible for north/north east placement..and synoptics may evolve into this format.

The evolutionary process is imo- on!..

And we are in good shape for a noted tap- into now fridged airmass .

Russian warming is imo to vast/eastwards modeled.

And the situ @nw-most..(polar vortex) is waiting to fall of the shelf.

Again speculative atm...but honestly possible..

Then transfer from north-east/east is the only option...

Nice thought!!!!

[damianslaw]

All swings and roundabouts this winter so far, cold to mild to cold to mild, no-one winning the battle, from Sunday onwards the models are reverting back to the milder atlantic theme, but with the azores high anchoring itself close to our shores it doesn't look like an especially wet week, heaviest rain reserved for the NW with classic warm sector, cold front combo. Later in the week, ECM and GFS showing the azores high ridging NE into southern Britain with the jet far to the north, we could therefore see a quiet end to the month, possibly becoming quite cold if heights build into the continent, return of frost.

 

[shaky]

16 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

And the point in fact is..that migration of the HP CELL is with momentum more-than feasible for north/north east placement..and synoptics may evolve into this format.

The evolutionary process is imo- on!..

And we are in good shape for a noted tap- into now fridged airmass .

Russian warming is imo to vast/eastwards modeled.

And the situ @nw-most..(polar vortex) is waiting to fall of the shelf.

Again speculative atm...but honestly possible..

Then transfer from north-east/east is the only option...

Nice thought!!!!

Low held slightly further back on the 18z iconn compared to 12z at 57 hours!!could increase snow chances leàding edge!!

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, Weather toad said:

I’d settle for a UK high to end the month, where it goes from there is anyone’s guess. 

How boring!  

Wastes precious winter time IMO unless it can go onto something.. 

It would be probably quite cold in southern British frosty looking at that, inversion set up. MLB can be known to stretch to more interesting places so not a bad chart I’d say.

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, Dafydd Tomos said:

A welcome relief from all the cold, rainy and very windy weather we've had in southwest Wales though. Good to see the lows shifting north again to give us a decent break from anymore severe gales

An unwelcome slap in the face for coldies. Has it really been cold? Not really been cold in London while you do need some layers well it is winter! Some parts of Siberia, Yakutia region got down to -62C few nights ago. In fact official thermometer broke it was that cold some unofffical readings of -67C been reported now that is cold. This winter has been fairly benign in all areas so talking about a break? The recent gales was a long time coming. I find gales more interesting weather than standard fare, rather have that to mix up the tedium of searching for proper cold and snow. 

 

[Snowman.]

11 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

How boring!  

Wastes precious winter time IMO unless it can go onto something.. 

It would be probably quite cold in southern British frosty looking at that, inversion set up. MLB can be known to stretch to more interesting places so not a bad chart I’d say.

IMHO if we do go this route and IF we are destined for cold then the high will build north through the UK extending N/NE. If that happens is another story it's just how if a crystal ball said "it will be cold" then that is the only way i see it happening.

[weirpig]

Mmm after the crazy arpege 6z. Now this from the icon. Surely not  edit wrong chart   Doh  no it's the right chart I think  I don't bloody know 

Edited January 18, 2018 by weirpig

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Mmm after the crazy arpege 6z. Now this from the icon. Surely not 

GFS having none of it though - typical if it doesn't, never get a SW correction when you need one do you?

[tight isobar]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GFS having none of it though - typical if it doesn't, never get a SW correction when you need one do you?

Thats my gist!!..

The corrections and overhaeds are fraught; due to model implements..ie- focus @short time incursion!..

Sector air masses are overiden, via the american(gfs)..

24+suites will elaborate!!

Edited January 18, 2018 by tight isobar

[Rocheydub]

31 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GFS having none of it though - typical if it doesn't, never get a SW correction when you need one do you?

Just a question, why do people only post the NWP charts of France? I mean, it's not just one poster that does it, it's quite a few. I mean, most here are either from England, Wales, Scotland or Ireland, and our weather is predominantly westerly derived, so why do it? It barely shows England, Wales and some of Sth. Ireland!

[bluearmy]

Ec46 has scandi high anomoly week s three/four. no reason for it to be right of course

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Rocheydub said:

Just a question, why do people only post the NWP charts of France? I mean, it's not just one poster that does it, it's quite a few. I mean, most here are either from England, Wales, Scotland or Ireland, and our weather is predominantly westerly derived, so why do it? It barely shows England, Wales and some of Sth. Ireland!

You'll have to ask them that question - I do do it occasionally but only when there s no UK view.

[feb1991blizzard]

Here is that 46 in question.

 

Also.

Edited January 18, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[Rocheydub]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here is that 46 in question.

Not a particularly high anom though, And a bit further away than to be an influence on our chances of an E'ly.

 

**EDIT** Just saw the other charts you added. They are encouraging!

Edited January 18, 2018 by Rocheydub
new info!

[Rocheydub]

1 minute ago, inghams85 said:

Because it shows the majority of England where 90% of us are from. Obviously no disrespect to you but most of us don't really care about Irish weather as can be expected

That's fine, but as I said, the weather on these islands are generally westerly derived, so you get to see what the weather to come over to you is. There are NWP charts of UK and Ireland too you know!