Model output discussion - mid January

[N/A]

5 minutes ago, jvenge said:

To be honest, even with the ECM take on the MJO, that would still be a big ask to override La Nina forcing. So more like "La Nina MIGHT not win". I think GWO output from ECM is not daily accessible. I'm sure a few are watching it, though.

In any event. It is likely to February now and it becomes a bigger ask as winter progresses. That line of dominoes is a little longer as the days roll on.

Just to add. This is in reference to HLB. The UK has done okay from ridges and cold zonal this winter. 

As I expected for us in southern UK we have done poor from this set up of cold zonal rubbish with 4 lots of severe gales so far this month. It's good to see hints of a pattern change occurring next week when the jet stream transfers northwards taking the gales with it. 

[feb1991blizzard]

18 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Worth keeping an-eye on transitions sunday..

As a feature looms..and exactions are atm fraught with miss-dynamics.

And obviously the overal, setting into last part jan...far from deciphered...

Lots to watchout for imo!!??

yes that chart just about sums it up - rain.

[Scandinavian High.]

12z coming out I'm looking cold trend later Jan and in to February also hints from meto today colder weather in the south..

[Methuselah]

Maybe it's the time to find employment - as a Grass Growth Assessment Operative:

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

Looks like the heating can be turned right down in the south during Sunday night into the early hours of Monday with temperatures between a balmy 10-12C 

[tight isobar]

13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

yes that chart just about sums it up - rain.

There are (in part) specifics that suggest an, over progression of atlantic sector air...

Its tight as it comes'however' certainly some snow surprise element not to be ignored!..

Imo the push north via upper airs is to quick...we'll see.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

There are (in part) specifics that suggest an, over progression of atlantic sector air...

Its tight as it comes'however' certainly some snow surprise element not to be ignored!..

Imo the push north via upper airs is to quick...we'll see.

Interesting you say that because the Icon now has me down for Heavy snow sunday when its previous output was rain.

[Methuselah]

I hope there aren't too many avalanches in the Alps:

 

[carinthian]

1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Just as an observation of the updated fax at 120h, seems to indicate limited progress of the warm front on Sunday and then fronts /low seem to be sliding into the continent. Maybe I am reading more into this as a matter of hope. There again the UKMO model earlier had strong height rises at 144h after the clearance of the fronts and mild murk in the south. Maybe just to keep us interested in tonights run. Picture below of a friendly wave from near by Obertauren which is totally buried in snow at the moment. Its just crazy snowfest so far this winter.

C

Yes, there is some interest in the UKMO/GFS run tonight. Looks like a squeeze again on the mild flow from mid -week. The protracted mild spell looks again to be downgraded with time.

 C

[N/A]

Ooh high pressure yes please, come to me my friend , so let's see if the 12z will continue to take the lows and their gales north and allow a decent break from the frequent gales that's battered the south in the last fortnight 

Edited January 18, 2018 by Dafydd Tomos

[karyo]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Interesting you say that because the Icon now has me down for Heavy snow sunday when its previous output was rain.

The 12z Aprege is a huge upgrade for Sunday's snow potential. But I have a feeling it is overdoing the wintriness again.

Edited January 18, 2018 by karyo

[weirpig]

6 minutes ago, karyo said:

The 12z Aprege is a huge upgrade for Sunday's snow potential. But I have a feeling it is overdoing the wintriness again.

Lol  ive just seen that   there is know way that is right   Heavy snow  for hours on end.  Nah

Edited January 18, 2018 by weirpig

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Lol  ive just seen that   there is know way that is right   Heavy snow  for hours on end.  Nah

Yes - laughable, there is just no way a setup like that would ever bring that kind of widespread event to lowland Southern England and I doubt it will give me any more than sleetyness tbh - brief heavy snow for North Yorkshire.

[karyo]

4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Lol  ive just seen that   there is know way that is right   Heavy snow  for hours on end.  Nah

It looks like it is seriously overdoing it. At least it shows there is a chance.

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Lol  ive just seen that   there is know way that is right   Heavy snow  for hours on end.  Nah

Given the mass state of mjo/forcing/nina situ there remains a range of feasible possibilities...short range.

Let alone mid/long term prognosis!!!

Its really a case of watching microscale movements...

You really only have to check deep cold pooling..nigh on everywhere you choose to look..nw/ne..

And the particular basis on the feature mentioned(sunday)..is far from being sorted...trust me!!!

[weirpig]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - laughable, there is just no way a setup like that would ever bring that kind of widespread event to lowland Southern England and I doubt it will give me any more than sleetyness tbh - brief heavy snow for North Yorkshire.

Quite  look at these 2 charts.  Precipitation  and at same time uppers  Really??.

[Nick L]

Just now, weirpig said:

Quite  look at these 2 charts.  Precipitation  and at same time uppers  Really??.

The Meteociel snow shading on their charts is often far, far too optimistic. It may be sleet OR snow in fact, which could be 1% snow and 99% rain!

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Quite  look at these 2 charts.  Precipitation  and at same time uppers  Really??.

Yes - snow for huge areas with between 4 and 8c uppers?????????

[weirpig]

Just now, Nick L said:

The Meteociel snow shading on their charts is often far, far too optimistic. It may be sleet OR snow in fact, which could be 1% snow and 99% rain!

What about the snow Accum charts?.

[tight isobar]

Just now, Nick L said:

The Meteociel snow shading on their charts is often far, far too optimistic. It may be sleet OR snow in fact, which could be 1% snow and 99% rain!

Would be of interest to factor in the shunt of warmer AT-AIR getting in...

As the progression looks over-relayed!!.

 

Its my perspective, and worth a note.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Nick L said:

The Meteociel snow shading on their charts is often far, far too optimistic. It may be sleet OR snow in fact, which could be 1% snow and 99% rain!

Yes - always noted this, its a pity Netweather don't do all the models, the PPN charts a lot better resolution of graphics thus much more realistic - still overdoes the GFS PPN type but that's a model dew point calculation / model resolution problem not a graphic representation problem.

[Nick L]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

What about the snow Accum charts?.

No idea. I don't use Meteociel (or the GFS very often for that matter!), use my work's site. But I've often seen those precip charts posted and raised an eyebrow. 

[feb1991blizzard]

1mb temperature chart is toast.

[Methuselah]

Thank goodness Day 15 charts never materialise:

[tight isobar]

Any-persons writing off winter 2018..late jan/feb.

Need to keep there meteorological note books to hand...to re-write the script.

An, easterly/north-easterly incursion is likely...as suggested, modeling is overcome atm via state-and situ.

 

Edited January 18, 2018 by tight isobar