Model output discussion - mid January

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Ay, very quick EC, never known it out before 7, but sadly my favourite part is last bit Deep FI

I have - almost every day its out before 7 - about 6.55pm usually.

[ArHu3]

3 minutes ago, SylvainTV said:

Yes weird I don't understand. The files just appeared out of nowhere with even a future date.. The data seems to be correct though. It doesn't look like today 00Z or yesterday 12Z.

a compensation for yesterday's delay?

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

a compensation for yesterday's delay?

Strange considering ecmwf own website only at day 6. Does this mean that the chosen few European weather bureau’s usually get the ecm op and ens half an hour before us mere mortals ???

i can confirm that it does match ecm output at day 7 so it’s genuine 

Edited January 18, 2018 by bluearmy

[ArHu3]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Strange considering ecmwf own website only at day 6. Does this mean that the chosen few European weather bureau’s usually get the ecm op and ens half an hour before us mere mortals ???

business-wise that would make sense, giving the outcome early to certain bureaus, so traders have a head start on the competition (buying/selling gas or options on gas atc)

[SylvainTV]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Strange considering ecmwf own website only at day 6. Does this mean that the chosen few European weather bureau’s usually get the ecm op and ens half an hour before us mere mortals ???

i can confirm that it does match ecm output at day 7 so it’s genuine 

Yes something is fishy there  This shows that there is a delay for us, or they improved the computation speed a lot. I think we usually have a delay because the datetime of the files are the "usual ones".  We will see if it's the same for ENS. Yesterday they changed their FTP server, so probably something didn't get implemented correctly. I think the delay will be readded when they will notice it has disppeared

Edited January 18, 2018 by SylvainTV

[Tim Bland]

Arpege looks like it has nailed Sunday ?

 

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, SylvainTV said:

Yes something is fishy there  This shows that there is a delay for us, or they improved the computation speed a lot. I think we usually have a delay because the datetime of the files are the "usual ones".  We will see if it's the same for ENS. Yesterday they changed their FTP server, so probably something didn't get implemented correctly. I think the delay will be readded when they will notice it has disppeared

Well their own website is normal speed, as is weatherbell so you seem to have received the ‘special’ datafeed Sylvain! 

[blizzard81]

13 minutes ago, SylvainTV said:

Yes something is fishy there  This shows that there is a delay for us, or they improved the computation speed a lot. I think we usually have a delay because the datetime of the files are the "usual ones".  We will see if it's the same for ENS. Yesterday they changed their FTP server, so probably something didn't get implemented correctly. I think the delay will be readded when they will notice it has disppeared

Maybe a sign that something is afoot. Maybe the front stalls on Sunday which may then render all subsequent days null and void. Trying to put my optimistic head on for once. Although I think it is borderline denial lol

[Singularity]

ECM displaying one of the three possibilities I mentioned earlier, but also hinting at how it could turn into the third and coldest later in time - something I forgot to mention.

A large HP across the UK is either very enjoyable or very dreary depending on how much cloudy Atlantic air gets into the circulation. I’d be okay taking that gamble of the HP could continue gaining latitude over the following days.

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Maybe a sign that something is afoot. Maybe the front stalls on Sunday which may then render all subsequent days null and void. Trying to put my optimistic head on for once. Although I think it is borderline denial lol

It’s not borderline - it’s full on nuts! ???

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It’s not borderline - it’s full on nuts! ???

I can dream ? lol

[Tim Bland]

ECM has a spell of snow Sun morn still. Even an inch in the south which will be epic giving the epic fail this winter so far! I bet it will amount to 20mins of sleet south of the Pennines though ?  Interesting that the local BBC forecast mentions some wet snow sat morn as well. 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Arpege looks like it has nailed Sunday ?

 

 

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It’s not borderline - it’s full on nuts! ???

No - nor is the snow on sunday borderline, uppers about 5c to high in some parts where there is snow.

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, Singularity said:

ECM displaying one of the three possibilities I mentioned earlier, but also hinting at how it could turn into the third and coldest later in time - something I forgot to mention.

A large HP across the UK is either very enjoyable or very dreary depending on how much cloudy Atlantic air gets into the circulation. I’d be okay taking that gamble of the HP could continue gaining latitude over the following days.

I think it's the best we can hope for right now. 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 

No - nor is the snow on sunday borderline, uppers about 5c to high in some parts where there is snow.

I thought these short range models had the highest resolution at 2 to 3 days out? 

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 

No - nor is the snow on sunday borderline, uppers about 5c to high in some parts where there is snow.

The potential for snow on Sunday isn’t nuts - the idea that the Atlantic doesn’t follow in behind beginning next week is ! 

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The potential for snow on Sunday isn’t nuts - the idea that the Atlantic doesn’t follow in behind beginning next week is ! 

I know they are effectively a day out of date now but looking at the 96hr fax chart and then the 120hr fax, doesn't that show the front hitting a brick wall and sinking south? 

[Daniel*]

12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 

No - nor is the snow on sunday borderline, uppers about 5c to high in some parts where there is snow.

I checked ARPEGE uppers odd is an understament it looks like they’ll be OK for a time more especially across northern / eastern England some leading edge snow is very possible. Before turning back to rain for most. 

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The potential for snow on Sunday isn’t nuts - the idea that the Atlantic doesn’t follow in behind beginning next week is ! 

No BA - should have clarified -  I was talking about if the uppers on sunday verified on that chart over central and southern England there's no way there would be snow at the time that well into positive uppers are shown, obviously other models have them a lot lower.

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I checked ARPEGE uppers odd is an understament it looks like they’ll be OK for a time more especially across northern / eastern England some leading edge snow is very possible. Before turning back to rain for most. 

and turning back to rain pretty quickly.

[SylvainTV]

31 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Well their own website is normal speed, as is weatherbell so you seem to have received the ‘special’ datafeed Sylvain! 

Seems to be a temporary bug because now I see already ENS files but they're blocked  Hopefully they will be unblocked in 20 mins...

[SMU]

5 minutes ago, SylvainTV said:

Seems to be a temporary bug because now I see already ENS files but they're blocked  Hopefully they will be unblocked in 20 mins...

Hi @SylvainTV

when will you get UKMO 168

[Daniel*]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

and turning back to rain pretty quickly.

Maybe not that quickly there’s the chance also the cold air might be less inclined to to shift meaning it stays as snow for longer some south / western areas will probably see all rain a few hours of snowfall possible quite extensively in N/E IMO. I’d take ECM’s inch that’s winter wonderland down here.  

I have everything crossed I’m expecting nothing but rain but I have a faint hope it will be different ! 

[nick sussex]

Although this winter hasn’t delivered in more UK wide terms it’s been different in that the really horrid looking charts in terms of mild mush have been short lived .

So good to see the ECM reading the script with the Azores high heading ne.

We are seeing more evidence of a bit more amplitude upstream,  so whilst it’s hard to see the Russian high directly influencing things enough upstream amplitude could help kick the Azores high further ne with a better jet cut back into UK.

[feb1991blizzard]

Ecm ens started coming out earlier as well but only very slightly - about 2 minutes.